Inflation and the stock market: Understanding the “Fed Model”

The so-called Fed model postulates that the dividend or earnings yield on stocks should equal the yield on nominal Treasury bonds, or at least that the two should be highly correlated. In US data there is indeed a strikingly high time series correlation between the yield on nominal bonds and the dividend yield on equities. This positive correlation is often attributed to the fact that both bond and equity yields comove strongly and positively with expected inflation. Contrary to some of the extant literature, we show that this effect is consistent with modern asset pricing theory incorporating uncertainty about real growth prospects and habit-based risk aversion. In the US, high expected inflation has tended to coincide with periods of heightened uncertainty about real economic growth and unusually high risk aversion, both of which rationally raise equity yields.     

On the diffusion of toilets as bottom of the pyramid innovation: Lessons from sanitation entrepreneurs

There is an emerging body of literature on product innovations for the poor at the bottom of the income pyramid. However, there is little on why delivery systems succeed or fail in this context and the present paper attempts to fill this void by examining why and how sanitation entrepreneurs are succeeding in India to diffuse toilets — an innovation for rural households, which never had access to one before. The literature is analyzed and confronted with the actual field practices. We demonstrate that the common thread that unifies progressive sanitation entrepreneurs is their adoption of a ‘market based approach’. There are market failures stemming from the demand side due to problems in expression of demand and its mismatch with the perceived value of the innovation. In response, sanitation entrepreneurs go beyond the standard linear model of assessing need and appropriateness of technology. They create innovations in ‘technological design’ as well as in the ‘delivery platforms’ to include practices for ‘accompaniment’, ‘sustainable maintenance’ and ‘generation of knowledge'. Thus, they make-up for sluggish or missing markets and informational asymmetries to ensure sustained use of toilets.     

Teams and their Context: Moving the Team Discussion Beyond Existing Dichotomies

The dichotomies which have been proposed to distinguish between what can be labelled 'sociotechnical' and 'Japanese' teams oversimplify the 'team discussion'. They combine team characteristics and contextual factors which should be separated, contain biases, and have an infirm basis. As an alternative we propose an analytical framework to improve our theoretical understanding of how relevant contextual factors impact the design of jobs and organizations     

Comparing Approximations for Risk Measures of Sums of Nonindependent Lognormal Random Variables

Abstract

In this paper we consider different approximations for computing the distribution function or risk measures related to a discrete sum of nonindependent lognormal random variables. Comonotonic upper and lower bound approximations for such sums have been proposed in Dhaene et al. (2002a,b). We introduce the comonotonic “maximal variance” lower bound approximation. We also compare the comonotonic approximations with two well-known moment-matching approximations: the lognormal and the reciprocal Gamma approximations. We find that for a wide range of parameter values the comonotonic “maximal variance” lower bound approximation outperforms the other approximations.     

The Bolivian Social Investment Fund: An Analysis of Baseline Data for Impact Evaluation

The Bolivian Social Investment Fund (SIF) is a financial institutionthat promotes sustainable investments in the social sectors,principally in the areas of health, education, and sanitation.This article shows how to use preintervention data collectedfor evaluating the SIF to improve the targeting of a program,to test the quality of the evaluation design, and to definecorrective measures if necessary. It finds that among SIF interventionsthe benefits in education are distributed relatively equallyover the population, while the investments in health and sanitationfavor better-off communities. The article contributes to the methods used to evaluate socialinvestment funds and similar programs. It compares two typesof evaluation designs to assess social investment fund interventionsin the education sector. The authors demonstrate that a simplematched-comparison design introduces a bias in the estimateof the program effect, whereas an experimental design basedon random assignment does not. With preintervention data, theanalyst can select a quasi or indirect experiment, where thechoice of the indirect experiment coincides with the selectionof valid instrumental variables. The availability of preinterventiondata makes it possible to compare the two types of evaluationdesigns as well as to test the validity of the instruments andto determine the loss of efficiency due to the use of quasi-experimentaltechniques instead of random treatment assignment.     

Convergence and divergence in consumer behavior: implications for international retailing

Converging technology and disappearing income differences across countries will not lead to homogenization of consumer behavior. Rather, consumer behavior will become more heterogeneous because of cultural differences. As consumer incomes converge across countries, the manifestation of value differences will become stronger. This phenomenon makes it increasingly important to understand values of national cultures and their impact on consumer behavior. Retailing strategies for one country cannot be extended to other countries without adaptation. Hofstede’s model of national culture is applied to understand differences in consumer behavior across countries. Examples are provided of consumption differences, their relationships with culture discussed, and selected implications for international retailing management detailed.     

Pairs Trading: Performance of a Relative-Value Arbitrage Rule

We test a Wall Street investment strategy, "pairs trading,"with daily data over 1962–2002. Stocks are matched intopairs with minimum distance between normalized historical prices.A simple trading rule yields average annualized excess returnsof up to 11% for self-financing portfolios of pairs. The profitstypically exceed conservative transaction-cost estimates. Bootstrapresults suggest that the "pairs" effect differs from previouslydocumented reversal profits. Robustness of the excess returnsindicates that pairs trading profits from temporary mispricingof close substitutes. We link the profitability to the presenceof a common factor in the returns, different from conventionalrisk measures.     

Recursions for Distribution Functions and Stop-Loss Transforms

For any function f on the non-negative integers, we can evaluate the cumulative function o f given by o f ( s )= ~ s x=0 f ( x ) from the values of f by the recursion o f ( s )= o f ( s -1)+ f ( s ). Analogously we can use this procedure t times to evaluate the t -th order cumulative function o t f . As an alternative, in the present paper we shall derive recursions for direct evaluation of o t f when f itself satisfies a certain sort of recursion. We shall also derive recursions for the t -th order tails v t f where v f ( s )= ~ X x=s+1 f ( x ). The recursions can be applied for exact and approximate evaluation of distribution functions and stop-loss transforms of probability distributions. The class of recursions for f includes the classes discussed by Sundt (1992), incorporating the class studied by Panjer's (1981). We discuss in particular convolutions and compound functions.     

Daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Interventions

This paper reports on the results of an empirical investigation into the objectives of daily foreign exchange market intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System in the U.S. dollar-Deutsche Mark market. Tobit analysis is implemented to estimate the intervention reaction functions consistently. It is found that an increase in the conditional variance in daily exchange rate returns derived from a GARCH model estimated in the paper, led the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve to increase the volume of intervention, both in case of dollar-sales and purchases on account of their leaning against the wind policy.We are grateful to the Deutsche Bundesbank, Hauptabteilung Ausland for kindly providing, on a confidential base, the daily data on the official interventions of the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve, the latter only to the extent that they affected the net foreign position of the Bundesbank. Also, we want to thank Theo Nijman and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Opinions and errors are our own responsibility.