When do Heuristics Matter in Global Capital Markets? The Case of the BRIC Acronym

ABSTRACT

Several recent publications have argued that the use of heuristics by financial investors can distort global capital flows, but scholars have paid little attention to the scope conditions that determine when heuristics become influential (and when they don’t). Building on work in economic sociology and behavioural finance we suggest that the degree to which investment heuristics can bias aggregate capital flows depends on the levels of uncertainty and self-referentiality that structure the environments under which investment decisions are being made. Applying these insights to the two principal global markets for corporate investment, we argue that the institutional structure of markets for short-term portfolio equity investments (PEI) is far more conducive to trigger the mimetic adoption of a specific heuristic than in markets for long-term foreign direct investments (FDI). To test this hypothesis, we leverage the high level of arbitrariness of the selection of Brazil, Russia, India and China into the BRIC acronym and empirically examine the impact of its remarkable rise to prominence among communities of financial investors in the mid-2000s on global capital flows to emerging economies. In line with the theoretical argument, we find robust evidence of a strong BRIC-bias in markets for PEI but not FDI.     

Synergy Evaluation in Mergers and Acquisitions: An Attention-Based View

A core objective of corporate development relates to scope decisions, which regularly involve mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The dominant idea behind M&A is often captured by the umbrella term ‘synergy’. Yet, while performance is the key variable of most M&A studies, how firms arrive at a particular synergetic value for a target firm is not well understood. In this article, we contribute to this body of research. We argue that understanding the determination of synergies in M&A requires a look at the mechanisms that guide managerial attention towards specific valuation practices and synergy types. Specifically, by drawing on the attention-based view of the firm, we show that the evaluation of synergies cannot be divorced from the underlying attention structure in the M&A context and the various valuation practices that constitute different synergy types. Our analysis suggests that synergies often do not reflect the true potential of acquisitions. We reveal that this is due to an attentional crowding-out effect: The congruence of M&A attention structures with valuation practices for functional synergies crowd out the attention allocation to business models and strategic synergies. We describe the characteristics of this crowding-out effect as well as its implications.     

Markov perfect Nash equilibria in models with a single capital stock

Many economic problems can be formulated as dynamic games in which strategically interacting agents choose actions that determine the current and future levels of a single capital stock. We study necessary as well as sufficient conditions that allow us to characterise Markov perfect Nash equilibria for these games. These conditions can be translated into an auxiliary system of ordinary differential equations that helps us to explore stability, continuity and differentiability of these equilibria. The techniques are used to derive detailed properties of Markov perfect Nash equilibria for several games including voluntary investment in a public capital stock, the inter-temporal consumption of a reproductive asset and the pollution of a shallow lake.     

Customer Touchpoints im stationären Einzelhandel — Potenzial von Pervasive Computing

Je mehr individuelle Leistungen die Kunden verlangen, desto mehr Informationen ben?tigen die Anbieter. W?hrend die H?ndler im Distanzgesch?ft über personalisierte Daten ihrer Kunden und vor allem im Online-Shop über Bewegungsdaten verfügen, hat der station?re Einzelhandel noch erhebliche Datenlücken. Diese Lücken kann man mit einer Pervasive-Computing-Umgebung schlie?en. Neue Customer Touchpoints liefern Informationen darüber, wer bei ihm einkauft und wie der Einkauf durchgeführt wird.     

The internal impact of a customs union; Baden and the Zollverein

Tariffs can affect the growth of states. But how do they affect regional growth within states? Using Baden's 1836 entry into the Zollverein, the customs union of German states, I investigate the internal impact of a change in tariffs. With a new data set of regional employment data I demonstrate that the Zollverein had a substantial positive effect. Two market access effects are shown, one follows the standard market access predictions and the second triggers the direct investment by Swiss entrepreneurs in German regions close to their home base. Furthermore occupational change within the crafts sector was shifting labour towards higher taxed occupations and towards the region close to Switzerland.     

Accounting and the emergence of care pathways in the National Health Service

This paper examines the effects of New Public Management reforms on the information infrastructure underpinning the work of public service professionals. Focussing on the case of the British National Health Service (NHS), the paper argues that hospital accounting reforms played a significant role in the emergence of standardised models of clinical practice. The paper moreover argues that, under the label ‘care pathways’, such standardised models of clinical practice became embedded in the information infrastructure of the NHS and concludes by discussing their implications for the work of doctors and hospital accountants.     

Earning investor trust: The role of past earnings management

Does earnings management, even though legal, hinder investor trust in reported earnings? Or do investors regard earnings management as a way for firms to convey private information, or simply as a neutral feature of financial reporting? We find that past abstinence from earnings management increases investor responses to future earnings surprises. Importantly, this effect occurs in industries where investor trust has recently been violated, and where managers would in the past have had incentives and opportunities to misrepresent earnings. Overall, investors seem to interpret the extent to which management resists temptations for misreporting as a “litmus test” of trustworthiness.     

Connected and autonomous vehicle injury loss events: Potential risk and actuarial considerations for primary insurers

The introduction of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) to the road transport ecosystem will change the manner of collisions. CAVs are expected to optimize the safety of road users and the wider environment, while alleviating traffic congestion and maximizing occupant comfort. The net result is a reduction in the frequency of motor vehicle collisions, and a reduction in the number of injuries currently seen as “preventable.” A changing risk ecosystem will introduce new challenges and opportunities for primary insurers. Prior studies have highlighted the economic benefit provided by reductions in the frequency of hazardous events. This economic benefit, however, will be offset by the economic detriment incurred by emerging risks and the increased scrutiny placed on existing risks. We posit four plausible scenarios detailing how an introduction of these technologies could result in a larger relative rate of injury claims currently characterized as tail‐risk events. In such a scenario, the culmination of these losses will present as a second “hump” in actuarial loss models. We discuss how CAV risk factors and traffic dynamics may combine to make a second “hump” a plausible reality, and discuss a number of opportunities that may arise for primary insurers from a changing road environment.