Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?

Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S. inflation out-of-sample: time-series ARIMA models; regressions using real activity measures motivated from the Phillips curve; term structure models that include linear, non-linear, and arbitrage-free specifications; and survey-based measures. We also investigate several methods of combining forecasts. Our results show that surveys outperform the other forecasting methods and that the term structure specifications perform relatively poorly. We find little evidence that combining forecasts produces superior forecasts to survey information alone. When combining forecasts, the data consistently places the highest weights on survey information.     

Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?

We examine the predictive power of the dividend yields for forecastingexcess returns, cash flows, and interest rates. Dividend yieldspredict excess returns only at short horizons together withthe short rate and do not have any long-horizon predictive power.At short horizons, the short rate strongly negatively predictsreturns. These results are robust in international data andare not due to lack of power. A present value model that matchesthe data shows that discount rate and short rate movements playa large role in explaining the variation in dividend yields.Finally, we find that earnings yields significantly predictfuture cash flows. (JEL C12, C51, C52, E49, F30, G12)     

Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets

Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity,emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examinethe impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquiditymeasure is a transformation of the proportion of zero dailyfirm returns, averaged over the month. We find that it significantlypredicts future returns, whereas alternative measures such asturnover do not. Consistent with liquidity being a priced factor,unexpected liquidity shocks are positively correlated with contemporaneousreturn shocks and negatively correlated with shocks to the dividendyield. We consider a simple asset-pricing model with liquidityand the market portfolio as risk factors and transaction coststhat are proportional to liquidity. The model differentiatesbetween integrated and segmented countries and time periods.Our results suggest that local market liquidity is an importantdriver of expected returns in emerging markets, and that theliberalization process has not fully eliminated its impact.     

Competence and Governance in Strategic Collaboration: The Differential Effect of Network Structure on the Creation of Core and Noncore Technology

Whereas most of the literature on the benefits of alliances for learning and innovation has taken on a competence perspective, this paper provides an alternative integrated framework based on both a competence and governance point of view. The former focuses on the role of knowledge flows as means to access new knowledge, whereas the latter is centered around the core concepts of opportunism and freeridership in knowledge exchange situations. Although it has generally been acknowledged that competence‐based benefits of collaboration may come at a price of elevated risks due to knowledge spillovers and freeridership, such a governance view remains understudied. This paper explains how a firm's alliance network structure affects benefits as well as risks of collaboration in the context of the creation of core and noncore technology. In the case of core technology, firms attach more value to reducing governance‐based risks relative to obtaining competence‐based benefits. The opposite is found when firms develop noncore technology. This paper contributes to the existing literature by going beyond the common idea that competence and governance perspectives are either complementary or competing. Instead, this study shows that for technology‐based collaboration, they can both apply at the same time, implying a trade‐off in some cases and offering synergy in other cases. Based on an empirical test in three different industries (pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and automotive), there is support for most of our hypotheses. Direct ties have an inverted U‐shaped effect on both core and noncore technology, and the effect is relatively stronger for the former. The results furthermore show that indirect ties play a positive role in noncore technology development and that this effect is not hampered by the number of direct ties a firm has. In contrast, indirect ties seem to hamper core competence development when companies have a lot of direct ties. Finally, firms are found to benefit from nonredundancy in their alliance network in their efforts to strengthen their core technology. The joint effect of these three network characteristics leads to optimal results for core and noncore technologies under quite different alliance network structures. This poses a problem for the ambidexterity of companies, when they simultaneously try to strengthen core and noncore technologies.     

Multi-Regime Interactions in the Dutch Energy Sector: The Case of Combined Heat and Power Technologies in the Netherlands 1970–2000

This article is about multi-regime interactions in energy sectors. Multi-regime interactions are interactions between fairly well defined and separated systems of production, intermediation and use. It is argued that multi-regime interactions have been underexposed in previous innovation literature, yet it is hypothesized that multi-regime interactions are critically important for understanding transition processes, and in particular for current transitions in European energy sectors. Based on a case study on combined heat and power (CHP) in the Netherlands, a typology is developed of four types of interaction: competition, symbiosis, integration and spill over.     

Learning in strategic technology alliances

In this paper we examine the influence of strategic technology alliances on organisational learning. From an empirical perspective we examine the pre- and post-alliance knowledge bases of allying firms. We find that the pre-alliance knowledge base overlap of the allying firms has an inverted U-shaped relationship with the degree of learning taking place in the alliance. Alliances established for the purpose of learning also show a significantly greater increase in knowledge base overlap for the allying firms than for non-learning alliance or non-allying firms. This shows the particular importance of learning alliances as a vehicle for organisational learning and competence development. Contrary to what we expected we found that weak ties are more important than strong ties in organisational learning within strategic alliances.     

A Conceptually-Based Empirical Analysis on Quality Differences Between UK Annual Reports and US 10-K Reports

The International Accounting Standards Board （IASB） and the Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB） stress the importance of high-quality ＇financial reports. From a scientific point of view, however, major methodological drawbacks can arise when trying to arrive at a comprehensive assessment and evaluation of the decision usefulness of financial reports. In this conceptually-based exploratory study, the authors construct a 33-item index aimed at operationalizing decision usefulness in terms of the fundamental and enhancing qualitative characteristics laid out in the conceptual framework （CF） of the IASB （2010）. Using a matched-pairs sample design, which includes 70 UK annual reports and 70 US 10-K reports for 2010, the results of test-retest and inter-rater reliability tests show that these multiple items, which were based on items used in previous research, can be measured in a reliable manner. At the same time, the results of an exploratory factor analysis indicate that the IASB qualitative characteristics cannot be measured separately when the 33-item index is applied. At an aggregate level, the results of paired-sample t-tests reveal that UK reports score on average higher than US 10-K reports, which suggests that the overall quality of UK reports is better. The findings of this study add to the existing literature on the empirical evaluation of the effects of international accounting standards, showing that, as compared with 10-K reports, UK annual reports provide more information on topics such as corporate social responsibility （CSR）, corporate governance, and annual bonus schemes. On the other hand, US reports outperform UK reports with respect to the content of fair value information, cash flow statements, off-balance financing, and audit reporting.     

Double serial correlation for multilevel growth curve models

Multilevel growth curve models for repeated measures data have become increasingly popular and stand as a flexible tool for investigating longitudinal change in students’ outcome variables. In addition, these models allow the estimation of school effects on students’ outcomes though making strong assumptions about the serial independence of level-1 residuals. This paper introduces a method which takes into account the serial correlation of level-1 residuals and also introduces such serial correlation at level-2 in a complex double serial correlation (DSC) multilevel growth curve model. The results of this study from both real and simulated data show a great improvement in school effects estimates compared to those that have previously been found using multilevel growth curve models without correcting for DSC for both the students’ status and growth criteria.     

The effect of procedural justice in the relationship between charismatic leadership and feedback reactions in performance appraisal

In this study, the relationship between procedural justice, charismatic leadership and feedback reactions (i.e. perceived feedback utility and feedback accuracy) is investigated. We conducted both regression analyses and path analyses (n = 299) to establish whether there is a moderating or mediating effect of charismatic leadership in the relationship between procedural justice and feedback reactions of teachers. Our results indicate there is a mediating effect of charismatic leadership. This demonstrates that besides the appraisal system, charismatic leadership is important for feedback reactions. Hence, supervisors should take into account that they have an important function to fulfill when conducting performance appraisals and not see performance appraisal as just another perfunctory system in human resource management.