Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links

This paper introduces a regime-switching combination approach to predict excess stock returns. The approach explicitly incorporates model uncertainty, regime uncertainty, and parameter uncertainty. The empirical findings reveal that the regime-switching combination forecasts of excess returns deliver consistent out-of-sample forecasting gains relative to the historical average and the Rapach et al. (2010) combination forecasts. The findings also reveal that two regimes are related to the business cycle. Based on the business cycle explanation of regimes, excess returns are found to be more predictable during economic contractions than during expansions. Finally, return forecasts are related to the real economy, thus providing insights on the economic sources of return predictability.     

经济发达地区农民违法建房问题浅析

随着社会经济和城市化的发展,很多地区尤其是经济发达地区,农民违法建房的现象非常普遍,而且呈现出越来越严重的发展趋势。农民违法建房有着历史、社会经济和制度等多方面的原因,农民违法建房给旧村改造、村庄规划带来了很大的困难,在一定程度上阻碍了社会主义新农村建设的步伐。     

我国现阶段加强城市社区管理法治化建设探析

城市社区管理法治化建设是我国社会主义法治建设的重要组成部分,是构建和谐社会、维护社会稳定、繁荣的必然要求。本文从马克思主义法学视角对我国现阶段加强城市社区管理法治化建设的重要性、面临的主要问题以及逐步推动城市社区管理法治化进程的主要路径等问题进行了探析。     

基于客户价值的厂商对经销商委托代理研究

厂商与经销商的委托代理关系是营销管理中的一种特殊而重要的关系,是决定企业经营成败的关键因素之一。本文着重分析道德风险下的委托代理模型,基于客户价值的角度改进原有激励模型,分析模型结果,并加以总结说明。     

社会网络视角下家族企业外部资源的获取

传统家族企业把发展重点放在企业内部资源上，对外部资源获取重视程度不够。通过家族企业领导人社会网络的构建和延伸，社会资本的开发和使用，拓展网络的可达性，提高家族企业聚集、使用资源的能力，增强家族企业的市场竞争力。     

做好群众工作 化解社会矛盾——关于加强和改进蓬莱市群众工作的调查及建议

密切联系群众是我们党的最大优势。做好群众工作是构建社会主义和谐社会的需要。新的历史时期如何做好群众工作需要既注重解决好涉及群众利益的突出问题,又着力在建立健全群众工作的领导体制与工作机制上下工夫。     

Empirical evidence of the value of monitoring in joint ownership

Joint ownership of assets by two partners can have an adverse effect on the incentives to invest and can result in unstable and inefficient organizational structures. Control sharing, however, plays an important role in economic, political, and social institutions. There is scarce empirical evidence on the benefits of joint ownership in corporate finance. We analyze acquisitions of corporate assets by joint ventures to empirically ascertain the value of joint ownership in economic activities. The results indicate that firms experience significantly larger returns in joint acquisitions than in full-control acquisitions and that this difference is restricted to the sample of firms in which both partners share equal ownership in the target. These findings suggest that monitoring in joint ownership structures ameliorates the possibility of value-destroying corporate decisions.     

经济调节方式与社会主义的经济改革

我国社会主义经济改革的历史已经证明,计划调节依然是社会主义经济基本的和主要的调节方式,这是由社会主义经济制度的特殊性质决定的。在现代市场经济条件下,要正确处理计划调节和市场调节的关系,重新构建社会主义经济的计划机制模式。     

The Past Decade Saw Changing Role of China in the WTO

China joined the WTO to become its 143rd member state on November 10, 2001 after eight years of negotiations. A seminar titled the Future of China and WTO was held in Beijing on the tenth anniversary o...     

浅析房地产项目环境影响评价中的公众参与

公众参与是环境影响评价的重要组成部分,本文针对房地产环评的特殊性,着重分析了房地产环评中公众参与存在的问题,并针对这些问题提出了几点提高公众参与效力的建议。