Optimal demand policies against stagflation

Zusammenfassung Optimale Nachfragepolitik zur Bek?mpfung der Stagflation. — Der Aufsatz besch?ftigt sich mit der Wahl einer optimalen Gesamtnachfrage-Politik als Antwort auf einen inflation?ren Schock — optimal in dem Sinne, da\ die Volkswirtschaft zur Vollbesch?ftigung und Preisstabilit?t auf einen Pfad zurückgeführt wird, der die sozialen Kosten minimiert. Es wird die Ansicht vertreten, da\ die Kosten eines gegebenen Stabilisierungspfades proportional sind zu den über die Zeit aufsummierten Abweichungen der Inflationsrate und der Arbeitslosenquote von den langfristigen Zielwerten. Auf der Grundlage einer sehr allgemeinen Formulierung der Phillips-Kurve wird die optimale wirtschaftspolitische Antwort auf einen Inflationsschock analysiert und gezeigt, da\ sie gew?hnliche ?Turnpike?-Eigenschaften besitzt. Dieser Ansatz wird veranschaulicht, indem er auf die USA für den Zeitraum 1971–1975 angewandt wird, wobei die Sensitivit?t des optimalen Pfades in bezug auf alternative Wohlfahrts-Bewertungen und Ansichten hinsichtlich der Natur des Trade-off untersucht wird.

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Résumé Les politiques de demande optimum contre la stagflation. — Cet article a pour sujet la selection d’une politique de demande agrégée optimum en réponse à un choc — optimum de manière qu’elle reconduit l’économie au plein emploi et à la stabilité de prix le long d’un sentier d’inflation-ch?mage minimisant des frais sociaux de ?welfare?. Nous arguons que les frais du chaque sentier donné de stabilisation peuvent être pris comme proportioneis à l’excès d’inflation et de ch?mage au-dessus du but à long terme, cumulé sur le sentier. En se fiant à une expression très générale de la ?courbe de Phillips? l’article analyse et démontre la réponse de politique optimum à un choc inflationniste pour exhiber des simples ?barrières? propriétés. L’approche est illustrée par l’application sur les E. U. pour la période de 1971 à 1975. Elle explore la sensibilité du sentier optimum aux évaluations alternatives de ?welfare? et aux vues de la nature du ?trade-off?.

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Resumen Políticas óptimas de demanda contra la estagflación. — Este artículo se ocupa de la selección de una política de demanda agregada óptima en respuesta a un ?shock? óptimo inflacionario en el sentido que devuelve el pleno empleo y la estabilidad de precios a la economía a través de una trayectoria de inflación-desempleo minimizando los costos sociales de bienestar. Se argumenta que el costo de cualquier trayectoria de estabilización dada puede tomarse como proporcional al exceso de inflación y desempleo por sobre la meta de largo plazo, acumulado a través de la trayectoria. Basándose sobre una formulación muy general de la ?curva de Phillips? se analiza la respuesta de política óptima a un ?shock? inflacionario y se muestra que exhibe propiedades simples de Camino de portazgo. El enfoque se ilustra aplicándolo a los EEUU para el período 1971–75, investigando la sensibilidad de la trayectoria óptima con respecto a evaluaciones de bienestar alternativas y apreciaciones sobre la naturaleza del ?trade-off?.

     

Exploring factors affecting international technological specialization: the role of knowledge flows and the structure of innovative activity

Journal of Evolutionary Economics - We define international technological specialisation (ITS) as the technological performance of a country in a specific technology relative to its overall...     

Scelta tra alternative incerte con informazioni parziali sulle funzioni di utilità

In questo lavoro si considera la classe dei decisori avversi al rischio e per questa classe viene proposto un metodo per verificare la dominanza stocastica tra due possibilità in alternativa quando la funzione d'utilità sia nota soltanto in un numero finito di punti.

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This paper deals with the set of adverse to risk decision-makers. For this set a method to check stochastic dominance is proposed. The method works when utility function value is known only on a finite set of points.

     

精益维修

企业管理要想达到世界级水平,必须实施精益维修。本文介绍了精益思想的原理,精益生产的组成,精益维修的目的、结构及其维修业绩评价系统。     

Macroeconomic shocks, structural change and real exchange rates: Evidence from historical data

We present empirical evidence on the forces driving real exchange rates in the long-run. Using data from the US, UK and Italy across different exchange rate regimes, we find support for the hypothesis that productivity and fiscal shocks matter. However, in some cases fiscal shocks cause depreciations, likely triggered by the monetary accommodation of fiscal shocks. We also find that the traditional Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect of productivity on real exchange rates is reversed in some cases, which confirms the importance of the distributive sector in driving productivity gains.     

Shareholder value efficiency in European banking

This paper advances the studies of [Hughes, J.P., Lang W.W., Mester L.J., Moon C.G., Pagano M.S., 2003. Do bankers sacrifice value to build empires? Managerial incentives, industry consolidation, and financial performance. Journal of Banking and Finance 27, 417–447] by developing a new measure of bank performance which we refer to as “shareholder value efficiency” – a bank producing the maximum possible Economic Value Added (EVA), given particular inputs and outputs, is defined as “shareholder value efficient”. This new efficiency measure is estimated using the stochastic frontier method focussing on the French, German, Italian and UK banking systems over the period 1997–2002 and includes both listed and non-listed banks. We find that European banks are, on average, 36% shareholder value inefficient. Shareholder value efficiency is found to be the most important factor explaining value creation in European banking, whereas cost and profit efficiency only have a marginal influence.     

Pre-entry experience,technological complementarities,and the survival of de-novo entrants. Evidence from the US telecommunications industry

We investigate the effect of pre-entry experience on firms’ performance in terms of survival. In particular we focus on entrants from a related upstream industry – semiconductors – into a downstream industry – telecommunications. We examine a sample of 336 de-novo start-ups in the US telecommunication industry and we estimate a discrete time hazard model of firm exit. Our findings show that, after controlling for both firms and founders’ characteristics, firms whose founders had prior experience in a related upstream industry such as semiconductors enjoy a relatively lower hazard of exit with respect to intra-industry spinoffs and other types of start-ups. Additionally, background heterogeneity of the founding team is an important determinant of survival for the firms in our sample. Our results point to the role of interdependences and technological complementarities between two vertically related industries in affecting the performance of new entrants.     

RESEARCH NETWORKS AS INFRASTRUCTURE FOR KNOWLEDGE DIFFUSION IN EUROPEAN REGIONS

This paper concentrates on the role of research network infrastructure in fostering the dissemination of innovation-related knowledge. It examines the structure of collaborative networks and of knowledge transfer between research, innovation and deployment activities in the field of information and communication technology for the European Union as a whole and for several European regions. Research networks complement diffusion networks by providing additional links and by increasing the number of the organisations involved in sharing and exchanging knowledge. Two types of actors are key players in these networks: hubs and gatekeepers. Hubs maintain the bulk of ties in the networks also helping the smaller and more isolated members remain connected. Gatekeepers bridge research and diffusion networks. Such organisations naturally offer greater policy leverage in establishing a European knowledge infrastructure. Moreover, strengthened inter-network connectivity among research and diffusion activities (deployment) would raise the effectiveness of European research in terms of accelerating innovation.     

Measuring China's innovative capacity: a stochastic frontier exercise

We adopt a stochastic frontier analysis of innovative activity to disentangle countries’ patenting capacity from patenting efficiency. We analyse the determinants of innovative capacity of a set of 26 OECD countries plus China, over the period 1992–2007, to show if and how China's technological activity is growing faster than commonly held as compared to the most innovative countries of the world. Our results highlight that both internal and external elements jointly contribute to enhance countries’ innovative capacity and efficiency. In particular, while government-funded R&D is more important for innovative capacity, privately funded R&D as well as foreign direct investments (FDIs) affects technical efficiency (TE). Moreover, as for the whole set of countries, FDIs seem to exert a resource-seeking role (as they negatively affect TE), this does not happen for China, where FDIs exert a positive effect. Results are robust to the use of alternative measures of innovative inputs (such as higher education expenditure in R&D and R&D personnel, but also FDI flows rather than stocks). Finally, human capital measures are generally not very effective in enhancing patenting efficiency, apart from tertiary education.