International migration and trade agreements: The new role of PTAs

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and bilateral migration flows. Building on the empirical literature on the determinants of migration flows, I estimate a modified gravity model to assess the role of PTAs and their content on bilateral migration flows. Using a sample of 29 OECD destination countries over the period 1998–2008, I show a strong positive effect of PTAs on bilateral migration flows. I find that the content of PTAs also matters: when visa‐and‐asylum and labour market related provisions are included in PTAs, this further stimulates bilateral migration flows. Different estimation strategies, including instrumental variables, are employed to address the potential endogeneity bias problems related to PTAs and their content.     

Do fiscal decentralization and income inequality affect the size of the shadow economy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries

In this article, we study fiscal decentralization and inequality as driving forces of the shadow economy in advanced economies. Our empirical analysis suggests that a reduction in income inequality will contain the shadow economy, whereas expenditure and tax decentralization do not significantly impact it. As decentralization is generally believed to increase government efficiency, this result is indicative of already highly efficient public administrations. Our results further indicate that redistributive policies positively affect the size of the shadow economy, whereas the tax burden does not have any discernible effect on the shadow economy in our sample.     

Conditionally dependent strategies for multiple-step-ahead prediction in local learning

Computational intelligence approaches to multiple-step-ahead forecasting rely on either iterated one-step-ahead predictors or direct predictors. In both cases the predictions are obtained by means of multi-input single-output modeling techniques. This paper discusses the limitations of single-output approaches when the predictor is expected to return a long series of future values, and presents a multi-output approach to long term prediction. The motivation for this work is that, when predicting multiple steps ahead, the forecasted sequence should preserve the stochastic properties of the training series. However, this may not be the case, for instance in direct approaches where predictions for different horizons are produced independently. We discuss here a multi-output extension of conventional local modeling approaches, and present and compare three distinct criteria for performing conditionally dependent model selection. In order to assess the effectiveness of the different selection strategies, we carry out an extensive experimental session based on the 111 series in the NN5 competition.     

Non‐residents’ Holdings,Market Volatility and Public Debt Sustainability. An Analysis with Data for Italy

Non‐residents’ holdings (NRH) of debt securities have been large in euro area countries, but during the euro area debt crisis some of those countries experienced a steep contraction of such holdings. The analysis aims to provide a data‐founded explanation of what is behind the decrease observed in 2011 by testing two alternative hypotheses. At the same time, we discuss how that decrease might have endangered the sustainability of public debt and study the empirical relevance of the most important of those processes. The topics presented refer to any advanced economy, but we check the hypotheses discussed by taking Italy as a case study because of data constraints. Italy is an interesting country to consider since it is a very large debt issuer. Our results point towards the importance of market volatility to explain variations of NRH, but those holdings do not seem to influence debt sustainability.     

Participation Versus Social Exclusion

The different experience of unemployment and of poverty in the two main Western economic systems (roughly, Europe and the US) demonstrates that a simple economic approach to these problems does not exist. In this paper I deal with the question of the impact of technological change on productive activities, employment and income distribution.The main idea is the following: technological progress may lead to an impoverishment of the disadvantaged people in a free-market society, as a consequence of their inability to adjust their skills to the new requirements of the labour market. By contrast, a just society, grounded on moral principles, recognizes that the distributive criterion has to take into account not only individual contributions to production, but also the relative needs of the individuals. In that context, everyone should be better off after a technological change, since it is fair that everyone gains some advantage from a generalized improvement in the productive conditions of society. A policy that adopts this perspective should provide an effective guard against the danger of social exclusion that strikes modern societies.     

THE WIENER–HOPF TECHNIQUE AND DISCRETELY MONITORED PATH‐DEPENDENT OPTION PRICING

Fusai, Abrahams, and Sgarra (2006) employed the Wiener–Hopf technique to obtain an exact analytic expression for discretely monitored barrier option prices as the solution to the Black–Scholes partial differential equation. The present work reformulates this in the language of random walks and extends it to price a variety of other discretely monitored path‐dependent options. Analytic arguments familiar in the applied mathematics literature are used to obtain fluctuation identities. This includes casting the famous identities of Baxter and Spitzer in a form convenient to price barrier, first‐touch, and hindsight options. Analyzing random walks killed by two absorbing barriers with a modified Wiener–Hopf technique yields a novel formula for double‐barrier option prices. Continuum limits and continuity correction approximations are considered. Numerically, efficient results are obtained by implementing Padé approximation. A Gaussian Black–Scholes framework is used as a simple model to exemplify the techniques, but the analysis applies to Lévy processes generally.     

Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models across Frequencies*

This paper contributes to the econometric literature on structural breaks by proposing a test for parameter stability in vector autoregressive (VAR) models at a particular frequency ω, where ω ∈ [0, π]. When a dynamic model is affected by a structural break, the new tests allow for detecting which frequencies of the data are responsible for parameter instability. If the model is locally stable at the frequencies of interest, the whole sample size can then be exploited despite the presence of a break. The methodology is applied to analyse the productivity slowdown in the US, and the outcome is that local stability concerns only the higher frequencies of data on consumption, investment and output.     

Sectoral border effects and the geographic concentration of production

The object of this paper is to study the relationship between the border effect and the geographic concentration of production. We explain this relationship through the home market effect and test the robustness of this explanation by using an analysis that considers the European single market. A sectoral gravity equation is estimated with different econometric estimators; in particular, we discuss a recently suggested estimator for log-linear CES models. Overall, our findings suggest a steady relationship between the border effect and the concentration of production. Furthermore, the analysis of concentration through a synthetic index provides us with valuable insights into the structure of the European industry.     

Crowdfunding tax incentives in Europe: a comparative analysis

ABSTRACT

Some European countries offer tax incentive schemes to investors and companies in crowdfunding. On one hand, they could be seen as a tool to reduce the system’s dependence on banks and increase the availability of credit for start-ups and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). On the other hand, there is the counterweight of disadvantages that investors may face by investing in crowdfunding (i.e. complex and incomplete laws, and weak protection). This paper is primarily intended as a primer on the use of tax incentives for crowdfunding in Europe. In this study, we first examine the implementation of tax incentive schemes in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, and Belgium. Then, we analyse and compare the characteristics of such schemes along three dimensions: the incentives structure; the business characteristics; and the type of investor. We find that tax incentive schemes for crowdfunding vary widely in their form and other features of their design. Moreover, the most used forms of tax incentives are those that provide for an up-front tax credit on the amount invested in early-stage ventures. These incentives have an immediate effect on the annual income tax of the investor. A central implication is that the more tax incentive schemes are properly designed and tailored for crowdfunders, the more investors, start-ups and other firms with low liquidity could use crowdfunding as a source of funding.     

Characteristics,comorbidities, and use of healthcare resources of patients with phenylketonuria: a population-based study

Abstract

Background: Phenylketonuria is a well-known disease, yet the characteristics of the affected population and their use of healthcare resources have not been comprehensively evaluated. Patient characteristics and use of resources are subjects of interest for most governments, especially for a disease included in newborn screening programs.

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine characteristics and use of healthcare resources of patients with phenylketonuria in the region of Catalonia.

Methods: Records of 289 patients admitted with phenylketonuria between 2007 and 2017 were extracted from the PADRIS database that includes admission data from primary care centers, hospitals (inpatient and outpatient care), extended care facilities, and mental health centers.

Results: The patient population was composed of 140 male patients and 149 female patients, and 102 patients were registered via newborn screening during the study period. Patients were admitted on average 2.19 times per year, mostly into primary care centers which concentrated the largest portion of direct medical expenses. Similar percentages of urgent and scheduled admissions were registered both in primary care and hospitals. Annual direct medical cost of treating patients with phenylketonuria was €667 per patient. Finally, 66.80% of the patients suffered from chronic conditions affecting two or more systems, likely to correspond to a wide variety of conditions.

Conclusions: Altogether, phenylketonuria patient demographics and direct medical costs in Catalonia have been revised. Patients diagnosed with phenylketonuria appeared 1.3-times more likely to suffer from chronic conditions in distinct organ systems, which is expected to have an effect on their use of healthcare resources. These results support the need to adapt and improve the healthcare system, taking multimorbidity into consideration in an effort to control the medical expenses derived.