Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets

In this study, we investigated the application of the conformal prediction (CP) concept in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting. In particular, we determined the most important aspects related to the utility of CP, as well as explaining why this simple but highly effective idea has proved useful in other application areas and why its characteristics make it promising for short-term power applications. We compared the performance of CP with various state-of-the-art electricity price forecasting models, such as quantile regression averaging, in an empirical out-of-sample study of three short-term electricity time series. We combined CP with various underlying point forecast models to demonstrate its versatility and behavior under changing conditions. Our findings suggest that CP yields sharp and reliable prediction intervals in short-term power markets. We also inspected the effects of each of the model components to provide path-based guideline regarding how to find the best CP model for each market.     

Governing ‘Sustainable Urban Development’ Through Self‐Build Groups and Co‐Housing: The Cases of Hamburg and Gothenburg

This article critically examines the governing of ‘sustainable urban development’ through self‐build cohousing groups in Gothenburg and Hamburg. The two case cities have been selected because both are currently involved in major urban restructuring, and have launched programmes to support self‐build groups and cohousing as part of their emphasis on promoting urban sustainable development through this process. Departing from a theoretical discussion on advanced liberal urban governance, focusing in particular on the contemporary discourse on sustainable urban development, we examine the interaction between political institutions, civil society and private actors in the construction of cohousing as a perceived novel and alternative form of housing that may contribute to fulfilling certain sustainability goals. Questions centre on the socio‐political contextualization of cohousing; concepts of sustainability; strategies of, and relations between, different actors in promoting cohousing; gentrification and segregation; and inclusion and exclusion. In conclusion we argue that, while self‐build groups can provide pockets of cohousing as an alternative to dominant forms of housing, the economic and political logics of advanced liberal urban development make even such a modest target difficult, particularly when it comes to making such housing affordable.     

Intra‐European labour migration and low‐wage competition—comparing the Danish and Swedish experiences across three sectors

The article compares how low‐wage competition and labour migration from EU11 Member States affect industrial relations and working conditions for natives and migrants in three sectors (transport, cleaning and agriculture) in Denmark and Sweden. The analysis shows how already vulnerable sectors with below‐average union density and collective agreements—especially geographical dispersed sectors—are strongly affected.     

Aktuelle Entwicklungen in der Beaufsichtigung und Rechnungslegung von Versicherungsunternehmen: IFRS und Solvency II

Accounting and supervision are closely related, especially via the determination of regulatory capital. As a precondition for the harmonisation of solvency rules within Europe, as discussed in the context of Solvency II, there is a need for harmonised accounting rules regarding the recognition and measurement of assets and liabilities. The International Financial Reporting Standards resp. International Accounting Standards (IFRS resp. IAS) are used as a starting point. Insurance contracts are accounted for under IFRS 4, published in March 2004, which is only established as an interim standard allowing insurance companies to continue their existing accounting policy without major changes in their accounting systems. The IASB has just begun working on a final standard (Phase II). The IASB’s work on the final standard should be taken into account for the determination of regulatory capital as well. The third pillar of Solvency II is an additional connection between international accounting standards and the Solvency II project: extensive disclosure requirements companies shall provide disciplinary transparency with regard to their risk management systems and risk profiles.