浅论电力工程施工安全管理工作的方法

电力工程施工安全管理关系到电力施工企业的生存发展，必须给予高度的重视。文章分析了施工现场安全管理的重要性，并就目前电力工程施工现场的安全管理现状，结合实际工程,提出了加强电力工程施工安全管理工作的几点建议。     

港口物流系统的调度仿真研究

港口调度是港口生产组织的关键问题,调度方案的好坏直接决定了港口作业的效率,本文首先对集装箱港口物流系统的结构、控制需求等进行了分析,然后提出了应用AutoModV10.0仿真软件,构建具有离散性、随机性特征的港口物流系统模型的方法。     

论我国“三沿”地区发展外向型经济的新格局

在邓小平同志巡视南方的谈话后,我国出现了发展外向型经济的新格局。即除在沿海地区继续实施外向型经济发展战略外,沿江(长江)、沿边(周边)各省区也抓住当前有利时机,急起直追沿海地区发展外向型经济。这种沿江、沿边与沿海遥相呼应发展外向型经济的新格局的形成,对促进我国经济上个新台阶,实现第二步战略目标,具有重大意义。本文拟就我国“三沿”地区发展外向型经济的原因、意义和如何推动这种新格局进一步发展等问题作一探讨。     

世贸组织框架下贸易规则与环保条款的协调及困境

目标和价值的不同、环境问题的外部性和环保条款本身的含糊性是贸易规则与环保条款冲突的原因。应通过可持续发展观、环境成本内在化、加强国际合作和统一规制来协调贸易规则与环保条款的关系。但也存在一些超越世贸组织协调机制之外的困境。     

从“生产导向”到“幸福导向”镜鉴:源自不丹和法国

对两个在国际上较早发起幸福研究的国家,即来自发达国家的法国和发展中国家的不丹的幸福研究成果进行梳理,可以发现:在新转型时代,发展测量体系应实现从生产导向到幸福导向的转变,公共政策制定除生产性产出的经济绩效之外,更要注重立足于为民众谋幸福的社会进步,社会的发展应由经济建设时代逐步过渡到社会建设时代。     

社会资本对众筹项目融资成功率影响的实证研究

利用中国4个主流众筹平台(点名时间、众筹网、淘梦网、中国梦网)上的365个项目的信息以及318个项目发起人在两大社交平台(新浪、腾讯)上的社交网络数据,从众筹项目发起人的角度研究了其个人社会资本和地域社会资本对众筹项目融资成功率的影响。研究结果显示:发起人的个人社会资本和地域社会资本均与项目融资成功率正相关;整个融资过程中存在明显的地域歧视现象,且在融资临近截止期"地域歧视现象"最为显著。     

广西国内旅游发展的区域差异研究

文章利用Theil指数、标准差及变异系数等方法分析2003-2011年广西各市及桂东、桂南、桂西、桂北、桂中等五个区域的国内旅游收入之间的差异,研究发现广西国内旅游区域发展差异逐年缩小,区域内的差异大于区域间的差异,区域内的差异是总差异的主要影响因素。针对目前广西国内旅游发展的差异分析结果,提出了相应的对策。     

Has the Chinese currency been undervalued?

China's trade surplus reached a record $102 billion in 2005 while the US trade deficit of $717 billion accounted for 5.8% of US Gross Domestic Product in the same year. US policy makers claim China's currency is undervalued about 25 to 35% against the US dollar and they blame China for holding the value of the RMB weak to keep Chinese products competitive on prices in international markets. Given the unique situation in China, where the capital account is only partially convertible and the economy has been growing at an annual average rate of 10% over the last two decades, this paper empirically examines the magnitude of the exchange rate misalignment of China's RMB against the US dollar by using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER) models. Our results show that the RMB was undervalued by approximately 15% from 2002:Q2 to 2003:Q4; however, it is interesting to note that while the RMB was overvalued during 1997:Q4–2002:Q2, China experienced a huge trade surplus during that period.     

Local elections and consumption insurance

During our sample period from 1987 to 2002, Chinese villages completed the transition from government‐appointed village leaders to elected ones. This article examines if and how much democratic elections of the village leaders affected consumption insurance by Chinese village residents. Exploring a panel dataset of 1,400 households from this period, we find that consumption insurance is around 20 percent more complete with elected village leaders. Furthermore, local elections improve consumption insurance only for the poor and middle‐income farmers, but not for the rich. The results are robust when we allow for pretrending, potential endogeneity of elections, and higher measurement errors for rich residents. We also find that the effects on consumption insurance are stronger when closer to the upcoming election year and when the village committees consist largely of non‐Communist Party members. These findings suggest that the election effects on consumption insurance partly come from increasing accountability to local constituents.     

Modelling dependence using skew t copulas: Bayesian inference and applications

We construct a copula from the skew t distribution of Sahu et al. ( 2003 ). This copula can capture asymmetric and extreme dependence between variables, and is one of the few copulas that can do so and still be used in high dimensions effectively. However, it is difficult to estimate the copula model by maximum likelihood when the multivariate dimension is high, or when some or all of the marginal distributions are discrete‐valued, or when the parameters in the marginal distributions and copula are estimated jointly. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach that overcomes all these problems. The computations are undertaken using a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method which exploits the conditionally Gaussian representation of the skew t distribution. We employ the approach in two contemporary econometric studies. The first is the modelling of regional spot prices in the Australian electricity market. Here, we observe complex non‐Gaussian margins and nonlinear inter‐regional dependence. Accurate characterization of this dependence is important for the study of market integration and risk management purposes. The second is the modelling of ordinal exposure measures for 15 major websites. Dependence between websites is important when measuring the impact of multi‐site advertising campaigns. In both cases the skew t copula substantially outperforms symmetric elliptical copula alternatives, demonstrating that the skew t copula is a powerful modelling tool when coupled with Bayesian inference. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.