Extending the BG/NBD: A simple model of purchases and complaints

Extant customer-base models like the beta geometric/negative binomial distribution (BG/NBD) predict future purchasing based on customers' observed purchase history. We extend the BG/NBD by adding an important non-transactional element that also drives future purchases: complaint history. Our model retains several desirable properties of the BG/NBD: it can be implemented in readily available software, and estimation requires only customer-specific statistics, rather than detailed transaction-sequence data. The likelihood function is closed-form, and managerially relevant metrics are obtained by drawing from beta and gamma densities and transforming these draws to a sample average. Based on more than two years of individual-level data from a major U.S. internet and catalog retailer, our model with complaints outperforms both the original BG/NBD and a modified version. Even though complaints are rare and non-transactional events, they lead to different substantive insights about customer purchasing and drop-out: customers purchase faster but also drop out much faster. Furthermore, there is more heterogeneity in drop-out rates following a purchase than a complaint.     

Older adult pedestrian injuries in the United States: causes and contributing circumstances

As the US population ages, more older adults will face transportation and mobility challenges. This study examines the characteristics and contributing circumstances of nonfatal older adult pedestrian injuries. Data were obtained from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Programme (NEISS-AIP) for the years 2001 through 2006. Cases included persons aged 65 years and older who were nonfatally injured on a public roadway. The results indicated that on average, an estimated 52,482 older adults were treated in emergency departments each year for nonfatal pedestrian injuries. Falling and being hit by a motor vehicle were the leading mechanisms of injury, resulting in 77.5% and 15.0% of older adult pedestrian injuries, respectively. More than 9000 older pedestrian fall-related injuries each year involved a kerb. It is concluded that the growth in the older adult population could add to the overall burden of these nonfatal pedestrian injuries. Making transportation and mobility improvements, including environmental modifications, is important for preventing these injuries.     

A new release of the ASTM CHETAH program for hazard evaluation: Versions for mainframe and personal computer

CHETAH, which stands for the Chemical Thermodynamic and Energy Release Program, was introduced in 1974. Since then, the CHETAH program has been widely used in the chemical industry for hazard evaluation. Although its chief aim is to predict deflagration/detonation potential from molecular structure, it can also be used to estimate heats of reaction, heat capacities, and entropies. One of the limitations of the original program was its rigid, punched card oriented format for data input and the lack of an overall hazard rating derived from the several hazard criteria. A new release of this program alleviates these shortcomings and includes other improvements. The main features of the new release are: 1) a totally interactive front end, 2) an interpreter subroutine which uses sophisticated pattern recognition techniques to combine the four hazard criteria into an overall hazard rating, 3) recognition of certain atomic groupings which are known to be sensitive, 4) correct handling of the symmetry number, and 5) an updated data bank. One of the most important features of this release is its availability in an IBM PC compatible version, making the program accessible to more users.     

An eclectic investigation of tourism multinationals: Evidence from Greece

This paper analyses determinants of profitability differences between subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and domestic enterprises (DMEs) in the tourism industry, using firm-level data. Previous studies focus on the hypothesis that ownership-specific advantages are a major determinant of performance differences. This paper explores performance issues using the eclectic paradigm configuration of tourism multinationals (NACE = 55), operating in Greece and a panel dataset for 95 firms and 10 years. A quantile regression technique is used to estimate the proposed model. Results indicate that, overall, MNEs out-perform their domestic competitors and are generally larger in terms of size. The study reveals, though, that when breaking MNEs into majority and minority owned, the latter perform better, as they make substantial use of local partners. These partners contribute with knowledge of the local market, which is an important aspect for the tourism industry. Finally, the authors discuss the conclusions and managerial implications of the findings.     

Innovation for Inclusive Growth: Towards a Theoretical Framework and a Research Agenda

Inclusive innovation, which we define as innovation that benefits the disenfranchised, is a process as well as a performance outcome. Consideration of inclusive innovation points to inequalities that may arise in the development and commercialization of innovations, and also acknowledges the inequalities that may occur as a result of value creation and capture. We outline opportunities for the development of theory and empirical research around this construct in the fields of entrepreneurship, strategy, and marketing. We aim for a synthesis in views of inclusive innovation and call for future research that deals directly with value creation and the distributional consequences of innovation.     

International trade of GMO-related agricultural products

This paper examines the international trade of a variety of genetically modified (GM) food products over a 27-year period (1984–2011) with data from the United Nations using the tools of social network analysis. The results indicate that each of the different crops have a distinctive pattern of trade that has changed over time due to a number of different factors. Also, trade in agricultural commodities became more diversified over time, dominated less by the United States and other nations central in the trade networks and trade in the individual GM crops was stable over time. Countries maintained their trading partners for specific crops, despite the adoption of the genetically modified varieties. The economic implications of these results are discussed for specific countries.     

Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?

There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.