A behavioral cobweb-like commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators

According to empirical studies, speculators place significant orders in commodity markets and may cause bubbles and crashes. This paper develops a cobweb-like commodity market model that takes into account the behavior of technical and fundamental speculators. We show that interactions between consumers, producers and heterogeneous speculators may produce price dynamics which mimics the cyclical price motion of actual commodity markets, i.e., irregular switches between bullish and bearish price developments. Moreover, we find that the impact of speculators on price dynamics is non-trivial: depending on the market structure, speculative transactions may either be beneficial or harmful for market stability.     

Spillover Dynamics of Central Bank Interventions

Abstract. Central banks frequently intervene in foreign exchange markets to reduce volatility or to correct misalignments. Such operations may be successful if they drive away destabilizing speculators. However, the speculators do not simply vanish but may reappear on other foreign exchange markets. Using a model in which traders are able to switch between foreign exchange markets, we demonstrate that while a central bank indeed has several means at hand to stabilize a specific market, the variability of the other markets depends on how the interventions are implemented.     

Bank loan portfolios and the Canadian monetary transmission mechanism

Abstract .  Following a monetary tightening, bank loans to consumers decrease. This is true for both mortgage and non-mortgage loans, and it is true for a tightening by the Bank of Canada that is, and is not, a response to a tightening by the Federal Reserve System. In contrast, business loans increase following a monetary tightening. The 'perverse' response of business loans cannot be explained by an increase in the demand for funds due to a reduction in real activity. These results are consistent with a change in bank portfolio behaviour in favour of business loans in response to a monetary tightening.     

Takeovers and cooperatives: governance and stability in non-corporate firms

If consumers wholly or partially control a firm with market power they will charge less than the profit maximizing price. Starting at the usual monopoly price, a small price reduction will have a second order effect on profits but a first order effect on consumer surplus. Despite this desirable static result, it has been argued that cooperatives are vulnerable to take-over by outsiders who will run them as for-profit businesses. This paper studies takeovers of cooperatives. We argue that there will not be excessive takeovers of cooperatives due to the Grossman-Hart problem of free riding during takeovers.     

Natura naturans,natura naturata

In this paper, which is concerned with philosophical methodology as it might affect social science and ethics, the endeavor is to explore the depth and implications of Buchanan’s interest in Spinoza. After establishing their connection, the paper explores the parallels between Spinoza’s “dualism” and Buchanan’s own dualism and how that can shed light on Buchanan’s distinction between constitutional and operational modalities. Given their analogous perspectives, the paper then considers the possibility of dimensional shifts in the dualism, such that what was once a constitutional perspective becomes operational and how that ability to shift might affect various research agendas in the social sciences and ethics. Finally, we raise the question of how separate are the two levels and can they be brought together. In a Spinozistic framework, they ultimately would collapse into a monism, but the conclusion here is that for Buchanan there must always be a gap between them. As a result, the effort to resolve the tension between the dimensions may signal future research agendas in ethics and political economy.     

Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches

On the basis of historical data aggregated over the period 1973 to 2000, we have experimented with four different approaches to estimate the synthetic euro's equilibrium exchange rate. Using a number of competing models with the same data set, variable definitions and sample period offers the possibility to assess the uncertainty surrounding such equilibrium levels, both from an empirical (different estimates) and a theoretical viewpoint (different specifications). In this exercise, the 'Rest of the World' is proxied by the US, the UK, Japan and Switzerland, aggregated on the basis of trade weights.
We employed reduced form co–integration models, a structural VAR, a NATREX model (estimated in structural form) and the ECB's small–sized euro area wide macro–econometric model. In this order the approaches feature an increasing degree of 'structure', in the sense of the constraints based on economic theory embedded in the econometric models that were estimated. The results confirm the high likelihood for the euro having been undervalued in Q4 2000, while stressing the significant empirical and theoretical uncertainty with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate level.     

Choice, price competition and complexity in markets for health insurance

The United States and other nations rely on consumer choice and price competition between competing health plans to allocate resources in the health sector. While a great deal of research has examined the efficiency consequences of adverse selection in health insurance markets, less attention has been devoted to other aspects of consumer choice. The nation of Switzerland offers a unique opportunity to study price competition in health insurance markets. Switzerland regulates health insurance markets with the aim of minimizing adverse selection and encouraging strong price competition. We examine consumer responses to price differences in local markets and the degree of price variation in local markets. Using both survey data and observations on local markets we obtain evidence suggesting that as the number of choices offered to individuals grows, their willingness to switch plans given a set of price dispersion differences declines, which allows large price differences for relatively homogeneous products to persist. We consider explanations for this phenomenon from economics and psychology.     

Optimal dynamic scale and structure of a multi-pollution economy

We analyze the optimal dynamic scale and structure of a two-sector-economy, where each sector produces one consumption good and one specific pollutant. Both pollutants accumulate at different rates to stocks which damage the natural environment. This acts as a dynamic driving force for the economy. Our analysis shows that along the optimal time path (i) the time scale of economic dynamics is mainly determined by the lifetime of pollutants, their instantaneous harmfulness and the discount rate; (ii) economic scale and structure, as well as resulting welfare, may be non-monotonic, and (iii) environmental damage may exhibit an inverted U-shape form. These results raise important questions about the optimal design of environmental policies in a multi-pollution economy. We suggest a system of dynamic Pigouvian emission taxes, each of which should be levied specifically on one particular pollutant. We show that the optimal time path of each tax level is determined by the characteristics not only of that particular pollutant but also of all other pollutants.