The impact of coding time on the estimation of school effects

Multilevel growth curve models are becoming invaluable in educational research because they model changes in student outcomes efficiently. The coding of the time variable in these models plays a crucial role as illustrated in this study for the case of a three-level quadratic growth curve model. This paper shows clearly how the choice of a time coding affects school effects estimates and their interpretation. A new definition for school effects for growth curve models with random intercepts and slopes is proposed. This study recommends that the choice of a time coding should not only be based on the ease of interpretation and model convergence but also on its consequences on the student status and growth parameter estimates. The current application illustrates that in general the school effects for student growth in well-being and language achievement in secondary school, are greater for student growth than for student status.     

Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model

We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models in order to include macroeconomic factors. Our work benefits from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature related to the extraction of the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and the estimation of the parameters in the model. We include these factors in a dynamic factor model for the yield curve, in which we model the salient structure of the yield curve by imposing smoothness restrictions on the yield factor loadings via cubic spline functions. We carry out a likelihood-based analysis in which we jointly consider a factor model for the yield curve, a factor model for the macroeconomic series, and their dynamic interactions with the latent dynamic factors. We illustrate the methodology by forecasting the U.S. term structure of interest rates. For this empirical study, we use a monthly time series panel of unsmoothed Fama–Bliss zero yields for treasuries of different maturities between 1970 and 2009, which we combine with a macro panel of 110 series over the same sample period. We show that the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and the yield curve data has an intuitive interpretation, and that there is interdependence between the yield and macroeconomic factors. Finally, we perform an extensive out-of-sample forecasting study. Our main conclusion is that macroeconomic variables can lead to more accurate yield curve forecasts.     

The relative income hypothesis

Despite its theoretical dominance, the empirical case in favor of the permanent income hypothesis is weak. Contrary to one of its basic implications, a growing body of evidence suggests that rich households save a higher proportion of their permanent income than poor households. We propose an overlapping-generations economy where households care about relative consumption. As a result, an individual's consumption is driven by the comparison of his lifetime income and the lifetime income of his reference group; a permanent income version of Duesenberry's (1949) relative income hypothesis. Across households the savings rate increases with income while aggregate savings are independent of the income distribution.     

A change management perspective on public sector cutback management: towards a framework for analysis

The financial crisis forces public managers to implement cutbacks within their organization. We argue that adopting a change management perspective contributes to our understanding of cutback management by adding a focus on managerial behaviour regarding cutback-related organizational changes. Relying on change management literature, this paper develops a framework for the analysis of cutback management connecting the context, content, process, outcomes and leadership of cutback-related change. From this it follows that managers can be positioned at the intersection of various imperatives, both externally and internally, such as their political leaders and their own subordinates. A research agenda is proposed.     

Six sporting worlds. A cluster analysis of sports participation in the EU-25

The aim of this study was to identify clusters of European nations grouped by sports participation outcomes (organizational context and intensity of sports participation), in order to provide sensible groupings for international comparisons. Sports participation data for the EU-25 were distracted from the 2004 Eurobarometer survey. Both a hierarchical as a K-means clustering method was used to identify groupings of countries that are homogeneous in terms of sports participation profiles. Six clusters of countries could be identified: (i) non to average fitness countries; (ii) active club countries; (iii) average non-organized countries; (iv) average school countries; (v) active multi-context countries; and (vi) very active countries. Considerable differences in sports participation profiles between European countries are made clearer when viewed across clusters of countries grouped by actual outcomes. This empirically derived taxonomy has advantages over ad hoc systems for comparing sports participation and for deciding which countries appear to have the most comparable participation profiles. Moreover, it shows that policy strategies to increase sports participation in European countries need a differentiated approach and have to take account for the fact that the provision and intensity of sport is at a quite different level in all six sporting clusters.     

The Non-Trivial Choice between Innovation Indicators

We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of five alternative innovation indicators: R&D, patent applications, total innovation expenditure and shares in sales taken by imitative and by innovative products as they were measured in the 1992 Community Innovation Survey (CIS) in the Netherlands. We conclude that the two most commonly used indicators (R&D and patent applications) have more (and more severe) weaknesses than is often assumed. Moreover, our factor analysis suggests that there is little correlation between the various indicators. This underlines the empirical relevance of various sources of bias of innovation indicators as discussed in this paper.     

Determinants of private health insurance coverage among Mexican American men 2010–2013

Abstract

Background: Private health insurance (PHI) represents the largest source of insurance for Americans. Hispanic Americans have one of the lowest rates of PHI coverage. The largest group in the US Hispanic population are Mexican Americans; they account for about two in every three Hispanics. One in every three Mexican Americans aged 64 years and under did not have health insurance coverage. Mexican Americans have the most unfavorable health insurance coverage of any population group in the nation.

Objectives: The objective is to determine the factors associated with the gap in PHI coverage between Mexican American and non-Hispanic American men.

Methods: This study used the National Health Interview Surveys (2010–2013) as the sample. A non-linear Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition was run, estimating the explained and unexplained gap in PHI coverage between the groups. Several robustness tests of the model were also included.

Results: This study estimates that 44.4% of employed Mexican American men are covered by PHI compared to 79.5% of non-Hispanic American men. Nearly 60% of employed Mexican American men were found to be foreign born, 35% have an educational attainment less than a high school degree, and 40% are likely to have language barriers. Decomposition results show that income, low educational attainment, being foreign-born, and language barriers diminished the probability of private health insurance coverage for Mexican Americans, and that 10% of the gap is unexplained.

Conclusions: Most of the difference in the PHI rate between Mexican American men and non-Hispanic men is explained by observable differences in group characteristics: education, language, and immigration status. About 10% of the difference can be attributed to discrimination under the traditional interpretation of an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. The PHI rate gap is large and persistent for Mexican American men.     

On the Differential Effects of European Patents

Since the invention of the European Patent System, national patent systems have continued to co-exist, although they did lose appeal. How have the different national systems been affected in view of their characteristics? In order to answer this question a constant-market-share (CMS) analysis is carried out. While on a theoretical level, the different elements adding to the appeal of each patent system are discussed, the CMS-analysis reveals the importance of country size in that the national systems of smaller countries lose.     

Economic importance and statistical significance: Guidelines for communicating empirical research

Abstract

A critical objective for many empirical studies is a thorough evaluation of both substantive importance and statistical significance. Feminist economists have critiqued neoclassical economics studies for an excessive focus on statistical machinery at the expense of substantive issues. Drawing from the ongoing debate about the rhetoric of economic inquiry and significance tests, this paper examines approaches for presenting empirical results effectively to ensure that the analysis is accurate, meaningful, and relevant for the conceptual and empirical context. To that end, it demonstrates several measurement issues that affect the interpretation of economic significance and are commonly overlooked in empirical studies. This paper provides guidelines for clearly communicating two distinct aspects of “significance” in empirical research, using prose, tables, and charts based on OLS, logit, and probit regression results. These guidelines are illustrated with samples of ineffective writing annotated to show weaknesses, followed by concrete examples and explanations of improved presentation.     

The Impact of Collaborative Agreement on Firms' Performances: The Case of the IT Industry in the 1990s1

In the information technology (IT) industry, which confronted a major transition phase during the 1990s, partnerships became a strategic component of the new ‘divided technical leadership’ that emerged from the industry's vertical disintegration. This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of 1676 partnerships on the financial performance (revenue and profit) of 14 large firms and 725 of their partners. On average, there is a positive impact of collaborative agreements on large incumbents and their partners' financial performance. These results vary according to the type, form and content of the agreement and according to the partner's field of activity. Incumbents get the most benefit from broad informal alliances while smaller and more hierarchical forms of partnerships (consortia, joint-ventures) do profit to their partners. For large incumbents, partnerships are more effective with partners from the services industry than with partners from the IT industry.