The future revisited: Looking back at The next 25 years by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR)

Looking back at futures studies in the past (past futures) is perhaps the second nature of futures researchers. In this article we look back at a study that was conducted by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy in 1977. We considered it interesting to assess its value 25 years later since many changes have taken place in technology, society, economy, and in the science of futures research as well. From our analysis we have drawn the following conclusions: (1) instead of giving every topic the same time horizon more diverse time horizons should be included because of the different dynamics, (2) more attention for people and opinions outside the mainstream discourse, (3) more attention for thinking in multiple futures instead of predicting just one future outcome, (4) do not only look at the (possible) future of a specific topic, but assess if this topic in its whole will be relevant in the future important (meta-forecast), and (5) more attention for integrating topics for futures studies, but not fulfilling the impossible ambition to link everything to everything.     

The Relationship between Changes in Fixed Plant Investment and the Likelihood of Emergence from Corporate Financial Distress

Companies experiencing financial distress can attempt to mitigate financial distress through changing the investment in the fixed asset base. Management may choose to expand the asset base in hopes of increasing sales. Alternatively, management may choose to contract the asset base in order to eliminate and/or reduce investment in unprofitable or risky ventures, improve liquidity, reduce earnings volatility, and reduce the need for operating capital.In this study, we examined how observed changes in the investment base affect the likelihood of emergence from a financially distressed condition. We find that, when management chooses to contract the investment in property, plant, and equipment, the likelihood of emergence from financial distress is significantly improved. On the other hand, when management chooses to expand property, plant, and equipment in the face of distress, the distress is only intensified. Our explanation is that companies that choose to contract their fixed asset base in times of trouble are taking steps that will most likely improve their financial condition—they are less likely to need working capital, and can better tolerate increased levels of long-term debt. Conversely, increasing the fixed asset base amplifies the need for working capital, and borrowing money to facilitate the expansion simply increases the necessary uses of that working capital because the debt must be serviced. As a result, companies descend even deeper into financial distress and decrease the likelihood that they will emerge therefrom.     

Trade classification algorithms for electronic communications network trades

Ellis et al. [Ellis, K., Michaely, R., O’Hara, M., 2000. The accuracy of trade classification rules: Evidence from Nasdaq. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 35 (4), 529–551] find that trade classification rules have limited success in classifying trades which execute inside the quotes. We reconfirm this result and propose an alternative algorithm to improve the classification accuracy for trades inside the quotes. This alternative algorithm improves the overall success rate for classifying trades, especially for trades that occur inside the quotes. Additionally, we show that the Lee and Ready [Lee, C., Ready, M., 1991. Inferring trade direction from intraday data. Journal of Finance 46, 733–747] and Ellis et al. (2000) trade classification algorithms provide biased estimates of the actual effective spreads and price impacts, while our algorithm provides statistically unbiased estimates of actual effective spreads and price impacts.     

Modelling trends in food market integration: Method and an application to Tanzanian maize markets

Pushed by increasing availability of price data and extensive market liberalisation efforts in many developing countries, research on food market integration has evolved rapidly over the last two decades. Empirical methods to measure market integration diverged in two directions: on the one hand, there is the parity bounds model (PBM) using a switching regressions technique, while on the other hand the use of threshold autoregressive (TAR) models has been proposed. This article provides a discussion on the two methods and argues that TAR models are better able to capture the dynamics of the arbitrage process underlying interconnected markets. Furthermore, we extend the standard TAR model to include a time trend in both the threshold and the adjustment parameter. Using weekly maize price data on seven selected markets in Tanzania, we illustrate how both transaction cost and the speed of adjustment have changed during the nineties.     

Pursuing shareholder value: The rhetoric of James Hardie

In this paper we analyse the media release by James Hardie Industries Limited (JHIL) announcing the establishment of a separate entity to fund current and future asbestos litigation claims using the interpretive tool of rhetorical criticism. At the centre of the corporate reorganisation which alienated asbestos-related liabilities from the corporate group was the concept of shareholder value. This concept was presented as an unequivocal rationale to persuade the public that the reorganisation would resolve the asbestos liability issue and benefit both shareholders and legitimate asbestos claimants alike. Accounting is implicated by the use of accounting concepts such as assets and liabilities to persuade stakeholders of the financial viability of the new entity. These concepts were presented as objective and unproblematic without consideration of the nuances of accounting measurement, recognition and disclosure criteria.

Using an organisational discourse analysis framework, the media release is ‘dismantled’ to expose the rhetorical strategies used to create particular understandings and to privilege certain interests. The analysis demonstrates the power of a single textual artefact to harness and influence strategic possibilities and serve an organisational strategy.     

Winning probabilities in a pairwise lottery system with three alternatives

Summary. The pairwise lottery system is a multiple round voting procedure which chooses by lot a winner from a pair of alternatives to advance to the next round where in each round the odds of selection are based on each alternatives majority rule votes. We develop a framework for determining the asymptotic relative likelihood of the lottery selecting in the final round the Borda winner, Condorcet winner, and Condorcet loser for the three alternative case. We also show the procedure is equivalent to a Borda lottery when only a single round of voting is conducted. Finally, we present an alternative voting rule which yields the same winning probabilities as the pairwise lottery in the limiting case as the number of rounds of the pairwise lottery becomes large.Received: 5 June 2003, Revised: 17 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D71. Correspondence to: Jac C. HeckelmanWe thank Keith Dougherty and Andrew Yates for their comments.     

An unobserved component model of asset pricing across financial markets

Our research focuses on multifactor asset pricing models that investigate the importance of economic factors in the pricing of assets beyond the scope of the stock market. We present a Bayesian learning model of asset pricing across financial markets in which unobserved components are estimated using a Kalman filter (KF). Economic factors serve to drive the pricing of risk in the market, and agents update expectations recursively, as new information becomes available. We generally find that the Kalman filter provides superior performance and that economic factors like industrial production and unanticipated inflation provide consistent implications across financial markets.     

On the marketing of IPOs

Derrien [2005. Journal of Finance 60, 487–521] and Ljungqvist et al. [2006. Journal of Business] build upon the work of Miller [1977. Journal of Finance 32, 1151–1168] and claim that issuers and the regular customers of investment bankers benefit from the presence of sentiment investors (noise traders) in the market for an initial public offering (IPO). Thus we argue that investment bankers have an incentive to promote an IPO to induce sentiment investors into the market for it. Consistent with this motivation and these models, we expect that the promotional efforts of investment bankers should influence the compensation of investment bankers, the valuation of an IPO, its initial returns and trading, the wealth gains of insider shareholders, and the likelihood that an issuer switches investment bankers for a subsequent seasoned equity offering. Examining data for a sample of IPOs from 1993 through 2000, we find evidence consistent with these predictions and so with the proposition that an investment banker's ability to market an IPO to sentiment investors is important.