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We show that if policymakers compute the optimal unconstrained interest-rate rule within a Taylor-type class, they may be led to rules that generate indeterminacy and/or instability under learning. This problem is compounded by uncertainty about structural parameters since an optimal rule that is determinate and stable under learning for one calibration may be indeterminate or unstable under learning under a different calibration. We advocate a procedure in which policymakers restrict attention to rules constrained to lie in the determinate learnable region for all plausible calibrations, and that minimize the expected loss, computed using structural parameter priors, subject to this constraint. 相似文献
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GEORGE OWUSU 《International journal of urban and regional research》2008,32(2):453-472
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The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
When coupled with a stock's current price, a readily available piece of information—the 52‐week high price–explains a large portion of the profits from momentum investing. Nearness to the 52‐week high dominates and improves upon the forecasting power of past returns (both individual and industry returns) for future returns. Future returns forecast using the 52‐week high do not reverse in the long run. These results indicate that short‐term momentum and long‐term reversals are largely separate phenomena, which presents a challenge to current theory that models these aspects of security returns as integrated components of the market's response to news. 相似文献
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Economic activities of families have important influences on processes of family development and family change over time. Knowledge of these special relations has expanded in recent years, as has the literature on the economics of family life as a general field. As a result, scholars and professionals in consumer studies and home economics need conceptual frameworks that organize areas of specific findings and identify specific issues for research. A conceptual framework which identifies four economic activities performed by families and six fundamental family development and family change processes is proposed. Then, a matrix of testable hypotheses is formulated, emphasizing economic activities as independent variables in family development and change. The matrix portrays the central roles economic influences play in contemporary family life, and suggests a complete, holistic understanding of these influences. The matrix also provides a conceptual guide to the design of empirical research and synthesis of findings on the economics–family development interface. 相似文献
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TAMI GURLEY‐CALVEZ GEORGE W. HAMMOND RANDALL A. CHILDS 《Contemporary economic policy》2014,32(4):681-694
This paper examines the impact of smoking regulations on restaurant employment in West Virginia, a state with a high rate of smoking prevalence. Using a confidential establishment‐level dataset, our results suggest that smoking bans reduced restaurant employment by between 0.7 and 1.5 workers, depending on model specification. We find that smoking restrictions have heterogeneous impacts across establishments, with the largest impacts on mid‐sized establishments, defined as those with 10–29 employees. Our results also suggest that the impact of smoking restrictions was larger in counties with higher rates of smoking prevalence. (JEL L51, D78, H0) 相似文献
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GEORGE
ADU GEORGE
MARBUAH 《The South African journal of economics. Suid-afrikaanse tydskrif vir ekonomie》2011,79(3):251-269
This paper provides an empirical analysis of the factors accounting for inflation dynamics in Ghana using the bounds test and other econometric approaches. We find that real output, nominal exchange rate, broad money supply, nominal interest rate and fiscal deficit play a dominant role in the inflationary process in Ghana. To the extent that output growth by far has the strongest impact on inflation, targeting supply‐side constraints will help moderate price inflation. The paper concludes that inflation in Ghana is explained by a combination of structural and monetary factors consistent with prior studies. 相似文献