Strategic planning of complex economic systems ∗

A major drawback of conventional models of the behavior of economic systems (and derived tools for policy intervention) is that the desire for tractability leads generally to a high degree of abstraction from reality. This article suggests an alternative, and arguably complementary, approach which engages specifically with economic complexity. The technique used is one of interactive spatial modelling over long time periods where the principle economic agents base decisions on incomplete heuristic information. For illustrative purposes the model has been calibrated on the basis of Senegalese data for 1981–91 and broad generic equations presented. The article argues that such a methodological approach holds out considerable advantages for strategic planning of sustainable economic systems. In particular it permits the direct engagement of noneconomic disciplines and client stakeholders in the planning process.     

Deep habits and the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks

We introduce deep habits into a sticky-price sticky-wage economy and examine the resulting models ability to account for the impact of monetary policy shocks. The deep habits mechanism gives rise to countercyclical markup movements even when prices are flexible and interacts with nominal rigidities in interesting ways. Key parameters are estimated using a limited information approach. The deep habits model can account very precisely for the persistent impact of monetary policy shocks on aggregate consumption and for both the price puzzle and inflation persistence. A key insight is that the deep habits mechanism and nominal rigidities are complementary: the deep habits model can account for the dynamic effects of monetary policy shock at low to moderate levels of nominal rigidities. The results are shown to be stable over time and not caused by monetary policy changes.     

Does involvement matter in online shopping satisfaction and trust?

Consumer involvement in online shopping can play a moderating role when explaining Web site effect on satisfaction and trust. This study proposes a set of hypotheses based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion, a conceptual model that explains the formation of individual attitudes that are prompted by central and peripheral cues. The model proposes the use of central signals when the buyer is highly involved and peripheral signals when the buyer is less involved. Nevertheless, the results of this study would suggest that these relationships are not so clearly defined in the case of online buying, which implies that certain assumptions associated with the ELM need to be revised to take the particularities of the online context into account. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Outsourcing of advanced business services in the Spanish economy: Explanation and estimation of the regional effects

The use of advanced business services has become an essential element for competitiveness in modern economies in which traditional competitive advantages based on prices, lower labour costs or the abundance of natural resources are being replaced by new advantages based on higher quality, greater knowledge or the use of information and communication technologies (ICTs). Within this context certain services (computing, communications, human resources, engineering, consulting or management) are generally outsourced so as to exploit the advantages derived from specialisation and division of labour, as well as those of economies of scope and scale. However, some businesses, sectors or regions appear to have very different patterns of outsourcing advanced producer services. This paper presents an explanation of elements of business outsourcing decisions applied to the Spanish economy, applying discrete response models to the information obtained in a survey elaborated by the authors. The data thus obtained have enabled us to identify differences between the Spanish regions in the tendencies of businesses to use internal or external advanced services.     

Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare: Evidence from Brazil in 2008

Food price inflation in Brazil in the 12 months to June 2008 was 18%, whereas overall inflation was 7%. Using spatially disaggregated monthly data on consumer prices and two different household surveys, we estimate the welfare consequences of these food price increases, and their distribution across households. Because Brazil is a large food producer, with a predominantly wage‐earning agricultural labour force, our estimates include general equilibrium effects on market and transfer incomes, as well as the standard estimates of changes in consumer surplus. Although the expenditure (or consumer surplus) effects were large, negative and markedly regressive everywhere, estimates of the market‐income effect were positive and progressive, particularly in rural areas. Because of this effect on the rural poor, and of the partial protection afforded by increases in two large social assistance benefits, the overall impact of higher food prices in Brazil was U‐shaped, with middle‐income groups suffering larger proportional losses than the very poor. Nevertheless, as Brazil is 80% urban, higher food prices still led to a greater incidence and depth of poverty at the national level.     

An application of co-word analysis and bibliometric maps for detecting the most highlighting themes in the consumer behaviour research from a longitudinal perspective

This article presents an application of a bibliometric and visual study of the research carried out on a social science subfield, concretely the consumer behaviour research (CBR), from a longitudinal perspective (period 1966–2008). The study combines performance analysis and science mapping for detecting and visualizing conceptual subdomains. Quantitative and qualitative measures are used in order to identify the most prominent themes. Quantitative data are used to put together very related concepts (themes or clusters of topics), while qualitative indicators (as those based on citations) are used to measure the quality and/or impact of the detected themes. The study also uses bibliometric maps to show in a visual way the associations between the main concepts treated by the CBR community. The maps provide insight into the structure of the CBR, visualize the division of the field into several subfields, and indicate the relationships between these subfields. Co-word analysis is the bibliometric technique used to identify the main themes. All this allows us to quantify and visualize the thematic evolution of the CBR. It also helps to both experts and novices to understand the current state of the art of the CBR and to predict where future research could lead.     

A time series approach to g convergence

This paper applies time series analysis to study how the gap between a number of countries and the USA evolves through time. As other authors, it is found that time series analysis provides a better insight into the concept of convergence than the cross sectional one. The econometric results show that the stochastic behaviour of the output disparity varies considerably: neither the steady-state equilibrium nor the speed of convergence are unique and constant across countries and time. In general, there is catching up for European countries, convergence for East and South Asian countries, and neither of them for Latin American countries.     

Estimating cellphone providers' customer equity

This paper provides insights about how customer equity estimates can help businesses monitor the competition as well as aid managers in making their marketing investment decisions, and how companies can employ their marketing investments to maximize current and future yield/returns. The article concerns itself with the current offer of cellphone providers and their main products. The research includes survey data through interviews with 302 cellphone users of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The study uses this data combined with a number of economic assumptions and a financial marketing model to create an insight in customer equity values of cellphone providers in the region. The scenario dated October 2005 is that the estimated customer equity of the service provider Vivo is, respectively, 93 and 91% larger than those of competing providers Claro and TIM. The research underlines that on average the customer equity flowing from the post-paid segment is 3.5 times larger than that of the pre-paid. In addition to these results the study provides the customer lifetime value (CLV) estimates for Claro's, TIM's and Vivo's pre- and post-paid customers and analyzes the retention and loss figures of CLV. Also a discussion follows of the implications that these values will likely have for the companies' marketing strategy.     

Adjustment Problems in Developing Countries and the U.S.-Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement

Abstract

In this study, MERCOSUR's past exports to the EU under the protectionist environment of the period between 1988 and 1996 are examined and an attempt is made to determine MERCOSUR's exports' growth potential in a liberalized EU market. A sectoral study is considered indispensable since tariff and non-tariff trade barriers vary strongly among sectors. The influence of the macroeconomic environment on MERCOSUR's exports is examined in a dynamic panel analysis. A simulation study based on a quite comprehensive evaluation of EU trade barriers is performed for the Argentinean case to evaluate the impact of EU trade liberalization.