Election outcomes and financial market returns in Canada

This paper investigates the relationship between federal election outcomes and expected returns and volatilities in the Canadian money, bond, equity and currency markets from 1951 to 2006. There is little evidence that investment opportunities are different in minority versus majority parliaments and only money market returns differ in Conservative versus Liberal governments. The equity market performs better in the late part of the electoral cycle than in the first two years. Furthermore, the Canadian equity investment opportunities are better in Democratic versus Republican administrations and in the late versus early parts of the presidential electoral cycle. The Canadian dollar is also affected by American election outcomes. No apparent variation in risk or expected state of the economy accounts for the differences in returns.     

Intraday Lead-Lag Relationships Between the Futures-, Options and Stock Market

In rational, efficiently functioning and complete markets, returnson derivative and underlying securities should be perfectlycontemporaneously correlated. Due to market imperfections, oneof these markets may reflect information faster. The use ofhigh-frequency data and the choice for a small unit time intervalto measure these lead-lag relations comes at the cost of someor many missing observations, causing traditional estimatorsto either under- or overestimate covariances and correlations.We use a new estimator to estimate lead-lag relationships betweenthe cash AEX index, options and futures. We find that futuresreturns lead both options and cash index returns by approximately10 minutes. The relationship between options and the cash marketis not completely unidirectional. JEL Classification: G13, G14     

Does Hindsight Bias Change Perceptions of Business Ethics?

Ethical decision theory may not be sufficiently well developed to furnish reliable guidelines to people involved in complex decision making that involves conflict between ethical considerations and business imperatives such as making a profit. In conditions of ethical uncertainty hindsight bias may occur, and this study reports on an exploration of hindsight bias effects among participants in continuing education in business programmes. Perceptions of business ethics were found to differ among groups within the sample depending on what they thought had been the outcome of the ethical decision concerned.     

On the determinants of yield spreads between mortgage pass-through and Treasury securities

Yield spreads between mortgage pass-through and U.S. Treasury securities may reflect differences in taxation, phenomena affecting relative supply and demand, and compensation for default, call, and marketability risks on mortgage instruments. Our research empirically models differences in yields between pass-throughs and comparable-maturity Treasuries. We find that interest-rate volatility and the term structure of rates, factors often cited in the mortgage pricing literature as affecting the mortgage call premium, are the primary determinants of movements in these spreads. Moreover, these effects have grown in importance in recent years as exercise of the prepayment option has increased. We also find evidence that liquidity and credit concerns affect the pricing of pass-through securities.     

Consumer profiles section: Consumer profiles for conventional bed and waterbed owners in Canada

This study examines consumer profile data on waterbed and conventional bed consumers. Five hundred conventional and waterbed consumers in Canada were randomly selected from two national lists of waterbed/mattress purchasers from 1981 to the present. A 73-item questionnaire was sent by mail to all of the selected respondents. The cover letter stated the purpose of the project; to study why people bought the bed that they are presently using. One hundred and sixty-two completed, useable questionnaires were returned, yielding a response rate of 37%. Following a series of multivariate analyses, a consumer profile for the two bed users was developed. Both groups tended to be married. The conventional bed consumers had: (a) either no children or one child at home; (b) a mean age of 44; and, (c) an average income in the $30,000-$40,000 range. Waterbed consumers had: (a) a mean age of 36, (b) one child living at home; and, (c) an average income in the $20,000-$30,000 range. On the Adorno F scale, the conventional bed user was found to be more conservative and authoritarian as compared to the waterbed user. The results did not support the notion that waterbed users are abnormally sexually-oriented or “kinky”. For both groups, the price paid for the purchased bed fell in the $600 to $650 range. Implications for retailers were discussed.     

A Model of Outsourcing and Foreign Direct Investment

This paper presents a model in which two firms may use foreign direct investment or outsourcing in order to reduce the production cost of an intermediate input. Outsourcing requires training which is costly and creates a positive spillover. The paper shows that the equilibrium depends on the level of training costs. If they are high, only bilateral outsourcing is possible in equilibrium. If bilateral outsourcing is incomplete, it will not change prices compared to no outsourcing. If they are low, only complete outsourcing is possible. If complete outsourcing is unilateral (bilateral), the price increases (decreases) with the degree of spillovers.     

Gibbsian and non-Gibbsian states at Eurandom

We review some of the work on non-Gibbsian states of the last 10 years, emphasizing the developments in which Eurandom played a role.     

Bemerkungen über Nutzen und Kosten

Ohne ZusammenfassungAus dem Englischen übersetzt von Dr. Gertrud Lovasy, Wien