Entry and exit echoes

While aggregate data do not show the investment echoes predicted by vintage-capital models, echoes arise in rates of entry and exit of firms at the industry level. Moreover, industries where prices decline rapidly experience early ‘shakeouts’. The relation emerges naturally in a vintage-capital model in which exit of firms sometimes accompanies the replacement of their capital, and in which a shakeout is the first replacement ‘echo’ of the capital created when the industry is born.     

Passive partial ownership,sneaky takeovers,and merger control

We analyze the impact of passive partial ownership (PPO) on horizontal mergers. We show that antitrust authorities ignoring the effects of previous PPO acquisitions invite sneaky takeovers: a PPO is strategically used prior to a full takeover to get a merger approved which is in fact detrimental to consumers.     

THE 2012 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE: BUBBLES IN PRICES OF EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCES*

This article proposes a test for the presence of a bubble in the price of an exhaustible resource. A bubble is accompanied by a rise in the storage‐to‐consumption ratio: Consumption peters out, and a fraction of the original stock is held forever. The test suggests there is a bubble in the price of oil and in the market for high‐end Bordeaux wines, but other explanations are also possible. A bubble reduces welfare regardless of whether there are other stores of value, particularly fiat money.     

The Predictive Power of the French Market Volatility Index: A Multi Horizons Study

The main purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the time series properties of the French Market Volatility Index (VX1). We also examine the VX1's ability to forecast future realized market volatility and finds a strong relationship. More importantly, we show how the index can be used to generate volatility forecasts over different horizons and that these forecasts are reasonably accurate predictors of future realized volatility.     

Motives for fixed-asset revaluation: An empirical analysis with Swiss data

This paper investigates the economic motives of fixed-asset revaluations of Swiss listed companies. We provide international insights on revaluation motives, particularly in a stakeholders' regime, over a period which is characterized by significant changes of the accounting standards relative to fixed-assets valuation. We also test the impact of international stakeholders on the choice of whether to revalue assets. Results from pooled data show positive associations between revaluation and both the proportion of foreign sales and leverage, and a negative association with the investment opportunities. These findings suggest that revaluation is used as a device to improve creditors' and foreign stakeholders' perceptions of the financial health of the firm and thereby improve the firm's borrowing capacity. Cross-sectional results show that although leverage has declined over the periods investigated, interest rates have become lower for firms that revalue upward their fixed assets (compared to non-revaluers), emphasizing the debt-costs hypothesis.     

Package Graphic Design: Investigating the Variables that Moderate Consumer Response to Atypical Designs

Designers and marketing managers often agree that visual codes, in terms of product and package design, typify certain product categories. These “category‐based visual codes” refer to the formal and graphic characteristics most frequently seen in a given category, like specific shapes, colors, materials, typefaces, layouts, and illustrations. Given that the concept of “category‐based visual codes” seems to be connected with the concepts of “perceived typicality,” “cognitive categories,” “family resemblance,” and “design newness,” this research examines the impact of typicality/atypicality judgments regarding the visual appearance of a product on consumers' aesthetic appreciation and purchase intent. Several studies have sought to determine the relationships among design perceived typicality, aesthetic appreciation, and purchase intent. However, the literature indicates contradictory results. While some studies have shown a preference for the most typical design, others have demonstrated that consumers prefer moderately atypical design. This paper offers an explanation for this discrepancy by providing evidence that the relationships among design perceived typicality, aesthetic appreciation, and purchase intent are a case of moderated mediation. An empirical study using wine labels was conducted with 780 respondents. The results indicate that the relationships among perceived typicality, aesthetic appreciation, and purchase intent are linear and positive, although several individual variables have a moderating effect. Thus, it appears that certain consumer segments are more likely to appreciate atypical packages. Moreover, the level of perceived risk at the time of purchase also plays an essential role. Consumers are more apt to accept atypical packaging when the perceived risk is low. Several theoretical and managerial implications are drawn from these results.     

Wage differentials and state‐private sector employment choice in Yugoslavia*

In this study we use the newly available Yugoslavian Labor Force Survey data to investigate wage differentials and employment decisions in the state and private sectors in Yugoslavia. For the analysis we use three empirical models that rely on different statistical assumptions. We extend the standard switching regression model to allow non‐normality in the joint distribution of the error terms. After correcting for the sector selection bias and controlling for workers’ characteristics we find a private sector wage advantage. The wage premium is largest for workers with low education levels and declining for workers with higher educational levels. Given the regulatory and tax policies that pushed the private sector into the informal sphere of the economy during the period covered by our data, we argue that the state/private wage gap is likely to grow in the future. This will make it increasingly difficult for the state sector to attract and retain highly skilled employees.     

OPTIMAL MIGRATION: A WORLD PERSPECTIVE*

We ask what level of migration would maximize world welfare. Welfare is assumed to be a weighted average of the utilities of the world’s various citizens, but the weights are also country specific. Using a calibrated one‐sector model, we find that unless the weights are heavily biased toward the natives of rich countries, the extent of migration that would be optimal far exceeds the levels observed today. The claim remains true in a two‐sector extension of the model. All versions of the model assume that migration is the only redistributive tool.     

DETERMINANTS OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE IN BUSINESS START‐UPS: THE ROLE OF NONFINANCIAL STAKEHOLDER RELATIONSHIP COSTS

According to the finance literature, nonfinancial stakeholders (NFS), such as customers, suppliers, and employees, take into account their expected liquidation costs when dealing with a firm. In this framework, firms can influence their probability of liquidation by choosing an appropriate capital structure. Also, the literature suggests NFS bargaining power may affect firm financing decisions. In the current article we investigate these ideas for initial financing decisions by business start‐ups, where ex ante failure risk is high and NFS must decide whether to make relationship‐specific investments. We find that start‐ups imposing larger costs on their NFS following liquidation significantly reduce leverage. This effect is strengthened when suppliers have greater bargaining power. We also document a marginally negative effect of NFS liquidation costs on the proportion of bank loans. Finally, business start‐ups rely less on bank loans when customers and suppliers are in a powerful bargaining position.