Boolean comparative analysis of qualitative data

This paper explores the use of Boolean logic in the analysis of qualitative data, especially on the basis of so-called process theories. Process theories treat independent variables as necessary conditions which are binary rather than variable in nature, while the dependent variable is a final cause. In this respect, Boolean comparison appears to be a rigorous method for testing process theories on the basis of qualitative evidence, for example, from case studies. It is argued that Boolean logic may compensate for some of the weaknesses of the conventional approach to process studies — going back to Stuart Mill's (1843) system of logic — by systematically comparing observations without forsaking complexity too much. In addition, Boolean logic systematically structures the kind of interpretive dialogue between theory and evidence typically found in qualitative research. Finally, a procedure for using Boolean analysis is outlined. This procedure involves systematic attempts to falsify and identify hypotheses on the basis of truth tables constructed from qualitative data.     

Operational risk and reputation in the financial industry

By examining stock market reactions to the announcement of operational losses by financial companies, this paper attempts to disentangle operational losses from reputational damage. Our analysis deals with 154 events coming from the FIRST database of OpVantage. Events occurred between 1990 and 2004 in companies belonging to the financial sector and that are listed on the major European and US Stock Exchanges. Results show significant, negative abnormal returns at the announcement date of the loss, along with an increase in the volumes of trade. In cases of internal fraud, the loss in market value is greater that the operational loss amount announced, which is interpreted as a sign of reputational damage. Negative impact is proportionally greater when the loss amount represents a larger share in the company’s net profit.     

Reflections on social forecasting

Social forecasting in its present state is inadequate to deal with the enormous changes taking place in human societies. New concepts of space and time are evolving, and the development of data processing has provided techniques highly suited to technological forecasting. What is also needed for social forecasting, however, is an attitude towards the future which is open-minded, takes account of man in his entirety and stresses that he can play a creative part in decision making by determining the kind of future he wants.     

The impact of prudence on optimal prevention revisited

We re-examine the link between absolute prudence and self-protection activities. We show that the level of effort chosen by an agent with decreasing absolute prudence is larger than the optimal effort chosen by a risk-neutral agent if the degree of absolute prudence is less than a threshold that is utility-independent and empirically verifiable.