Does Hindsight Bias Change Perceptions of Business Ethics?

Ethical decision theory may not be sufficiently well developed to furnish reliable guidelines to people involved in complex decision making that involves conflict between ethical considerations and business imperatives such as making a profit. In conditions of ethical uncertainty hindsight bias may occur, and this study reports on an exploration of hindsight bias effects among participants in continuing education in business programmes. Perceptions of business ethics were found to differ among groups within the sample depending on what they thought had been the outcome of the ethical decision concerned.     

Stock returns and volatility: Another look

Most empirical work examining the intertemporal mean-variance relationship in stock returns has tended to use relatively simple specifications of the mean and especially of the conditional variance. We augment the information set to include economic variables that other researchers have found to be important and use GARCH-M models to explore the relation between volatility and expected stock returns. We find that the additional variables have little impact on the conditional variance and that any intertemporal relationship between volatility and stock returns is weak or unstable. Our results signal the need for theoretical models of the intertemporal volatility-return relationship, and call for further studies of the determinants of the conditional variance of stock returns.     

Agricultural development with rainforest conservation: methods for seeking best bet alternatives to slash-and-burn,with applications to Brazil and Indonesia

Forests continue to fall for agricultural purposes throughout the humid tropics, with immediate and potentially large consequences for climate change and biodiversity loss-issues of key interest to the international community. Some of the actors directly responsible for forest conversion fell trees to meet food security needs and alleviate poverty-issues of urgent interest to them and also to national policymakers. This multiplicity of groups with differing (often conflicting) interests in the multifarious goods and services produced by tropical forests complicates the search for alternative agricultural activities for forest margins since these alternatives must satisfy such divergent objectives. This paper sets out a conceptual framework for comparing the impacts of different land use systems and agricultural practices at the margins of tropical rainforests in terms of the concerns and objectives of two key interest groups: small-scale farmers seeking livelihoods at the forest margins and the ‘international’ interests in the global public goods and services supplied by tropical rainforests. This framework should be useful to a third key group, the national and regional policymakers who must consider these and other policy objectives and then decide on courses of action. The paper identifies data needs and analytical methods capable of supplying an empirical base for this conceptual framework, based on quantifiable indicators. It then presents preliminary results of the application of this conceptual framework in Indonesia and Brazil in association with a global, collaborative, multidisciplinary research program. Even using preliminary order-of-magnitude estimates (to be replaced by more precise measurements as they become available), this conceptual framework presents results in ways that allow researchers and policymakers to select clear ‘best bets’ for development, when they exist, and to assess tradeoffs and options for complementary policy action and research efforts, when they do not.     

Exchange rate devaluation,monetary policy and wages: A general equilibrium analysis for Chile

A range of devaluation, monetary and wage policy mixes are analysed for the Chilean economy using a 10 sector comparative static model built along neoclassical lines. The model, while focusing on the real side of the economy, also contains a simple monetary sector. Quantifying the short-run implications of each policy mix for key macroeconomic and sectoral variables enables judgements to be made about the effectiveness of each mix in reaching specified targets and their feasibility. Money wage flexibility downwards is crucial if balance of trade and employment targets are to be achieved with lower domestic inflation and a smaller nominal devaluation.     

A three-sector model for real property tax incedence

This article presents a new three-sector general-equilibrium model for tax incidence analysis. The model differs from the usual two-sector model not only in the addition of an extra sector but also in abandoning the classical tradition of specifying with capital and labor arguments. The property tax in the model is specified as a partial tax applying to real — but not to personal — property used in the production of housing services and other goods.The model is quantified by selecting numerical values for its parameters in order to estimate percentage changes in the endogenous variables caused by the introduction of an exogenous property tax. The major effect of the tax is to make real property relatively more expensive and to cause less real property to be produced.