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21.
We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generatingreliable short-term historical yield curve scenarios and confidenceintervals. The approach is based on a Functional Gradient Descent(FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and covariancematrix of a multivariate interest rate series. It is computationallyfeasible in large dimensions and it can account for nonlinearitiesin the dependence of interest rates at all available maturities.Based on FGD we apply filtered historical simulation to computereliable out-of-sample yield curve scenarios and confidenceintervals. We back-test our methodology on daily USD bond datafor forecasting horizons from 1 to 10 days. Based on severalstatistical performance measures we find significant evidenceof a higher predictive power of our method when compared toscenarios generating techniques based on (i) factor analysis,(ii) a multivariate CCC-GARCH model, or (iii) an exponentialsmoothing covariances estimator as in the RiskMetricsTM approach. 相似文献
22.
Francesco Grigoli Alexander Herman Klaus Schmidt‐Hebbel 《Review of Development Economics》2017,21(4):1255-1280
Private saving and economic growth are intimately linked, and low saving rates in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have often been held responsible for disappointing growth in the region. Thus, identifying factors that spur saving is critical. This paper surveys previous empirical studies on LAC, highlighting contradictions, omissions and in some cases inconclusiveness of findings. Relying on a large dataset and a nested econometric framework, it analyzes private saving patterns and explores the role of its determinants in LAC, across LAC sub‐regions and compared with other regions. While the results highlight great heterogeneity in private saving rates within LAC and compared with the rest of the world, saving determinants are broadly the same notwithstanding some differences in sensitivity and contributions' sizes, and include its lag, income, demographics and public saving. 相似文献
23.
David S.A. Guttormsen Anne Marie Francesco Malcolm K. Chapman 《Scandinavian Journal of Management》2018,34(2):117-128
This article advances the understanding of expatriate failure, which remains a contested social phenomenon in international work life as well as scholarly research. The study challenges the definition of expatriate failure and its inherent biases, i.e., the epistemological primacy of the firm level and the failure/success binary. We argue that this qualitative study of 51 Scandinavian expatriates in Hong Kong can contribute to advancing theory on the expatriate failure concept by asking individual expatriates what constitutes failure to them. By applying social constructionist and social anthropological ideas to the expatriate failure concept debate, we develop the internationality thesis which demonstrates a discrepancy between the expatriates’ perceptions of successful international assignments and the actual nature of their lived lives; many expatriates desire to enrich their lives through experiencing an international/intercultural and adventurous lifestyle, but, in fact, living lives with limited intercultural exposure and interaction. We conclude by proposing a reconceptualisation of expatriate failure in terms of offering both a new definition and approach to researching expatriate failure in which time/duration, context, and geographical location need to be taken into account. We believe the new approach can overcome some of the empirical unsoundness of mainstream definitions. 相似文献
24.
Pier Francesco Perri Beatriz Cobo Rodríguez María del Mar Rueda García 《Quality and Quantity》2018,52(4):1593-1611
In this article, we describe the methods employed and the results obtained from a mixed-mode “sensitive research” conducted in Spain to estimate certain aspects concerning patterns of cannabis consumption and sexual addiction among university students. Three different data-collection methods are considered and compared: direct questioning, randomized response technique and item sum technique. It is shown that posing direct questions to obtain sensitive data produces significantly lower estimates of the surveyed characteristics than do indirect questioning methods. From the analysis, it emerges that male students seem to be more affected by sex addiction than female students while for cannabis consumption there is no evidence of a predominant gender effect. 相似文献
25.
Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
26.
27.
“Set a Sufficiently Ambitious Budget Target and Let the Automatic Stabilizers Work”. Will it Really Work in the European Monetary Union? 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
We examine the popular recipe in the title by means of an AD-LM-AS two-country model of the EMU, controlling for asymmetry in demand and supply shocks and in the monetary-policy transmission mechanism. Unless structural symmetry holds and symmetric shock occurs, national automatic stabilizers, even though supplemented with the common monetary policy, cannot deliver optimal stabilization in each economy. Inflation and output gaps are not closed and may be divergent in sign. Considering that a federal system of inter-regional insurance is lacking, the recipe under examination is too optimistic, while serious threat to EMU cohesion may arise. The econometric estimates we present show that existing national fiscal systems work very poorly as for the minimization, after shocks, of the dispersion of national incomes around the EMU average. 相似文献
28.
Protecting Innovation Through Patents and Trade Secrets: Evidence for Firms with a Single Innovation
Dirk Crass Francisco Garcia Valero Francesco Pitton 《International Journal of the Economics of Business》2019,26(1):117-156
AbstractThis paper analyzes the use and effectiveness of patents and trade secrets designed to protect innovation. While previous studies have usually considered patents and trade secrets as substitutes for one another, we investigate to what extent and in what situations the two protection methods are used jointly. We identify protection strategies for single innovation firms and hence overcome the assignment problem of existing empirical studies, that is, whether firms using both protection methods do so for the same innovation or for different innovations. Employing firm panel data from Germany, we find fairly few differences between the determinants for choosing secrecy and patenting. Single innovators that combine both strategies, 39% of the group, tend to aim at a higher level of innovation and act in a more uncertain technological environment. Firms combining both protection methods yield significantly higher sales with new-to-market innovations, providing some evidence for a complementarity of the two protection methods. 相似文献
29.
We investigate the impact of product market competition on returns to skills in Italy using a longitudinal dataset on individual working histories. This impact is identified using three exogenous shocks affecting competition: the unforeseen devaluation of the Lira in 1992, its return to a fixed exchange regime in 1996 and the market liberalisation in the utility and transport sectors in the late 1990s–early 2000s. We analyse how firm heterogeneity and shocks of different types and signs affect the impact of competition on skill premia. We find that opposite shocks have opposite effects: an increase (resp. decrease) in international competition increases (resp. decreases) skill premia. Moreover, international shocks have greater effects on medium sized firms, while domestic liberalisation shocks have greater effects on large incumbents. 相似文献
30.
Giuseppe Criaco Philipp Sieger Karl Wennberg Francesco Chirico Tommaso Minola 《Small Business Economics》2017,49(4):841-864
We investigate how perceived parents’ performance in entrepreneurship (PPE) affects the entrepreneurial career intentions of offspring. We argue that while perceived PPE enhances offspring’s perceived entrepreneurial desirability and feasibility because of exposure mechanisms, it inhibits the translation of both desirability and feasibility perceptions into entrepreneurial career intentions due to upward social comparison mechanisms. Thus, perceived PPE acts as a double-edged sword for the intergenerational transmission of entrepreneurship. Our predictions are tested and confirmed on a sample of 21,895 individuals from 33 countries. This study advances the literature on intergenerational transmission of entrepreneurship by providing a foundation for understanding the social psychological conditions necessary for such transmission to occur. 相似文献