Credibility,currency convertibility and the stabilisation of the rouble

The measures taken so far to move towards currency convertibility and combat inflation in Russia and the other CIS countries are based largely on a three-stage programme formulated by the IMF. The following article presents alternatives and compares them with the IMF concept from the point of view of credibility.     

Fitting parametric lorenz curves to grouped income distributions — A critical note

Empirical Economics - The paper surveys various parametric Lorenz curves to be fitted to grouped income data in order to obtain an estimate for the Gini measure of inequality. The curves are fitted...     

Model-independent bounds for option prices—a mass transport approach

In this paper we investigate model-independent bounds for exotic options written on a risky asset using infinite-dimensional linear programming methods. Based on arguments from the theory of Monge–Kantorovich mass transport, we establish a dual version of the problem that has a natural financial interpretation in terms of semi-static hedging. In particular we prove that there is no duality gap.     

Strategisches Asset-Liability Management in der Versicherungswirtschaft — Ein Ansatz zur integrierten Bilanzstrukturoptimierung

Asset-Liability Management has gained increased significance within the German insurance industry. This was mainly driven by recent capital market developments. In fact, insurers have encountered challenges to earn given interest guarantees. Regulatory changes also require more sophisticated ALM-tools. Solvency II will change the underlying paradigm and shift balance sheets perception towards a market value oriented view. Especially liabilities will have to be accounted for using the fair value approach. Most ALM-tools appear to be unable to cope with these demands. To improve this current practice, in this paper a Markowitz-approach is employed in order to generate an integrated method for the optimization of assets and liabilities in the life insurance industry. This technique aims to link new regulatory requirements to the latest capital market theory and therefore delivers a procedure for an integrated asset allocation policy in the insurance industry.     

Hedge-Fonds als Asset-Klasse: Betrachtungen aus der Perspektive der deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft

The over performance of hedge funds until the current financial market turbulences led to a large number of insurers increasing their hedge funds quota. In the following this asset class is examined and particularly analyzed with respect to its adequacy for an insurance company's asset allocation by focusing on the axiom of safety, as demanded by national law. The problem of survivorship-bias and the Markowitz requirements of normal-distribution and constant correlations among the asset classes and their impact on a strategic asset allocation are studied.     

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Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Modelling the Eurozone as an Extraordinary Exchange Rate Union

The Trans-European Automated Real-Time Gross settlement Express Transfer system (TARGET) imbalances within the Eurozone can be interpreted as a sign of a missing balance of payments adjustment mechanism for the member countries. As the Eurozone lacks a fiscal union, in theory it is more of an exchange rate union or a system of fixed exchange rates than a monetary union. This paper will show why the TARGET is a crucial indicator for the Eurozone not being a monetary union but instead an exchange rate union, and why countries holding TARGET liabilities against the European System of Central Banks can be compared to a reserve currency country, like the US under the Bretton-Woods System.     

Measuring the size of the shadow economy in 30 provinces of China over 1995–2016: The MIMIC approach

Applying the multiple indicators and multiple causes (MIMIC) approach, the present paper measured the size of the shadow economies in China's provinces over 1995–2016. The results show that the average size of the shadow economy in 30 provinces of China increased from 13.55% in 1995 to 14.39% in 2009, and then decreased to 12.30% in 2016. There are obvious variations in the size of the shadow economies in different districts of China. The average size of the shadow economy is lowest in provinces in the eastern district and highest in the western district. In addition, the causes and consequences of the shadow economies in China's provinces have also been analysed using the MIMIC approach, and the results show that tax burden, complexity of the tax system, intensity of regulation, unemployment, employment in the agricultural sector and economic openness have significant positive effects on China's shadow economy, while the ratio of direct taxes to indirect taxes, fiscal autonomy and income levels have significant negative effects on China's shadow economy. Using the growth rate of energy consumption as the benchmark indicator, the MIMIC analysis shows that the shadow economy has significant positive effects on the development of the official economy and income inequality while having a significant negative effect on the labour participation rate.