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11.
This article reports a study of the differences between ATM cardholders and nonholders in terms of demographic, attitudinal, social, computer-related product experience characteristics. The findings reveal differences between cardholders and nonholders which can be useful in the refinement of banks' marketing strategies for ATM.William R. Swinyard, a visiting faculty member at National University of Singapore when this research was conducted, is a Professor of Business Management at Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah, USA. Leow Ger Ghee is a B.B.A (Honours) graduate of the National University of Singapore. 相似文献
12.
The Vietnamese privatization programme, launched in 1992, differs from the usual Western privatization programmes in terms of the residual percentage of shares owned by the state and the portion of shares owned by insiders. This begs the question whether these differences influence the effects of the programme on firm performance. This study measures the impact of privatization on firm performance in Vietnam by comparing the pre‐ and post‐privatization financial and operating performance of 121 former state‐owned enterprises (SOEs). We find significant increases in profitability, sales revenues, efficiency and employee income. Results of applying the ‘difference‐in‐difference’ (DID) method, wherein a control group of firms is used to pick up the influence of other determinants of firm performance, suggest that the performance improvements may indeed be associated with equitization. Regression analyses reveal that firm size, residual state ownership, corporate governance and stock market listing are key determinants of performance improvements. 相似文献
13.
Summary This article discusses the pitfalls of long-term forecasting. One of the most important is that any model is in fact a subsystem cut from a general societal system. This implies that the distinction between endogenous and exogenous variables is unclear and thus the (sub) model is often unreliable as a tool for forecasting. A second pitfall is that the structure of a model reflects the structure of society. Changing societal structures requires models with changing structures and coefficients. Specific pitfalls are the instability of the functional form of relations, uncertainty about functional forms, variability of parameters. Some attention is paid to the decrease in the risk of wrong forecasts.Professor Pawlowski died, soon after this article was accepted for publication, in Katowice in August 1981.Paper presented at the international Congress of Arts and Sciences of the World University of the World Academy of Art and Science, Harvard, June 1980. 相似文献
14.
Improving GARCH volatility forecasts with regime-switching GARCH 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Franc Klaassen 《Empirical Economics》2002,27(2):363-394
Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. Using data on three major U.S. dollar exchange rates
we show that such forecasts are too high in volatile periods. We argue that this is due to the high persistence of shocks
in GARCH forecasts. To obtain more flexibility regarding volatility persistence, this paper generalizes the GARCH model by
distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels; GARCH effects are allowed within each regime. The resulting Markov
regime-switching GARCH model improves on existing variants, for instance by making multi-period-ahead volatility forecasting
a convenient recursive procedure. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the model resolves the problem with the high single-regime
GARCH forecasts and that it yields significantly better out-of-sample volatility forecasts.
First Version Received: November 2000/Final Version Received: August 2001 相似文献
15.
16.
Simone J. van Zolingen Cees A. Klaassen 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2003,70(4):317-340
The focus of this study is the Delphi method. First, a short history of the Delphi method is given. Then, different types of the Delphi method are described, and the validity and reliability of the Delphi method are discussed. Finally, this study reports on the selection processes and assessments faced when a policy Delphi was conducted into qualification issues in Senior Secondary Vocational Education in the Netherlands. 相似文献
17.
The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis of innovation and diffusion in the European wind power sector.
We derive a simultaneous model of wind power innovation and diffusion, which combines a rational choice model of technological
diffusion and a learning curve model of dynamic cost reductions. These models are estimated using pooled annual time series
data for four European countries (Denmark, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom) over the time period 1986–2000. The empirical
results indicate that reductions in investment costs have been important determinants of increased diffusion of wind power,
and these cost reductions can in turn be explained by learning activities and public R&D support. Feed-in tariffs also play
an important role in the innovation and diffusion processes. The higher is the feed-in price the higher is, ceteris paribus,
the rate of diffusion, and we present some preliminary empirical support for the notion that the impact on diffusion of a
marginal increase in the feed-in tariff will differ depending on the support system used. High feed-in tariffs, though, also
have a negative effect on cost reductions as they induce wind generators to choose high-cost sites and provide fewer incentives
for cost cuts. This illustrates the importance of designing an efficient wind energy support system, which not only promotes
diffusion but also provides continuous incentives for cost-reducing innovations.
相似文献
18.
Bernet?Sekasanvu?KatoEmail author Herbert?Hoijtink Cara?Verdellen Muriel?Hagenaars Agnes?Van?Minnen Ger?Keijsers 《Quality and Quantity》2005,39(6):711-732
The linear mixed-effects model has been widely used for the analysis of continuous longitudinal data. This paper demonstrates
that the linear mixed model can be adapted and used for the analysis of structured repeated measurements. A computational
advantage of the proposed methodology is that there is no extra burden on the analyst since any software for linear mixed-effects
models can be used to fit the proposed models. Two data sets from clinical psychology are used as motivating examples and
to illustrate the methods. 相似文献
19.
Currencies can be under severe pressure, but in a managed exchange rate regime that is not fully visible via the change in the exchange rate. The literature has proposed a way to measure such exchange market pressure (EMP) indirectly, by adding interest rate changes and forex interventions to the exchange rate change. We demonstrate that this measure is not consistent with the definition of EMP and develop a new measure that is consistent. This is first derived within the commonly used monetary exchange rate model. Then we generalize the analysis by avoiding the use of an exchange rate model. We find that the interest rate should not be taken in the first-difference form used so far, but rather in level form and relative to the interest rate chosen if the country had no exchange rate objective. Applications on the European Monetary System and East Asian crises confirm that this improvement is highly relevant in practice. 相似文献
20.
This study describes the result of a research workshop on cultivar choice in which 26 specialized flower producers participated. The workshop consisted of several tasks aimed at measuring the individual quality level of the decision process (cultivar choice). The technique of the information display matrix (IDM) was introduced as a means to simulate the choice processes. The results of this study indicated that the performance in the IDM-simulation had some predictive power for the performance in real life, especially on turnover and yield. Further analysis of the tasks in this workshop could be used to detect weak spots in the individual decision making. The differences among growers with respect to their level of consciousness/awareness, (economic) rationality, and consistency were substantial. 相似文献