Persistence in Portuguese mutual fund performance

Recent evidence suggests that future performance is predictable from past performance, that is, funds with superior (inferior) performance in the past are likely to remain good (bad) performers in the future. This research addresses the persistence of mutual fund performance in a European regional market (the Portuguese equity fund market). Some of the problems in evaluating fund persistence are identified in the context of limited sample size and using the peer group median as a benchmark for contingency table analysis of performance persistence. The criteria for assessing performance persistence based on the contingency table methodology of repeated winners and losers are presented in terms of significance statistics, adjusted for small sample bias. The adjustments are accomplished through the Yates continuity correction and Fisher's exact p-value. The appropriateness of each criteria under different circumstances is also discussed. The analysis of the returns of all Portuguese domestic equity funds, since a representative number was established, shows some performance persistence (on a quarterly basis). The persistence, however, is reduced when the returns are controlled for the various dimensions of risk. Significant risk persistence has been documented. Furthermore, for more or less frequent intervals of measurement, the industry persistence is rejected, although individual funds exhibit superior/inferior performance.     

Evaluating the economy embedded in the Brazilian ethanol–gasoline flex-fuel car: a Real Options approach

The introduction of the flex-fuel cars in the Brazilian market in 2003 changed considerably the consumer decision-making process. Prior to this date, it was necessary to choose the automobile type only by gasoline or by ethanol fuel; today it is possible to choose a car type with both fuel options. This flexibility generates economic advantages for his owner, but what are the financial benefits of a flex-fuel car in comparison with a car using only gasoline? Geographically, where is the owner of the benefits from this flexibility located? This article presents an empirical application of the Real Options Theory in the analysis of the flex-fuel car option for five geographic Brazilian regions: Northern, Northeastern, Central-Western, Southeastern and Southern. The regional price differences as well as the consumer preferences of these regions were met. For this purpose, historical fuel prices were considered stochastic and following a Mean Reverting Stochastic process. The prediction and option values were generated by a Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the option embedded on the Brazilian flex-fuel car adds considerable value to the owner in all regions and car models considered, with the Southeastern Region receiving most benefits by the flex option.     

Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone: an SVAR analysis

We compute the value of fiscal multipliers (for government primary expenditure, Income and wealth taxes and for Production and import taxes) in the Eurozone countries since the creation of the currency union (2000Q1-2016Q4), in order to understand how the values can vary according to the public debt level, the pace of economic growth, and the output gap. Imposing quarterly fiscal shocks, the results showed that government expenditure had a positive effect on output, with an annual accumulated multiplier of 0.44, whereas tax multipliers presented negative signs: the Income and wealth and the Production and import taxes stood at ?0.11 and ?0.55, respectively. Furthermore, the spending multiplier showed a higher value for countries with lower levels of public debt, during recessions, and in countries with negative output gaps. On the other hand, tax shocks seemed to be recessive in highly indebted countries and those facing positive output gaps.     

The diffusion of exporting in Brazilian industrial clusters

The present research aimed at understanding the process by which firms in a cluster start to export based on systemic interactions, and the process of diffusion of exporting as a business strategy within the cluster. Diffusion was defined, following Rogers’ (1995: 5) seminal work, as ‘the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system’. The research method used was industry case studies and the unit of analysis selected was the cluster. Two manufacturing industries were chosen to be investigated, and within each geographic area clusters were identified as the origin of dynamic export growth in the industry. Players in each industrial cluster, as well as other significant actors, were interviewed. Extensive secondary data research was done to study clusters’ historical development. Detailed analysis and a comparison of the experiences permitted the extraction of some general conclusions concerning the similarities and differences between the clusters in terms of the adoption and diffusion of exporting. Results showed that the diffusion of exporting in an industrial cluster is quite similar to the dissemination of technical innovation. Social ties were important to facilitate the diffusion of exporting in one of the clusters studied. Also, the role of domestically-owned flagship firms in leading the internationalization process proved to be important in only one of the clusters, while the role of external actors was fully supported in the two industries studied. Finally, a number of support institutions, private and public, interfered in different stages of the internationalization process. In both industries, the federal government had only a late and limited impact on export initiation and development.     

A Model of Collaborative Entrepreneurship for a More Humanistic Management

Inter-organizational models are both a well-documented phenomena and a well-established domain in management and business ethics. Those models rest on collaborative capabilities. However, mainstream theories and practices aimed at developing these capabilities are based on a narrow set of assumptions and ethical principles about human nature and relationships, which constrain the very development of capabilities sought by them. This article presents an Aristotelic–Thomistic approach to collaborative entrepreneurship within and across communities of firms operating in complementary markets. Adopting a scholarship of integration approach and evaluating the six studies of communities of organizations, we contribute an inter-organizational network model based on the assumptions about human motives and choice offered by Aristotle. We argue that the sustainability of inter-organizational communities depends on how rich is the set of assumptions about human nature upon which they are based. In order to develop and sustain collaborative capabilities in inter-organizational communities, a set of assumptions that takes both self-regarding and others’-regarding preferences as ends is required to avoid any kind of instrumentalization of collaboration, which is an end in itself. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Productivity,real exchange rate,and aggregate demand: An empirical exercise applied to Brazil from 1960 to 2011

This research analyzes, from a post Kaleckian perspective, the interactions among the aggregate demand, the real exchange rate, productivity, and real wages in the Brazilian economy from 1960 to 2011. It adopts the longstanding perspective that demand is the driver of capital accumulation and economic growth. The research comprises the following steps: (a) a critical assessment of the growth regime literature, with a particular emphasis on issues related to productivity and the real exchange rate; (b) understanding the relationship between the real exchange rate and the productivity and growth regimes; (c) proposing a theoretical model that relates the real exchange rate, productivity, and the growth regime; and (d) an empirical test of the interaction between the real exchange rate, productivity, and the growth regime. Theoretically the study develops a model showing the interactions between the aggregate demand, the real exchange rate, productivity, and real wages. Furthermore, this research attempts to address the lack of theoretical and empirical studies about the relationship between the aggregate demand, the real exchange rate, productivity and real wages.     

Procurement as innovation policy and its distinguishing effects on innovative efforts of the Brazilian oil and gas suppliers

This paper aims to assess the effect of public procurement for innovation (PPI) in the Brazilian oil and gas sector on the innovative behavior of suppliers. It emphasizes the role PPI may play in developing countries due to its ability to target a wide range of firm sizes and to contribute to a more even diffusion of technical progress. Using microdata from RAIS and coarsened exact matching, results show that treated firms present on average a higher intensity of innovative efforts than the control sample. In small firms, PPI has a positive effect on the probability of carrying out innovative activities. Once small firms have decided to carry out these activities, treated and control samples have similar innovative effort intensities. The treatment’s effect on large firms’ probability of performing innovative activities is positive but lower than small firms. Nonetheless, there is a significant and positive effect on the intensity of these efforts. The paper suggests that, due to its effects over a wide range of firm sizes, PPI may be a worthwhile policy to implement for the reduction of structural heterogeneity present in developing countries.     

The long-horizon returns behaviour of the Portuguese stock market1

In the last few years several research studies have challenged the traditional weak-form efficiency tests of the stock market. These studies suggested an alternative to the random walk model, containing temporary and permanent components. If stocks follow such a model then the traditional tests, using returns computed for short intervals would be unable to detect them. To investigate the evidence for such models in the Portuguese stock market ten stock indexes were created. This is a pioneer study of the Portuguese stock market, and uses nominal, real and excess returns, computed for longer horizons. Three methodologies were used: variance ratios, ordinary least squares regressions and weighted least squares regressions. The statistical significance of the results was studied using traditional parametric tests as well as non-parametric tests. The evidence is mixed, as the presence of tendencies towards mean aversion and mean reversion were detected. Results also show that the evidence is very sensitive to the methodology used and the signifcance tests performed. These results, however, do not necessarily reject the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis.     

Consequences of Economic Partnership Agreements between East and Southern African Countries and the EU for Inter- and Intra-regional Integration

Abstract

The European Union is currently negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with six African, Caribbean and Pacific country groupings, aiming at establishing mutual free trade. This paper empirically assesses the impact of the EPAs on trade flows and government revenues for 22 East and Southern African countries and discusses implications for intra-regional integration. The results indicate that while moderate trade effects can be expected, relatively large budget effects are likely to occur in a number of these countries, exposing them to considerable structural and financial adjustment requirements. In addition, EPAs would strengthen the need to consolidate overlapping intra-regional integration schemes.