Management earnings forecasts and other forward-looking statements

We identify forward-looking statements (FLS) in firms’ disclosures to distinguish between “forecast-like” (quantitative statements about earnings) and “other”, or non-forecast-like, FLS.  We show that, like earnings forecasts, other FLS generate significant investor and analyst responses. Unlike earnings forecasts, other FLS are issued more frequently when uncertainty is higher. We then show that earnings-related FLS are more sensitive to uncertainty than quantitative statements, suggesting that managers are more likely to alter the content than the form of FLS when uncertainty is higher.  Our study indicates that incorporating other FLS into empirical measures provides a more comprehensive proxy for firms’ voluntary disclosures.     

Contextual Innovation Management Using a Stage‐Gate Platform: The Case of Philips Shaving and Beauty

To improve its innovation process, Philips Shaving and Beauty (S&B) designed a blueprint for its innovation process. Although it has proved to be quite effective, it has experienced a lack of efficiency, in terms of frequent cost and time overruns, in the fuzzy front end of this process. We suggest a contextual innovation management approach to set up a stage‐gate‐based innovation process platform and thus improve the efficiency in the fuzzy front end, which means that, for different contexts, stage‐gate process variants will be designed from which unnecessary activities are removed and important activities are emphasized. The design is based on the identification of relevant contextual factors to develop variations of the common innovation process within Philips S&B. We distinguished different variants of the innovation processes within Philips S&B that can increase the efficiency in the fuzzy front end. Based on interviews within and outside Philips S&B, we identified problems and potential solutions with regard to efficiency in eight recently finished innovation processes. The results indicate that the most important contextual factors are the distinction between incremental and radical innovations, and between market and technology‐based innovations. We used these factors to design three variants on the basic platform of the stage‐gate process.     

POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extending the enterprise evolution contextualisation model

Enterprise engineering (EE) emerged as a new discipline to encourage comprehensive and consistent enterprise design. Since EE is multidisciplinary, various researchers study enterprises from different perspectives, which resulted in a plethora of applicable literature and terminology, but without shared meaning. Previous research specifically focused on the fragmentation of knowledge for designing and aligning the information and communication technology (ICT) subsystem of the enterprise in order to support the business organisation subsystem of the enterprise. As a solution for this fragmented landscape, a business-IT alignment model (BIAM) was developed inductively from existing business-IT alignment approaches. Since most of the existing alignment frameworks addressed the alignment between the ICT subsystem and the business organisation subsystem, BIAM also focused on the alignment between these two subsystems. Yet, the emerging EE discipline intends to address a broader scope of design, evident in the existing approaches that incorporate a broader scope of design/alignment/governance. A need was identified to address the knowledge fragmentation of the EE knowledge base by adapting BIAM to an enterprise evolution contextualisation model (EECM), to contextualise a broader set of approaches, as identified by Lapalme. The main contribution of this article is the incremental development and evaluation of EECM. We also present guiding indicators/prerequisites for applying EECM as a contextualisation tool.     

Seemingly inconsistent analyst revisions

In about 20%–30% of cases where an analyst revises two outputs (namely, earnings estimates, target prices, or stock recommendations) simultaneously, the two estimates are revised in opposite directions. Existing literature notes that these inconsistent outputs are widespread, and concludes that they are lower-quality, driven by strategic bias, and are viewed as less valid by investors. We find that these characterizations are generally inaccurate. Apparent inconsistency is largely driven by accounting and economic factors, with only limited evidence that investment banking-related conflicts play a role. Moreover, inconsistent outputs are neither less accurate than consistent outputs nor do they resolve less investor uncertainty upon their release. Overall, our results suggest that researchers should be cautious in interpreting the correlation between analyst outputs as a measure of bias or quality, and in using a single analyst output as a proxy for an analyst's overall views.     

The behavioural intentions of specialty coffee consumers in South Africa

More than 1.6 billion cups of coffee are consumed worldwide on a daily basis. South Africa is rapidly adapting to worldwide trends with speciality coffee consumption on the rise, with South Africa recently having been recognised as a key player in the speciality coffee industry. Emerging market trends in speciality coffee consumption have resulted in a number of changes in consumption patterns, preferences and consumer behaviour. The purpose of this study was to determine the behavioural intention of speciality coffee consumers in South Africa, using the Theory of Planned Behaviour. The data were gathered from a non‐probability sample of 327 respondents, who were selected through a self‐completion online questionnaire. The results indicate that males consume more speciality coffee than females. The majority of respondents consume speciality coffee more than once a day, and foam cappuccinos are consumed most regularly. The results of the stepwise multiple regression analysis demonstrate the utility of the Theory of Planned Behaviour as a conceptual framework for predicting the behavioural intention of speciality coffee consumers. The findings indicate that attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control are important predictors of behavioural intention. Furthermore, perceived behavioural control is the most important factor influencing speciality coffee consumption, and the most influential of the direct measures of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. With the current rise in speciality coffee consumption among South Africans, the Theory of Planned Behaviour framework contributes to understanding those factors which influence regular speciality coffee consumption. It is recommended that marketers and practitioners adapt their offerings to appeal to the specific needs of the growing speciality coffee market in South Africa.     

Geographic distribution of suicide and railway suicide in Belgium, 2008–2013: a principal component analysis

This study investigated the geographic distribution of suicide and railway suicide in Belgium over 2008--2013 on local (i.e., district or arrondissement) level. There were differences in the regional distribution of suicide and railway suicides in Belgium over the study period. Principal component analysis identified three groups of correlations among population variables and socio-economic indicators, such as population density, unemployment, and age group distribution, on two components that helped explaining the variance of railway suicide at a local (arrondissement) level. This information is of particular importance to prevent suicides in high-risk areas on the Belgian railway network.