Antecedents to Decision‐Making Quality and Agility in Innovation Portfolio Management

Innovation portfolio management (IPM) is a dynamic decision‐making process, in which projects are evaluated and selected, and resources are allocated. Previous research has developed an understanding of IPM success and its influencing factors. However, little research investigated the quality of the decision‐making process and the ability to quickly adapt the portfolio. This study focuses on the antecedents of decision‐making quality and agility (i.e., responsiveness to changes in the environment). Based on a decision‐making framework, five structural and cultural IPM components are derived as important antecedents of decision‐making quality, which in turn influences agility. The structural components (1) clarity of strategic goals, (2) formality of the IPM processes, and (3) controlling intensity serve a coordinating function. The cultural components (4) innovation climate and (5) risk climate serve a motivating function in IPM. An analysis of a sample of 179 firms and their innovation portfolios through structural equation modeling using a double‐informant design documents that these five components all positively influence portfolio decision‐making quality, which in turn positively influences agility. Results further show that environmental turbulence moderates some of these relationships. While the positive effect of process formality is weakened under increasing turbulence, the effects of controlling intensity and climate for innovation are strengthened by environmental turbulence. The findings have theoretical implications for the understanding of IPM as a dynamic capability and practical implications for the management of portfolios in turbulent environments.     

Active and Forced Choice for Overcoming Status Quo Bias: A Field Experiment on the Adoption of “No junk mail” Stickers in Berlin,Germany

Consumers around the world are burdened by large amounts of unaddressed junk mail. Attaching “No junk mail” stickers to mailboxes offers a simple solution for protecting against unwanted ads. Presumably, the use of such stickers can be increased if consumers deliberately decide either for or against receiving junk mail. This conjecture of status quo bias was tested in a field experiment run with more than 900 households in Berlin, Germany. In one treatment, stickers were put into mailboxes, facilitating active choice. In a second treatment, stickers were attached halfway onto the outsides of mailboxes, forcing consumers to either remove or fully attach them. It was found that roughly a fifth of the sample attached a sticker after treatment. With uptake of more than 21, as compared to 16%, the forced choice was more effective than the active choice treatment. The findings highlight the importance of green nudges and defaults for promoting pro-environmental behaviour. Implications for landlords of the presented interventions are discussed. The field of social norms is identified as a promising area for extending the scope of the present study.     

Einnahmen- und ausgabenseitige Multiplikatoren der deutschen Volkswirtschaft

Theoretically based on the Haavelmo theorem, this study analyses the economic effects that increasing public expenditure or reducing public income have on the gross domestic product of Germany, with the help of two medium-sized macro-econometric models, the RWI business cycle model and the Econometric Model of the German Economy. The major finding is that most of the public revenue multipliers are considerably lower than most of the public spending multipliers. However, both the dimension and the time course of the effects are a function of the specific kind of politico-economic measures taken by the government.     

Resurrecting Lochner: A Defense of Unprincipled Judicial Activism

Lochner v. New York, 198 U.S. 45 (1905), stands as one of theSupreme Court's most reviled decisions. We challenge the criticalconsensus against Lochner and provide a defense, albeit a contingentdefense, of "unprincipled" judicial activism. To do so, we developa game-theoretic model of judicial–legislative interaction.We use the model to compare outcomes generated in a system oflegislative supremacy to outcomes generated in a system in whichjudicial review is provided by a legally unprincipled, activistjudiciary. We show that judicial review, even when providedby an activist, politicized judiciary, can promote importantconstitutional values and improve legislative quality relativeto a deferential judiciary. In doing so, we identify an important"passive" component to the effect that judicial review has onlegislatures and on legislation. Finally, we demonstrate thatthe addition of other institutions and constraints on judicialbehavior amplify the beneficial effects that judicial reviewprovides to the legislative process.     

Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm

In the last three decades much knowledge has been produced on how best to conduct foresight exercises, but little is known on how foresight should be integrated with the innovation effort of a company. Drawing on empirical evidence from 19 case studies and 107 interviews, we identify three roles that corporate foresight should play to maximize the innovation capacity of a firm: (1) the strategist role, which explores new business fields; (2) the initiator role, which increases the number of innovation concepts and ideas; and (3) the opponent role, which challenges innovation projects to increase the quality of their output.     

Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding

We analyze forecasts of car sales in the U.S. and forecasts of car registrations in Japan. We document a substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, and we show that, based on traditional criteria, forecasts are neither rational nor unbiased. We also report that forecasters anti-herd, that is, forecasters seem to intentionally scatter their forecasts around a consensus forecast. We further show that cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecasts with regard to anti-herding transmits onto cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecast accuracy. Specifically, we document that forecasters who herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who anti-herd.     

Learning to Argue with Intermediate Macro Theory: A Semester-Long Team Writing Project

The authors describe their experience with integrating a semester-long economic analysis project into an intermediate macroeconomic theory course. Students work in teams of “economic advisors” to write a series of nested reports that analyze the current state of the economy, and propose and evaluate policies for a decision-maker. The project simulates real-world policy consulting with an emphasis on applying economic theory and models. The authors describe the project setup and how to tailor its theme to current events, explain methods for keeping it manageable in larger classes, discuss student learning outcomes, and document course evaluation results. Besides improving the learning experience, this project prepares economics students to contribute their own views to policy debates and buttress them with tight macroeconomic reasoning.