The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK

This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of the diversion of migration flows away from Germany towards the UK in the course of the EU's Eastern Enlargement. The EU has agreed transitional periods for the free movement of workers with the new member states from Central and Eastern Europe. The selective application of migration restrictions during the transitional periods has resulted in a reversal of the pre-enlargement allocation of migration flows from the new member states across the EU. Based on a forecast of the migration potential under the conditions of free movement and of the transitional arrangements, we employ a CGE model with imperfect labour markets to analyse the macroeconomic effects of this diversion process. We find that EU Eastern enlargement has increased in the GDP per capita in the UK substantially, but that the diversion of migration flows towards the UK has reduced wage gains and the decline in unemployment there. The effects of the EU Eastern enlargement are less favourable for Germany, but the diversion of migration flows has protected workers there against a detrimental impact on wages and unemployment.     

Electricity spot price modelling with a view towards extreme spike risk

Sums of Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes are appropriate for modelling electricity spot price data. In this paper we present a new estimation method with particular emphasis on capturing the high peaks, which is one of the stylized features of such data. After introducing our method we show it at work for the EEX Phelix Base electricity price index. We also present a small simulation study to demonstrate the performance of our estimation procedure.     

Implementation of IFRS for SMEs in Emerging Economies: Stakeholder Perceptions in the Czech Republic,Hungary, Romania and Turkey

This research investigates the perceptions of stakeholders involved in financial reporting in four emerging economies (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, and Turkey) regarding the possible implementation of IFRS for SMEs, in terms of costs, benefits, and strategy of adoption. In‐depth, semi‐structured interviews were conducted with representatives of main stakeholders (preparers, auditors, regulators, professional bodies, and users). We find more support for IFRS for SMEs implementation in these four countries than suggested by the results of the European Commission's 2010 consultation for the European Union. Interviews reveal differences between stakeholder groups and between countries regarding the preferred implementation approach (mandatory adoption, voluntary adoption or convergence of national regulations with IFRS for SMEs). Interviews indicate the most support for the convergence approach. However, users oppose convergence and prefer the adoption of IFRS for SMEs. The convergence approach moves regulators' attention from users' needs to preparers' preferences and preparedness. This finding is relevant in the decision‐making process of national regulators, who should balance the needs of various stakeholders, but also the country's political and economic objectives.     

Do individual investors’ stock recommendations in online communities contain investment value?

This paper investigates the investment value of individual investors’ stock recommendations within online communities. We find that aggregated recommendations contain no explicit investment value and that following these recommendations may have a negative impact on investment performance. Our results suggest that recommendations are mostly based on simple heuristics and concentrate on a small number of stocks. When restricting the set of recommendations to those made by the most experienced or successful recommenders, results marginally improve but still preclude profitable investment strategies. Experienced and successful recommenders seem more likely to avoid the most expensive pitfalls rather than actually exhibit superior investment performance.     

Productivity change and the effects of policy reform in China's agriculture since 1979

During China's rural reforms, policies were frequently adjusted. Most policies favoured the continuation and deepening of reform; but some were contradictory or even led to regression in the reform process. How have the rural reforms affected China's agricultural production over the past three decades; and what lessons can be learned to aid the future course of reform? To answer these questions, this study estimates productivity change in China's agriculture and evaluates the effects of policy on agricultural output during the reform period. Aggregated provincial‐level data for the 1979–2008 period are used in a translog production frontier model to estimate indices of total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components—technical change, technical efficiency change, and a scale effect—with a focus on explaining the variation in technical efficiency. The estimation results show that the impressive improvement of TFP change is dominated by the technical change component. However, technical efficiency change and scale effects have worked against the improvement in TFP change in most periods. To improve technical efficiency, social welfare policies designed to eliminate the rural–urban divide, and reform polices focusing on factor market reforms, such as reform of the household registration system (hukou) and reform of land rights, seem to hold some potential.     

Investitionen in Next-Generation-Access-Netze: Zugangsverträge und Regulierung

Die Netzstrukturen im Bereich der Telekommunikation entwickeln sich weiter und erfordern neue Investitionen. Die notwendige Regulierung kann dabei verschiedene Formen annehmen und zu unterschiedlichen Zeitpunkten ansetzen. Die Autoren beschreiben die Netzinfrastruktur in Deutschland und zeigen die Ergebnisse der Regulierungsvarianten auf.