A brief study of age specific birth proportions,Japan and Singapore

The suitability of age-specific birth proportions (ASBP), or percentage distribution of births, as a rough and ready index of fertility change was analyzed by establishing a theoretical framework for its limitations and uses. The discussion suggested that the utility of ASBP as an indicator of fertility change depends on the characteristics and behavior of the population being considered. The concept was then empirically applied to birth trends in Japan and Singapore for 2 different time periods. Analysis suggested that ASBP trends in Japan reflected changes in age-specific fertility rates relative to general fertility rate as well as trends in parity distribution. The Singapore analysis was more complicated, raising different issues. As very limited empirical work has been done on ASBPs, the utility of ASBPs as an indicator of fertility change cannot be definitely ascertained. It was suggested however that ASBP trends may be applicable in countries where the age distribution of fertile-aged women is fairly stable. More empirical research should be done on ASBP trends in other countries, the behavior of A matrix as discussed in this paper, and useful empirical relationship of ASBP with other fertility measures.     

The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa: short- and long-term projections

"This paper describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in recently revised World Bank population projections....The paper first reviews different approaches for projecting AIDS and its demographic consequences. This is followed by a summary of an epidemiological model that simulates the spread of HIV used in this analysis, and a demographic model that translates mortality from AIDS into population outcomes. These models are then used in a set of simulations, from which the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality is extracted. Finally, the extracted equations linking current HIV prevalence with future mortality indicators are applied to sub-Saharan countries with a measurable level of current HIV prevalence."     

Do norms of decision-making styles,organizational design and management affect performance of Japanese firms? an exploratory study of medium and large firms

The success and resilience of Japanese firms have led many scholars and practitioners to theorize and speculate about the impact of what they have termed the 'Japanese management style' upon performance. There have been few studies that have attempted to explore empirically the links between the way Japanese firms organize, manage and decide, and their performance. This paper investigates the association between norms of decision-making style, organizational design and management, and some measures of firm performance. The empirical pattern of norms was assessed on the basis of responses of a random sample (N = 349) of Japanese managers. The study demonstrates that while there appears to be no support for the proposition that certain norms universally affect performance, in some sectors the impacts of norms on decision-making style, organizational design and management may be significant. The study concludes with the implications for theory building of this empirical exploration.     

Common factors can always be found but can they also be rejected?

Factor models are often used to reduce the complexity of data. It is simple to find common factors and to interpret them. However, it is doubtful whether factor models are always appropriate. Especially when the common factor is considered to be an attitude, it must be stable through time and explain a considerable part of the variances. A procedure is suggested to test the usefulness of a common factor. In an experimental pilot study in which an attitude towards immigrant workers was investigated, the instability and superfluousness of a common factor is shown. An alternative model is presented which suggests that changing opinions can be explained by specific variables. Finally it is shown that a more stable common factor is found if a so-called MIMIC-design is used.     

Public Schools and In-migration in North Carolina Counties, 1975–80

Abstract . The migration model presented in this paper indicates (hat the academic quality of public schools, independent of their racial composition, is an important determinant of in-migration in North Carolina counties. The failure to control for school quality is shown to lead to a significant overestimate of the negative impact of school racial mix. These results accord with the Tiebout Hypothesis and with a growing body of other research which suggests that the distributions of public services and other amenities are the principal determinants of recent migration patterns in the U.S.     

Political Profit: Taxing and Spending in the Hierarchical State

A bstract . The actions of government fall into two types: taxes (the taking of property ) and expenditures (the awarding of gifts ). Politicians profit as long as the value of resources raised from taxation exceeds the cost of expenditures. From their point of view, fiscal efficiency consists in maximizing the support obtained by spending and minimizing the opposition generated by taxing. This is accomplished by spending on well-organized groups and taxing the uninformed public. This results in the "iron law of political redistribution" in which income and wealth are transferred from the latter to the former. In a hierarchical State , it is usually profitable for those at the top to centralize control over taxing and spending, if for no other reason than to make it difficult for politicians at lower levels to compete against them. This gives rise to the "law of hierarchical centralization "—in a hierarchical State, power becomes centralized over time. The greater the power of government, the faster this process takes place. In order to avoid this problem, one could design constitutions which are non-hierarchical in nature, in which each unit of government is completely autonomous from the others, as firms are in a free market.