The management of R & D technological progress as an object for applied systems analysis

Mankind's prospects both for finding new types of resources and for ensuring efficiency in resource utilization and substitution depend upon our success or failure in solving the problems of organizing and managing technological systems. A generalized scheme describing interaction among the basic elements of the management of national science and technology (ST) activity is outlined, and one particular element isolated for detailed examination: the system analysis and systematic assessment of new technology (SANT). The role of SANT in the context of decision-making in the management of ST progress is described, together with the methodological arsenal available. No one technique is universally good; the problem is to find systematic means of using a selection of methods which mutually compensate for each other's weaknesses. Further difficulties are encountered over the non-comparability or absence of initial data, and a framework for viewing the various classes of data available and making use of them is outlined. Examples are given of the practical application of SANT to problems such as the development of a macro-model., for the planning of national ST policy, and a model of technological change in the area of the science, technology, and exploitation of computers. A system is described which handles the data stores and information flows necessary for performing SANT routines.     

Multimarket trading and liquidity: a transaction data analysis of Canada–US interlistings

We use transaction data for Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) listed stocks to examine the impact on trading costs of the decision to interlist on a US exchange. We measure trading costs using both ‘posted’ bid-ask spreads and ‘effective’ bid-ask spreads that measure actual transaction prices relative to standing bid-ask quotes. After controlling for price level, trade size and trading volume effects, we find that overall posted and effective spreads in the domestic (TSE) market decrease subsequent to the interlisting. However, the decrease in trading costs is concentrated in those TSE stocks that experience a significant shift of total trading volume (TSE and US) to the US exchange after listing. We interpret this result in the context of theories of multimarket trading as a competitive response by TSE market makers to the additional presence of US market makers.     

Designing and managing employer-sponsored long-term care plans

Due to prevalent demographic factors, long-term care is an issue of increasing concern to American workers. The cost and time involved in ever-expanding long-term care responsibilities for many employees has resulted in increased indirect employer costs. The authors argue that providing' long-term care as part of the employee benefit plan is an efficient and effective way to manage these increasing costs for both the employer and the employee. The article offers discussion of plan design for long-term care, including issues to be considered and strategy for plan management.     

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: a (new) policy framework for the agricultural sector

In the southern African Region (SAR) large populations, mainly concentrated in rural areas, face food insecurity and poverty. Food insecurity is intensified by adverse weather conditions and droughts which impact negatively on farm level food production throughout the region. Agriculture constitutes an important economic sector in the majority of countries in the region. This is measured as share of agricultural value added to the GDP and as agriculture's share in employment. Based on these facts alone, it must be obvious that sustained agricultural performance will play a significant role in the improvement of food security and livelihoods in the region. However, food security is not only attained in rural areas and by the consumption of home produced food stuffs. Urbanisation is expected to increase dramatically over the next few decades and feeding the urban masses, at affordable prices, must be considered to be a high future priority for governments in the region. Food security must not be viewed as an agricultural issue per se. The drive to food self sufficiency through domestic agriculture production in many countries in the region did not enable these countries to feed their own population. Food security should rather be defined as the acquirement of sufficient and nutritious quantities of food (Sen, 1981, Poverty and Famines: An essay on Entitlement and Deprivation). An approach, whereby attention is given to the macro level availability of food, access to income streams as well as improved production capacity to acquire food at a household level and the utilisation of nutritious food, should therefore be guiding food security policies (SADC: FSTAU, 1997, A Strategic Framework for Food Security in the Region). This broader view emphasises household level poverty reduction, economic development and growth as important components of a food security strategy (World Food Summit, Rome, 1996). An important issue which therefore needs to be explored is whether agriculture does have the potential to contribute to economic processes, which will support broad based development and food security. This paper is intended to argue the importance of agricultural development for food security in the region and to develop a diverse policy framework to strengthen this new, more comprehensive role of agriculture in the region.     

An empirical comparison of bankruptcy models

Four types of bankruptcy prediction models based on financial statement ratios, cash flows, stock returns, and return standard deviations are compared. Based on a sample of bankruptcies from 1980 to 1991, results indicate that no existing model of bankruptcy adequately captures the data. During the last fiscal year preceding bankruptcy, none of the individual models may be excluded without a loss in explanatory power. If considered in isolation, the cash flow model discriminates most consistently two to three years before bankruptcy. By comparison, the ratio model is the best single model during the year immediately preceding bankruptcy. Quasi-jack-knifing procedures suggest that none of the models can reliably predict bankruptcy more than two years in advance.