The “news view” of economic fluctuations: Evidence from aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data

This paper uses aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data to explore the properties of the joint behavior of stock prices and total factor productivity (TFP) with the aim of highlighting data patterns that are useful for evaluating business cycle theories. The approach used follows that presented in [Beaudry, P., Portier, F., 2004. News, stock prices and economic fluctuations. Working paper 10548. NBER]. The main findings are that (i) in both Japan and the US, innovations in stock prices that are contemporaneously orthogonal to TFP precede most of the long-run movements in total factor productivity and (ii) such stock prices innovations do not affect US sectoral TFPs contemporaneously, but do precede TFP increases in those sectors that are driving US TFP growth, namely durable goods, and among them equipment sectors. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 635–652.     

Combining an inter-sectoral carbon tax with sectoral mitigation policies: Impacts on the French forest sector

As France works out its plan to tackle climate change issues, questions are arising in the forest sector as to how sectoral mitigation programs such as those designed to enhance fuelwood consumption or to stimulate in-forest carbon sequestration may coincide with an inter-sectoral program such as an economy-wide carbon tax. This paper provides insights into this question by exploring the impacts of (1) a combination of a carbon tax and a fuelwood policy, and (2) a combination of a carbon tax and a sequestration policy on (i) the economy of the forest sector, and (ii) the dynamics of the forest resource. To do this, we used a modified version of the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM) and carried out simulations on a 2020 time horizon. Basing our analysis on the fuelwood sector, we showed that wood producers always benefit from the combination of a carbon tax with either a fuelwood policy or a sequestration policy at the national level. Conversely, and although it favors wood products instead of non-wood substitutes, a carbon tax always decreases consumer surpluses by increasing wood product prices. As a consequence, the combination of a carbon tax with sectoral policies is likely to raise questions about the political economy of the mitigation program. This is particularly true in the case of a combination of a carbon tax with a sequestration policy, which already decreases consumer surpluses. We eventually showed that by increasing transport costs between domestic regions, the carbon tax reallocates production patterns over French territory which could lead to the necessity of a regional breakdown of policy-mixes in the forest sector.     

The Training of Jobseekers by Non‐profit Organizations: An Analysis Based on Data from the Upper Normandy Region of France

There is now an extensive academic literature on non‐profit organizations (NPOs). The hypothesis that these organizations are different from for‐profit organizations (FPOs) is one that is frequently adopted. Nevertheless, a number of recent studies have suggested that many factors may cause NPOs to lose their specificity. The aim of this paper is to assess the influence of these variables empirically with regard to the continuing training sector. Our results lead us to conclude that, while some of these variables do indeed have an impact on the behavior of NPOs, there is sufficient evidence to conclude that they do behave differently from FPOs.     

Estimating Armington elasticities for sawnwood and application to the French Forest Sector Model

Domestic and foreign forest products consumptions are considered imperfectly substitutable in the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM). This assumption is justified by product heterogeneities that depend on production places, by the consumers habits or by the market structure. It leads us to implement the international trade in the FFSM via the Armington's theory of the demand for products distinguished by place of production. In this paper we propose a calibration of Armington's elasticities of substitution between French and foreign forest products. System-GMM estimators are applied to identify robust parameters using a panel data from France customs service.     

Cross-listing and the long-term performance of ADRs: Revisiting European evidence

In this paper, we examine several cross-listing theories employing a sample of over 250 European ADRs representing 19 countries during the 1970–2002 period. We find that, first, though both Levels II and III listings underperform over the 3 years subsequent to the US listing, the determinants of long-term performance are significantly different for the non-IPO and IPO firms. Second, there is a strong support for investor recognition in the non-IPO sample, for window-of-opportunity in the IPO sample, and for bonding in both samples, but little support for the market segmentation hypothesis. Overall, our results support the notion that different cross-listing theories are complementary and not mutually exclusive, in explaining the long-term performance.     

Forecasting French and German long-term rates using a rational expectations model

Forecasting French and German Long-Term Rates Using a Rational Expectations Model. — In this paper, the authors study a forecasting model for long-term rates based on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure. The long-term rate is expressed as an average of expected short-term rates, which are modelled using three models: two univariate models (with stationary and nonstationary rates) and one model in which the short-term rate terminal boundary is specified as a function of agents’ expectations. These approaches are used to forecast French and German long-term rates from 1960 to 1996. The authors find that the model based on agents’ expectations gives the best forecasts, especially for short horizons.     

Viability of pay-as-you-go systems

When the dependency ratio inactive/active increases to intolerable proportions, the question arises as to how and when pay-as-you-go social security systems can be controlled so as to safeguard a decent way of life to everyone. Between uncertainty linked to wages and the interest rate, and room to manœuvre the age of retirement and the immediate transfer from workers to pensioners, not just any route permits this objective. The set of those which do is here delineated (the viability kernel tube), and the operations at any time necessary to control trajectories so as they remain in this set are identified (the regulation map). Finally, the flexibility necessary to avoid failure, from any state reached by the pay-as-you-go system, is inferred in timing and magnitude.     

When should firms invest in old capital?

The present paper analyzes optimal investment policies when the production function depends on capital of various vintages. In such an environment it is natural to ask whether the firm will invest in old-vintage capital at all. Other studies do not tell us when investment in old capital will take place. In the present paper I derive such a condition. Predictably, investment in old capital takes place if the elasticity of substitution between old and new capital is low, and when the depreciation of capital is high. However, other parameters such as the rates of technological progress and depreciation matter as well.     

Does sports activity improve health? Representative evidence using local density of sports facilities as an instrument

Using representative and geocoded data from the Swiss Household Panel and the Swiss Business Census, we estimate the effect of sports activity on health. OLS models show that sports activity significantly decreases overweight, sleeping problems, headaches, back problems, and perceived health impediments in everyday activities and significantly increases health satisfaction. Because sports activity is likely to be misreported and correlated with unobserved determinants of health, we use the number of sports facilities within 6 miles of the individual’s residence as an instrument for sports activity. Although the instrument is powerful in explaining sports activity, the second-stage effects on health are mostly statistically insignificant due to the high SEs of the IV estimates.