Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations

This article explores the time-varying causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for the top 10 tourist destinations in the world, namely China, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Spain, Turkey, the UK and the United States of America, over the period 1990–2015. To that end, a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality approach based on the modified Granger causality test is used. A new index for tourism activity which combines via principal component analysis the commonly used tourism indicators is also employed. The results of the bootstrap rolling window causality tests reveal that the causal relations between tourism and economic growth vary substantially over time and across countries in terms of both magnitude and direction. It is shown that the causal linkages tend to be more pronounced for a large group of countries following the global financial crisis of 2008. Additionally, Germany, France and China clearly stand out as the countries with the weakest causal nexus, while the UK, Italy and Mexico emerge as the countries that have the strongest causal links. These results have particularly important implications for policymakers.     

Industry-level determinants of the linkage between credit and stock markets

This paper examines the relationship between US credit default swaps (CDS) and stock returns on an industry-wide basis across a number of investment horizons, with particular focus on the major determinants of such a relationship. Wavelet analysis is first applied to extract the CDS–stock wavelet correlation for each US industry. Then, Bayesian Model Averaging is employed to identify the key driving factors of the industry CDS–stock wavelet correlations at short- and long-term horizons. The empirical results indicate that the wavelet correlations between the industry CDS and stock returns are primarily negative over time and across time scales. Moreover, the CDS–stock correlation at longer horizons exhibits a much more stable pattern than its counterpart at shorter time frames. The results also demonstrate that the volatility of US Treasury and stock markets, as measured by the MOVE and VIX indices, respectively, the volatility of volatility, as captured by the VVIX index, and US economic policy uncertainty, as measured by the EPU index, are the most robust determinants of the correlation between CDS and stock returns at shorter and longer horizons for most US industries. In contrast, the Fama–French systematic equity factors exhibit a practically negligible explanatory power on the CDS–stock link.     

Analysts herding: when does sentiment matter?

Herding among analysts emerges when analysts give priority to their peers’ opinions instead of their own beliefs or information. Some circumstances may enhance or restrain this type of behaviour. We postulate that market sentiment is one of them. This article analyses the effect that investor sentiment may have on analysts’ herding behaviour in the U.K. Our results suggest that ‘easy situations’ such as analysing easy-to-value securities and releasing optimistic information at times of high market sentiment clearly reduce herding practices, whereas herding clearly increases in difficult situations when analysts have to release negative information at moments of high investor sentiment.     

Social Tourism and Healthy Ageing

Recent research in social tourism notes possible links between tourism participation and improvements in health. However, there is a lack of quantitative evidence concerning the potential links between tourism participation and self‐reported health amongst older people. An ageing society requires measures to promote independent living and enhance older people's quality of life. This paper provides evidence that older tourists are more active and healthy than non‐tourists, from a study comparing health perceptions amongst Spanish older people. The results provide tentative conclusions of causal relationships between tourism and dimensions of physical and mental health through a Structural Equation Model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three very simple games and what it takes to solve them

We study experimentally the nature of dominance violations in three minimalist dominance-solvable guessing games. Only about a third of our subjects report reasoning consistent with dominance; they all make dominant choices and almost all expect others to do so. Nearly two-third of our subjects report reasoning inconsistent with dominance, yet a quarter of them actually make dominant choices and half of those expect others to do so. Reasoning errors are more likely for subjects with lower working memory, intrinsic motivation and premeditation attitude. Dominance-incompatible reasoning arises mainly from subjects misrepresenting the strategic nature (payoff structure) of the guessing games.     

A spatial high-resolution model of the dynamics of agricultural land use

An area model is presented for agricultural land use, based on a generalized linear mixed model. This model is spatially explicit and dynamic and, although it uses aggregated data, allows for heterogeneity of behavior among individual farmers. The parameters of the fixed component of the model are obtained using an estimation equations approach, and the structure of spatiotemporal correlation is assessed using empirical semivariograms. The model is illustrated using as an example the dynamics of agricultural land use in the Lower Guadalquivir area in Spain. A simulation study indicates that the model gives poor results if the heterogeneity of individual behavior and spatiotemporal autocorrelation are ignored.     

Management of non-timber forestry products extraction: Local institutions, ecological knowledge and market structure in South-Eastern Zimbabwe

Common-pool resources (CPRs), such as forests, water resources and rangelands, provide a wide variety of economic benefits to forest-fringe dwellers in semi-arid areas of southern Africa. However, the public nature and competition involved in the use of these goods, and weak enforcement of institutional arrangements governing their use may lead to resource degradation. Using survey data from four communities in south-eastern Zimbabwe for 2008 and 2009, this paper examines the extent to which forest degradation is driven by existing common property management regimes resource and user characteristics, ecological knowledge and marketing structure. A Principal Component Analysis indicates that the existence of agreed-upon rules governing usage (including costs of usage), enforcement of these rules, sanctions for rule violations that are proportional to the severity of rule violation, social homogeneity, and strong beliefs in ancestral spirits were the most important attributes determining effectiveness of local institutions in the management of CPRs. Empirical results from a regression analysis showed that resource scarcity, market integration, and infrastructural development lead to greater resource degradation, while livestock income, high ecological knowledge, older households, and effective local institutional management of the commons reduce resource degradation. The results suggest that there is need for adaptive local management systems that enhance ecological knowledge of users and regulates market structure to favour long-term livelihood securities of these forest-fringe communities.     

An Austrian (Mis)Reads Adam Smith: A critique of Rothbard as intellectual historian

Murray Rothbard's posthumous Economic Thought Before Adam Smith is notable for its vilification of 'the quiet Scottish professor.' While there is little disagreement that Smith was, at best, an ambivalent champion of free markets, Rothbard's indictment of him as a proto-Marxist is less than persuasive. We argue that Rothbard's book suffers from logical flaws, selective and incomplete textual evidence, a misunderstanding of Das Adam Smith Problem and the relevant literature, and an unawareness of modern incentive-based theories of the firm and state anticipated in Book V of The Wealth of Nations.