The environmental,social and economic effects of recent technological changes in sugarcane on the State of São Paulo,Brazil

From 2007 to 2017, the Agro‐Environmental Protocol of the Sugar and Energy Sector was in force, an agreement between sugarcane mill owners and the State Government of São Paulo, Brazil, proposing to eliminate sugarcane burning as a method to facilitate the harvest. Simultaneously, the sugarcane harvest was becoming widely mechanized while, under the interests of capital accumulation, the mills were entering the information and communication technology era and providing the agricultural processes with more precise and immediate management and technological controls, similar to those implemented in the mills' administrative and industrial operations in the 1990s. Short‐term factors, including environmental factors, favoured sugarcane technological changes. As a result, there was a mass layoff of rural workers and an increasing number of people/workers in agricultural mechanization, transportation and maintenance of machinery and administrative as well. The whole process highlighted the differences between mills, resulting in small and medium sugarcane farmers and mills to become the most impacted, in operational and financial terms, by the accelerating mechanization of the sugarcane industry as a whole.     

Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features

This paper focuses on the provision of consistent forecasts for an aggregate economic indicator, such as a consumer price index and its components. The procedure developed is a disaggregated approach based on single-equation models for the components, which take into account the stable features that some components share, such as a common trend and common serial correlation. Our procedure starts by classifying a large number of components based on restrictions from common features. The result of this classification is a disaggregation map, which may also be useful in applying dynamic factors, defining intermediate aggregates or formulating models with unobserved components. We use the procedure to forecast inflation in the Euro area, the UK and the US. Our forecasts are significantly more accurate than either a direct forecast of the aggregate or various other indirect forecasts.     

The Great Inflation and the Greenbook

Can the story of evolving Federal Reserve beliefs in The Conquest of American Inflation simultaneously explain the Great Inflation and the forecasts published in the Greenbook during that time? If Sargent is correct then evolving beliefs should be reflected not only in policy outcomes but also in Greenbook forecasts. In this paper they are. By conditioning on the Greenbook, it is show that both inflation outcomes and Greenbook forecasts can be rationalised by evolving beliefs. The results improve on recent empirical evidence that has been criticised for relying on unrealistic beliefs that produce forecasts inconsistent with the Greenbook.     

Trust and foreign ownership: Evidence from intra‐European foreign direct investments

We use a novel firm‐level dataset to test whether trust affects the volume and the ownership structure FDI across Europe. Our methodology deals with the endogeneity of trust from the investor to the recipient country. We expect such a trust measure to affect investment decisions, and the associated knowledge capital, differently across types of foreign investors. In particular, this effect is expected to be stronger for industrial investors who possess transferable knowledge capital. The data confirm our predictions. Higher trust increases the number and volume of FDIs, but also the probability of co‐investing with a partner from the recipient country.     

More distance,more remittance? Remitting behavior,travel cost,and the size of the informal channel

The rising number of foreign workers in Italy during the last 15 years has led to a conspicuous increase in the amount of remittances sent abroad. In this paper, we examine the determinants of remittance outflows originated in Italy and transferred abroad through registered financial intermediaries. After controlling for a wide set of socioeconomic regressors, we document a strong positive relation between remittances and the cost of travel between Italy and the migrants' respective home countries. We interpret this result as indirect evidence of unrecorded flows, since the relation between remittances and travel cost should be non‐significant unless geographical proximity permits remitters to switch to informal (non‐observable) transmission mechanisms. Moreover, using data on temporal and monetary costs for a subset of bilateral corridors, we also find remittances to be negatively correlated with high transaction costs and low speed of transfer. We rely on this empirical evidence and on a model of migrants' remitting behavior to present new strategies for estimating the size of the informal outflow.     

Steuerpolitik in finanzkritischen Zeiten

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The efficient side of progressive income taxation

This paper examines allocative properties of progressive income taxation when individuals care about their relative income. It shows that introducing a progressive income tax can yield a Pareto improvement if pre-tax income is evenly distributed. Implementing undistorted choices of working hours requires a progressive tax schedule, and the optimal degree of progressivity decreases with pre-tax income inequality.     

On the optimality of privacy in sequential contracting

This paper studies the exchange of information between two principals who contract sequentially with the same agent, as in the case of a buyer who purchases from multiple sellers. We show that when (a) the upstream principal is not personally interested in the downstream level of trade, (b) the agent's valuations are positively correlated, and (c) preferences in the downstream relationship are separable, then it is optimal for the upstream principal to offer the agent full privacy. On the contrary, when any of these conditions is violated, there exist preferences for which disclosure is strictly optimal, even if the downstream principal does not pay for the information. We also examine the effects of disclosure on welfare and show that it does not necessarily reduce the agent's surplus in the two relationships and in some cases may even yield a Pareto improvement.     

An Integrated Model of the Adoption and Extent of E-Commerce in Firms

This work aims to explain firms’ decisions to adopt Internet-based e-commerce, and the extent to which the adopters subsequently implement e-commerce to commercialize their products and services. We examine various types of factors previously considered by the literature (competitive environment, organizational characteristics, strategic orientation, innovative capacity, managers’ characteristics, IT equipment possessed and the use made of it). The analytical model developed here on the basis of a sample of 2,038 firms suggests that the factors influencing the adoption decision are different from those that eventually influence the results of firms’ commercial operations on the Internet. Likewise, we discuss the contribution of each type of determinant and the implications.