ARE SOME BANKS TOO LARGE TO FAIL? MYTH AND REALITY

At the time of the Continental Illinois National Bank insolvency, bank regulators considered some commercial banks "too large to fail" (TLTF) and were reluctant both to legally fail such banks and to impose pro rata losses on any of the uninsured creditors of these insolvent banks and their parent holding companies. This policy was introduced due to widespread fears that large bank failures would set off a domino effect bringing down other banks and possibly even the macroeconomy as it did during the 1930s. Also, because these banks are considered special in that they provide money and credit to their communities, many feared that their failure could reduce greatly the availability of these services.
This paper analyzes the validity of these fears by examining both theory and the historical record. It concludes that neither theory nor history provides strong support for either fear. In addition, the paper finds that the costs of regulatory forbearance granted to insolvent banks and their creditors greatly exceed the alleged benefits. It also reviews how policy makers apply the TLTF principle in practice. The paper concludes that the policy has been modified progressively over time so that some large banks now are declared legally insolvent and all creditors of bank holding companies—and some uninsured creditors of the banks themselves—incur losses. One may reasonably expect that TLTF will be modified further as the large societal costs become more evident to the public and regulators alike.     

How Friedman and Schwartz Became Monetarists

During the early‐1940s, both Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz downplayed the role of money in the economy. By the mid‐1950s, they had not only become what later were called monetarists, but the findings from their joint work defined monetarism. The key factor underlying the change in their views was what they learned from their study of U.S. historical experience, especially their empirical confirmation of the Fed's role in the Great Depression. Here, the influence of Clark Warburton on Friedman's thinking loomed large. We document Friedman's advocacy of the constant‐money‐growth rule as an outgrowth of his and Schwartz's empirical research.     

Interest‐Rate Pegs in New Keynesian Models

The conventional policy perspective is that lowering the interest rate increases output and inflation in the short run, while maintaining inflation at a higher level requires a higher interest rate in the long run. In contrast, it has been argued that a Neo‐Fisherian policy of setting an interest‐rate peg at a fixed higher level will increase the inflation rate. We show that adaptive learning argues against the Neo‐Fisherian approach. Pegging the interest rate at a higher level will induce instability and most likely lead to falling inflation and output over time. Eventually, this would precipitate a change of policy.     

COMPENSATORY RESTORATION IN A RANDOM UTILITY MODEL OF RECREATION DEMAND

Natural Resource Damage Assessment cases often call for compensation in non‐monetary or restoration equivalent terms. In this article, we present an approach that uses a conventional economic model, a travel cost random utility model of site choice, to determine compensatory restoration equivalents for hypothetical beach closures on the Gulf Coast of Texas. Our focus is on closures of beaches on the Padre Island National Seashore and compensation for day‐trip users. We identify restoration projects that compensate for beach closures and that have good alignment in terms of compensating those who actually suffer from the closures. (JEL Q26)     

Using the Life Course Paradigm to Explain Mechanisms That Link Family Disruptions to Compulsive Buying

This research examines compulsive buying as an impulse‐control disorder, a form of maladaptive behavior believed to have its roots in early‐in‐life experiences of family adversities. Unlike previous research that has typically studied only the effects of family divorce on compulsive buying, this study examines the effects of disruptive family events within the broader multitheoretical life course framework. A sample of 327 young adults is used to test the hypothesized relationships derived from the main life course perspectives. The results show alternate paths leading to compulsive buying, beyond those uncovered in previous studies. By offering a broader overarching framework, the article shows how previous efforts to study compulsive buying can be improved, pointing to the value of the multitheoretical life course approach in understanding consumption phenomena .     

Consequences and Institutional Determinants of Unregulated Corporate Financial Statements: Evidence from Embedded Value Reporting

I analyze Embedded Value (EV) reporting by firms with life insurance operations to assess the impact of unregulated financial reporting on transparency and to examine the institutional characteristics that promote unregulated reporting. Under EV accounting, the present value of future cash flows from in‐force contracts is included in shareholders’ equity, and profit is calculated as the change in equity between two periods. In contrast to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), this approach produces higher shareholder's equity and recognizes income at contract inception. I find firms that adopt EV reporting exhibit a decline in information asymmetry, with the decline increasing as EV reporting evolves to address methodological deficiencies and to permit more comparability across firms. The decrease in information asymmetry is contingent on providing an audit certification, and larger for firms that commit to providing EV reports. Moreover, I document that EV reporting is more widespread in countries with more hostile takeovers, managers that do not avoid volatile income measures, regulators that are less likely to intervene in the product market, and analysts that believe EV disclosure increases the value of their information intermediation function.