Global rebalancing: Effects on trade and employment

A sustained reduction of global current-account imbalances must include a decline in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand in the United States and the opposite development in China. Accordingly, import demand would decline in the United States and increase in China. Given non-homothetic demand preferences, the resulting change in the income distribution of global import demand affects both the intensity and pattern of other countries’ exports. Simulations suggest that, for the world economy, the net effect of this shift would be a decline in industrial exports, especially from labor-intensive sectors producing consumer durables. A multilaterally coordinated rebalancing that would also include an increase in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand of developed country surplus economies would reduce these adverse effects on trade and employment. Apart from the countries undertaking rebalancing, developing countries in East and South-East Asia face the greatest adjustment pressure from global rebalancing.     

Swedish technology teachers’ views on assessing student understandings of technological systems

Technology education is a new school subject in comparison with other subjects within the Swedish compulsory school system. Research in technology education shows that technology teachers lack experience of and support for assessment in comparison with the long-term experiences that other teachers use in their subjects. This becomes especially apparent when technology teachers assess students’ knowledge in and about technological systems. This study thematically analysed the assessment views of eleven technology teachers in a Swedish context. Through the use of in-depth semi-structured qualitative interviews, their elaborated thoughts on assessing knowledge about technological systems within the technology subject (for ages 13–16) were analysed. The aim was to describe the teachers’ assessment views in terms of types of knowledge, and essential knowledge in relation to a progression from basic to advanced understanding of technological systems. The results showed three main themes that the interviewed teachers said they consider when performing their assessment of technological systems; understanding (a) a system’s structure, (b) its relations outside the system boundary and (c) its historical context and technological change. Each theme included several underlying items that the teachers said they use in a progressive manner when they assess their students’ basic, intermediate and advanced level of understanding technological systems. In conclusion, the results suggest that the analysed themes can provide a basis for further discussion about defining a progression for assessing students’ understanding about technological systems. However, the findings also need to be examined critically as the interviewed teachers’ views on required assessment levels showed an imbalance; few students were said to reach beyond the basic level, but at the same time most assessment items lay on the intermediate and advanced levels.     

Market Response to Investor Sentiment

This paper reconsiders the effect of investor sentiment on stock prices. Our main contribution is that, in addition to the intermediate term return predictability, we also analyze the immediate price reaction to the publication of survey‐based investor sentiment indicators. We find that the sign of the immediate market response is the same as that of the predictability at intermediate time horizons. This is consistent with underreaction to cash flow news or with investor sentiment being related to mispricing. It is inconsistent with the alternative explanations of a rational response to cash flow news or sentiment indicators providing information about future expected returns.     

Trade liberalisation and inequalities in Nepal: A CGE analysis

In this paper we examine the effects of trade liberalisation on inequality in the small developing country of Nepal. We use a Computable General Equilibrium approach applied to a newly developed social accounting matrix, simulating three liberalisation scenarios: (i) import liberalisation; (ii) export liberalisation; and (iii) import and export liberalisations implemented together under different exchange rate regimes. Outcomes reveal that industry reallocation following liberalisation does not respond to classical trade theory expectations about factor intensity and abundance. On the distributive side, liberalisation seems to increase the high-skilled/low-skilled gap and favour rich households relatively more. However, since under fixed exchange rate also the two poorest household groups increase their income levels, liberalisation may also expected to be beneficial for poverty alleviation.     

Energy balance climate models and general equilibrium optimal mitigation policies

In a general equilibrium model of the world economy, we develop a two-dimensional energy balance climate model featuring heat diffusion and anthropogenic forcing driven by global fossil fuel use across the sphere of the Earth. This introduces an endogenous location dependent temperature function, driving spatial characteristics, in terms of location dependent damages resulting from local temperature anomalies into the standard climate-economy framework. We solve the social planner's problem and characterize the competitive equilibrium for two polar cases differentiated by the degree of market integration. We define optimal taxes on fossil fuel use and how they may implement the planning solution. Our results suggest that if the implementation of international transfers across latitudes is not possible then optimal taxes are in general spatially non-homogeneous and may be lower at poorer latitudes. The degree of spatial differentiation of optimal taxes depends on heat transportation. By employing the properties of the spatial model, we show by numerical simulations how the impact of thermal transport across latitudes on welfare can be studied.