Sequential control of time series by functionals of kernal-weighted empirical processes under local alternatives

Motivated in part by applications in model selection in statistical genetics and sequential monitoring of financial data, we study an empirical process framework for a class of stopping rules which rely on kernel-weighted averages of past data. We are interested in the asymptotic distribution for time series data and an analysis of the joint influence of the smoothing policy and the alternative defining the deviation from the null model (in-control state). We employ a certain type of local alternative which provides meaningful insights. Our results hold true for short memory processes which satisfy a weak mixing condition. By relying on an empirical process framework we obtain both asymptotic laws for the classical fixed sample design and the sequential monitoring design. As a by-product we establish the asymptotic distribution of the Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoother when the regressors do not get dense as the sample size increases.Acknowledgements The author is grateful to two anonymous referees for their constructive comments, which improved the paper. One referee draws my attention to Lifshits paper. The financial support of the Collaborative Research Centre Reduction of Complexity in Multivariate Data Structures (SFB 475) of the German Research Foundation (DFG) is greatly acknowledged.     

Die Bestimmung von individuellen Effizienzvorgaben — Alternativen zum Best-of-Four-Verfahren

The setting of the individual X-factor is a core element of every incentive regulation system. The problem faced by the regulator is the choice among a wide variety of methods for setting the individual efficiency objectives. So far no single method could achieve acceptance as best-practice in both scientific research and regulatory practice. The German incentive regulation, which started in January 2009, uses the so called “Best-of-Four Method” to define individual X-factors. The regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, announced an in-depth evaluation of this method, because it potentially leads to an unacceptable downward bias in setting the individual efficiency objectives. This article illustrates the problems of the Best-of-Four Method and offers alternatives. The author additionally develops a new approach which is based on a multi-stage process, using economical and engineering methods. Finally all alternatives are compared according to various criteria.It can be shown that the complementary usage of Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis is a reasonable approach to efficiency analysis. But this raises the question how to transform the resulting efficiency scores into individual X-factors. The Best-of-Four Approach is not appropriate because it distorts the X-factors, offers possibilities for strategic behaviour and cannot guarantee comparability of the efficiency objectives. Comparing alternatives shows that no approach clearly dominates all others taking into account all considered criteria. The multi-stage approach offers a possibility of transforming a “Nordic Walking” into an ambitious fitness program while also setting appropriate and comparable individual X-factors.     

Extending the “P” perspective: An institutional account of management research in Australia

In commenting Meyer’s article “Asian management research needs more self-confidence” in APJM (2006), Yang and Terjesen (Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 24(4):497–507, 2007) described ground realities in Australia that may have inhibited the development of a robust management research community. As an Australia-trained and Australia-based Asian management scholar, I extend the “P” perspective by exploring how the formal and informal institutions interact in shaping Australia-based scholars’ publication strategies and research performance. Reflecting on my experience in Australia, I argue that like in any other businesses, institutions matter in our business of research and publication. They matter because they can shape the local “rule of the game” within which a country’s or a region’s scholars conduct and publish their research. A full institutional account of the current state of management research in the Asia Pacific region requires a deeper understanding of both formal and informal local institutions. From such an institutional perspective, this commentary concentrates on why Australian management research lags behind that in the US and Europe and yet leads the Asia Pacific region.

How do internal capabilities and external partnerships affect innovativeness?

How do a firm’s internal capabilities and external partnerships contribute to its product and process innovativeness? How do their impacts differ? Based on the theoretical framework of exploitation and exploration, we develop an integrative model linking the impact of both internal capabilities and external partnerships on product and process innovativeness. Survey responses from Taiwanese biotechnology firms indicate that research and development (R&;D), marketing, and manufacturing capabilities have different effects on product and process innovativeness. Of the four types of external partnerships, only partnerships with universities and research institutes seem to add value, whereas partnerships with suppliers, customers, and competitors do not contribute to innovativeness. Moreover, marketing capability and customer partnerships have a positive interaction effect on product innovativeness, while manufacturing capability and supplier partnerships have a positive interaction effect on process innovativeness.     

Deutschlands Energieversorgungsrisiko gestern,heute und morgen

Along with the oil price, concerns about the security of energy supply have soared once again in recent years. In this paper, we analyze Germany’s past und future energy security situation and compare it to that of other G7 countries using a statistical indicator of the long-term energy supply risk and empirical energy data for the years 1978 through 2007. We find that Germany’s energy supply risk has increased substantially since the oil price crises of the 1970s, whereas France and Japan have managed to reduce their risks dramatically, most notably through the deployment of nuclear power plants. Among G7 countries, Germany’s risk is only surpassed by that of Italy, while it can be expected that the German energy security situation may deteriorate in the future, not least due to the phase-out of nuclear power.     

Development of onshore wind energy utilisation in Germany

Onshore wind energy utilisation in Germany has developed very dynamically in the last decade. This has mainly been driven by the renewable energy laws that systematically support the expansion of renewable energy in the electricity sector. In 2009 a revised law with increased feed-in tariffs for wind energy has come into force. Existing studies already predict a wide range of development patterns under the Renewable Energy Sources Acts 2000 and 2004. This paper investigates the long term impact of different feed-in tariffs implemented by the legislative authorities and it provides corresponding future development patterns of onshore wind energy utilisation in Germany. The underlying System Dynamics model considers technical as well as economic conditions and constraints. The approach and the model’s results are contrasted with other published predictions qualitatively and quantitatively. This comparison shows that the model’s outcome lies in the range of predictions by existing studies, but also shows some interesting differences.

---

Zusammenfassung  Die Entwicklung der Windenergienutzung in Deutschland wahrend der letzten Dekade verlief sehr dynamisch. MagBgeblich dafur war die systematische Forde-rung mittels der Erneuerbare Energien Gesetze (EEG) bzw. deren Vorlaufer. Vom Jahr 2009 an gilt ein uberarbeitetes Gesetz, welches u.a. erhohte Einspeisever-gutungen furWindenergie beinhaltet.Vorliegende Studien, die sich mit derzu-kunftigen Entwicklung auseinandersetzten, zeigen bereits deutlich unterschied-liche Szenarien fur die Entwicklung unter dem EEG 2000 und 2004. Diese Arbeit setzt sich mit den langfristigen Auswirkungen der verschiedenen vom Gesetz-geber festgelegten Einspeisetarife auseinander und stellt entsprechend unter-schiedliche Ausbauszenarien fur die deutsche Onshore Windenergienutzung dar. Das zugrunde liegende System Dynamics Modell berucksichtigt dabei sowohl technische als auch okonomische Parameter. Der Ansatz sowie die Ergebnisse werden anderen veroffentlichten Prognosen gegenubergestellt. Die Ergebnisse liegen innerhalb der Spannbreite der anderen berucksichtigten Studien, zei-gen jedoch auch interessante Unterschiede.

     

Geothermische Stromerzeugung in Deutschland — Stiefkind oder schlafender Riese?

This contribution analyses the development of power generation from geothermal energy in Germany. It considers research funding schemes, the support through the german Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and the role of decisive actors as well as technical, economic and societal framework conditions. Compared to other renewable energy sources research funding for geothermal energy had played an inferior role in the past. After the potentials for geothermal power generation had been underlined by a study in 2003, geothermal power gained more political and institutional advocates. Subsequently it was equipped with a higher tariff in the EEG 2004 and led to realization of demonstration projects. Yet, the appliance of technologies for electrical power transformation, ORC and Kalina, are at the very beginning. Presently, the geothermal energy industry consists of a small amount of medium-sized businesses. Regional and nationwide energy providers, acting as operators and investors, do not exert much pressure in view of limited returns. Despite the compatibility with existing power supply systems, constraints to the expansion of geothermal energy use — above all exploration risks and high drilling costs- are likely to lead to a step-by step enhancement rather than a rush.     

Is abusive supervision an absolute devil? Literature review and research agenda

Abusive supervision has received increasing attention in the field. However, few studies have qualitatively reviewed its latest developments. The current paper reviews 48 studies on abusive supervision using content analysis. We identify six emerging trends of abusive supervision, including inconsistency of abusive behaviors, comparison between perceived and objective behaviors, reciprocity, team-level climate, coworker effects, and comparisons between theoretical perspectives. Based on a review of those six trends and some emerging findings, we identify and validate the possible positive effects of abusive supervision from an integrated analysis. We also determine the moderating role that Asian culture plays in differentiating the negative and positive effects of abusive supervision. Specifically, we identify the differences between Asian and Western cultures, and then explore the moral mechanisms (i.e., violation of moral standards, conflict of moral principles) through which abusive supervision may exert positive effects in the Asian cultural context. Finally, we clarify our theoretical implications and provide suggestions for future research.     

Informing a pedagogy for design and problem-solving in hard materials by theorising technologists’ learning experiences

Design and problem solving are central to technology and have distinguished learning in technology from other curriculum areas. This research investigated how expert technologists learn design and problem solving through experience. Data was collected from four expert technologists and this information was analysed using learning theories that focus on learning through experience—that is experiential learning theory, situated cognition, distributed cognition and activity theory. This framework of analysis provided evidence that learning through experience is central to these experts’ development and justify a broader construct of experience than normally associated with hard materials. This information supports curriculum development in hard materials technology that employs a wide range of experiences and provides justification for curriculum developers and teachers to justify, inform and develop effective design and problem solving learning programmes focussed on a broadened construct of experience.     

Learning design and technology through social networks for high school students in China

The subject of design and technology was introduced to the curriculum for high schools in China 10 years ago. However, the teaching and learning of this subject have become difficult for both teachers and students because there is a lack of qualified teachers with design background to deliver this subject in a way to stimulate the learning interests of the students. This paper presents a research that is aimed at improving this situation by integrating the teaching and learning of design and technology within a computational environment as part of social networks sites. The purpose is to enable the collaboration among the students and interaction between teachers and students. In this research, a series of investigations were conducted, by following through several taught subjects in design and technology in prominent high schools in China. Based on these investigations, a theoretical framework for web-based design learning and teaching system in the style of social networking is developed, implemented and tested, emphasizing three features of design: innovation, collaboration, and interaction. This framework has been tested among high school students and teachers in a high school in Nanjing. It identified and validated necessary techniques and design features required to make an education-related social networking site effective and affective for the students and teachers. The results of this research indicated that social networking sites have significantly positive values in design education, especially for the collaboration and interaction on the subject of design and technology.