DOES THE ECB HAVE A TIME‐INCONSISTENCY PROBLEM? A NOTE

A standard time‐inconsistency model of monetary policy, extended to include a time‐varying natural rate of unemployment, implies cointegration between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. An application of the model to data for the EMU countries does not yield strong evidence of cointegration. In addition, the sign of the estimated coefficient of cointegration is not in line with a sign restriction imposed by the time‐inconsistency model.     

A note on forecasting the prices of gold and silver: Asymmetric loss and forecast rationality

Given that the prices of gold and silver have witnessed large and substantial swings in recent years, policymakers and investors need readily available and reliable forecasts of the prices of these two precious metals. Survey data of forecasts of the prices of gold and silver provide a particularly rich data environment for policymakers and investors to study developments in the markets for gold and silver. Our research helps to develop a deeper understanding of the properties of survey data of the prices of gold and silver. We study the shape of forecasters’ loss function and the rationality of their forecasts. Assuming an asymmetric loss function weakens evidence against forecast rationality, but results depend on the empirical model being studied.     

Wettbewerb und Regulierung des Bahnmarktes

Die Wettbewerbssituation auf dem deutschen Bahnmarkt ist vielschichtig: Sowohl die verschiedenen Teilsegmente des Bahnmarktes als auch der intermodale Wettbewerb müssen berücksichtigt werden. Dabei besteht die Gefahr, die Wettbewerbsposition des gesamten Eisenbahnverkehrs gegenüber anderen Verkehrstr?gern aus den Augen zu verlieren.     

Corporate Strategies for Managing Climate Risks

This paper focuses on organizations and their management of climate risks. Climate risks stem from continued changes in climate means and the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. We ask whether companies also apply the usual process of corporate risk management to climate risks. In seeking to answer this question, we review several literature streams in order to set out an initial theoretical reflection. Based on this we conducted an exploratory case study with 11 electric utilities. Our results illustrate that these companies perceive climatic changes as a material issue for their business. However, management has restricted knowledge about such climatic changes and thus cannot precisely determine the potential negative impacts on business activities. As a consequence, the companies have implemented a climate risk management that does not differ from the usual process of managing other business risks. Our results further illustrate that there is some variation in how individual firms manage climate risks: While risk identification and risk assessment are equally important for all electric utilities, there are differences in how management determines the direction of the individual response to climate risks. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Additionality of public R&D grants in a transition economy

This paper examines the input and output additionality of public R&D subsidies in Western and Eastern Germany. We estimate the impact of public R&D grants on firms’ R&D and innovation input. Based on the results of this first step we compare the impact of publicly funded private R&D on innovation output with the output effect of R&D funded out of firms’ own pockets. We employ microeconometric evaluation methods using firm‐level data derived from the Mannheim Innovation Panel. Our results point towards a large degree of additionality in public R&D grants with regard to innovation input measured as R&D expenditures and innovation expenditures, as well as with regard to innovation output measured by patent applications. Input additionality has been more pronounced in Eastern Germany during the transition period than in Western Germany. However, R&D productivity is still larger for the established Western German innovation system than for Eastern Germany. Hence, a regional redistribution of public R&D subsidies might improve the overall innovation output of the German economy.     

WTO: Stillstand ohne Abschluss

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

How to suppress a lead

According to the findings of Schöler (1994)¹ the “Business Climate” developed by the ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich, cannot be used as a leading indicator for business cycle forecast. This paper shows that this result is due to Schöler's choice of statistical methods applied: apart from generating stationary time series, Schöler's filter systematically suppresses the business cycle components and amplifies the irregular components. It impairs the basis for the causality test.     

Corporate morality called in question: The case of Cabora Bassa

This article presents a case study of a big German enterprise (Siemens) facing a large wave of public critique and protest activities. The public was concerned about the political circumstances surrounding the construction of the Cabora Bassa hydroelectric dam in Mozambique in which Siemens was largely involved.This study reports the escalating protest against the firm over three years (1970–1972) and the firm's responses during that period. The analysis of the case focusses on the behaviour of the firm which is interpreted in the light of the business social responsibility doctrine. The article proposes that the firm experienced a legitimation crisis and responded by reorienting its philosophy of business.Georg Schreyögg is Professor of Management at the Department of Business at Fern Universität Hagen. He has written five books on Quality of Working Life, Organizational Theory and Business Strategy, and several articles, published in various business journals. His recent research has addressed strategic control.Horst Steinmann is Professor of Management at the faculty of business at Universität Erlange-Nürnberg. He has written several books and a number of articles. His most recent research interest focusses on business ethics and the philosophy of dialogue.Our case is based on an analysis of documents and on interviews. Because the project received wide public interest, many documents, handbills, memoranda, articles, etc. were available. In addition, we had access to internal Siemens documents (letters, internal memoranda, policy statements, delivered opinions, etc.). Much of the material was filed in the Cabora Bassa archive of Siemens which was kindly opened to the researchers. Reconstructing the flow of events was facilitated by interviews with Siemens managers then responsible for the project. The company approved of the publication of the internal memoranda and data cited. Special thanks are due to Wilhelm Forstmann for his support and his willingness to answer all our questions in a series of interviews.     

Trends in the international competitiveness of industrial countries

It has become fashionable in recent times to describe the state of the Western European economies with the word “eurosclerosis”. Is the international competitiveness of these economies really as ailing as this world implies? The following article attempts to answer this question using various methods of measuring international competitiveness.