WTO: Stillstand ohne Abschluss

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

How to suppress a lead

According to the findings of Schöler (1994)¹ the “Business Climate” developed by the ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich, cannot be used as a leading indicator for business cycle forecast. This paper shows that this result is due to Schöler's choice of statistical methods applied: apart from generating stationary time series, Schöler's filter systematically suppresses the business cycle components and amplifies the irregular components. It impairs the basis for the causality test.     

Corporate morality called in question: The case of Cabora Bassa

This article presents a case study of a big German enterprise (Siemens) facing a large wave of public critique and protest activities. The public was concerned about the political circumstances surrounding the construction of the Cabora Bassa hydroelectric dam in Mozambique in which Siemens was largely involved.This study reports the escalating protest against the firm over three years (1970–1972) and the firm's responses during that period. The analysis of the case focusses on the behaviour of the firm which is interpreted in the light of the business social responsibility doctrine. The article proposes that the firm experienced a legitimation crisis and responded by reorienting its philosophy of business.Georg Schreyögg is Professor of Management at the Department of Business at Fern Universität Hagen. He has written five books on Quality of Working Life, Organizational Theory and Business Strategy, and several articles, published in various business journals. His recent research has addressed strategic control.Horst Steinmann is Professor of Management at the faculty of business at Universität Erlange-Nürnberg. He has written several books and a number of articles. His most recent research interest focusses on business ethics and the philosophy of dialogue.Our case is based on an analysis of documents and on interviews. Because the project received wide public interest, many documents, handbills, memoranda, articles, etc. were available. In addition, we had access to internal Siemens documents (letters, internal memoranda, policy statements, delivered opinions, etc.). Much of the material was filed in the Cabora Bassa archive of Siemens which was kindly opened to the researchers. Reconstructing the flow of events was facilitated by interviews with Siemens managers then responsible for the project. The company approved of the publication of the internal memoranda and data cited. Special thanks are due to Wilhelm Forstmann for his support and his willingness to answer all our questions in a series of interviews.     

Trends in the international competitiveness of industrial countries

It has become fashionable in recent times to describe the state of the Western European economies with the word “eurosclerosis”. Is the international competitiveness of these economies really as ailing as this world implies? The following article attempts to answer this question using various methods of measuring international competitiveness.     

Produzieren,Konsumieren und die Rolle der Konsumgenossenschaften

Ohne ZusammenfassungDem Aufsatz liegt ein Vortrag zugrunde, den der Verfasser am 2. 6. 1960 unter dem Titel Der Mensch als Produzent und Verbraucher auf dem Verbandstag 1960 der bayerischen Konsumgenossenschaften, dem 50jährigen Gründungsjubiläum des Verbandes, in Garmisch gehalten hat.     

Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti‐herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti‐herding seems to vary over time. We also found that more pronounced anti‐herding leads to less accurate forecasts.     

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Income and distance elasticities of values of travel time savings: New Swiss results

This paper presents the findings of a study looking into the valuation of travel time savings (VTTS) in Switzerland, across modes as well as across purpose groups. The study makes several departures from the usual practice in VTTS studies, with the main one being a direct representation of the income and distance elasticity of the VTTS measures. Here, important gains in model performance and significantly different results are obtained through this approach. Additionally, the analysis shows that the estimation of robust coefficients for congested car travel time is hampered by the low share of congested time in the overall travel time, and the use of an additional rate-of-congestion coefficient, in addition to a generic car travel time coefficient, is preferable. Finally, the analysis demonstrates that the population mean of the indicators calculated is quite different from the sample means and presents methods to calculate those, along with the associated variances. These variances are of great interest as they allow the generation of confidence intervals, which can be extremely useful in cost-benefit analyses.