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51.
    
This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi‐period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial risks obtained using a large database of monthly US data for the period 1972:1–2014:12. Pseudo‐real‐time forecasts are generated from: (a) sets of autoregressive and factor‐augmented vector autoregressions (VARs), and (b) sets of autoregressive and factor‐augmented quantile projections. Our key finding is that forecasts obtained with AR and factor‐augmented VAR forecasts significantly underestimate tail risks, while quantile projections deliver fairly accurate forecasts and reliable early warning signals for tail real and financial risks up to a 1‐year horizon. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
52.
    
This article studies how a government should distribute funds among research institutions and how it should allocate them to basic and applied research. Institutions differ in reputation and efficiency and have an information advantage. The government should award funding for basic research to induce the most productive institutions to carry out more applied research than they would like. Institutions with better reputation a do more research than otherwise identical ones, and applied research is inefficiently concentrated in the most efficient high‐reputation institutions. The article provides theoretical support for a dual‐channel funding mechanism but not for full economic costing.  相似文献   
53.
Corporate governance quality: Trends and real effects   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper constructs a composite index of corporate governance quality, documents its evolution during the 1994–2003 period in selected emerging and developed economies, and assesses its impact on growth and productivity of the economy and its corporate sector. Our investigation yields three main findings. First, corporate governance quality in most countries has overall improved, although in varying degrees and with a few notable exceptions. Second, the data exhibit cross-country convergence in corporate governance quality with countries that score poorly initially catching up with countries with high corporate governance scores. Third, the impact of improvements in corporate governance quality on traditional measures of real economic activity—GDP growth, productivity growth, and the ratio of investment to GDP—is positive, significant and quantitatively relevant, and the growth effect is particularly pronounced for industries that are most dependent on external finance.  相似文献   
54.
In a peri-urban poverty-stricken community in the outskirts of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 15 years of development efforts were undertaken by establishing an enterprise, which initially consisted of a horticultural farm and finally was composed of a multifunctional farm and a restaurant with a shop. The enterprise collaborated with BioEconomy Africa, which was charged with administrative, monitoring and facilitation tasks, and provided a training, demonstration and research facility. In the innovation process, the enterprise selected technologies and implemented them within the context of local economic and market conditions. The project benefitted from a flexible allocation of modest funds. This paper assesses the sustainability of the enterprise and the community on the basis of social–ecological system transformability and resilience. The scheme of the Food and Agriculture Organization is used to evaluate the transformability, while resilience is evaluated through self-organization capacity, disturbance absorption capacity, and learning and adaptability. The project period was divided into five Macro-phases. The transformability assessment of the enterprise revealed nonlinear and asynchronous dynamics of environmental sustainability, economic resilience, social well-being and governance that after reaching a minimum attained a maximum at the end of the period under observation. The resilience assessments showed that the self-organization capacity, the disturbance absorption capacity, and learning and adaptability slowly changed to reach a satisfactory level at the end of the observation period. The changes in transformability and resilience profoundly affected the livelihood of the community. The paper demonstrates the important role of agricultural in the development of poverty-stricken peri-urban communities and indicates that innovation processes and the efficiency of facilitation extension model implementation can be enhanced by applying adaptive project execution procedures. It can be concluded that the continuous monitoring and assessments of transformability and resilience are a prerequisite for efficiently moving the socio-ecological system on a smooth road towards a socially acceptable standard of living.  相似文献   
55.
A key constraint for development of many East African agro-pastoral communities is African animal trypanosomiasis or nagana caused by Trypanosoma spp. and vectored by species of tsetse flies (Glossina spp.). Suppression of trypanosomiasis through trapping of tsetse fly populations was conducted from 1995 to 2005 at and near Luke, Southwest Ethiopia. Odor baited mass trapping technology was used to suppress adult fly populations to very low levels while tryponocidal drugs were used to treat trypanosome infections in cattle. Data on ecological, economic and social variables were collected and analyzed in the context of eco-social dynamics in the community.The bio-economic model of Regev et al. [Regev, U., Gutierrez, A.P., Schreiber, S.J., Zilberman, D., 1998. Biological and Economic Foundations of Renewable Resource Exploitation. Ecological Economics 26, 227-242] and Gutierrez and Regev [Gutierrez, A.P., Regev, U., 2005. The bioeconomics of tritrophic systems: applications to invasive species. Ecological Economics 52, 382-396] was used as a methodological framework for qualitative evaluation of the effects of tsetse/trypanosomiasis suppression on ecological, economic and social aspects. An objective function for single farmers was formulated to determine the optimal harvesting level of cattle, exposed to high and low levels of risk from tsetse/trypanosomiasis, as measured by the discount rate (δ) for a given base level pastoral resource (R = pasture or forage for cattle). The socially optimal objective function for resource exploitation by all farmers is that which maximizes the present value of utility of individuals expending revenues (consumption) from the revenue stream in ways that enhance the quality of life and yet assures the persistence of the resource base over an infinite time horizon (i.e., renewable resource sustainability).The bio-economic model predicts that reducing risk (δ) from tsetse and disease increased the cattle populations and their marginal value. The model also predicts that the interaction of decreased δ and increased productivity (θ) can lead to increased human and cattle populations and hence to over-exploitation of base resources (pastures) that lower environmental carrying capacity and reduced sustainability.Trap catches indicated that tsetse populations were reduced to very low levels, while the disease prevalence decreased from 29% to 10%. This led to a substantial increase in cattle including oxen populations, increased calving rates, increased milk production and increased the per-capita income. The availability of oxen allowed an increase in cultivated land from 12 ha in 1995 to 506 ha in 2005. Revenues (consumption) were invested in the purchase of more cattle and the establishment of a school for educating village children. Increases in land allocated to crops and other sources of income were also found.The bioeconomic model predicts the solution of the trypanosomiasis problems so transforms the East African agro-pastoral communities that new social structures will be required to cope with the ecological, economic and social consequences of this technological changes on sustainable development (sensu [Goodland, R., 1995. The concept of environmental sustainability. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26, 1-24]). This insight should not be lost in international rural development programs.  相似文献   
56.
57.
In this paper, we study the effects of collaterals on business cycles and growth in monetary economies with credit market imperfections. We consider an endogenous growth model with a partial cash-in-advance constraint. It is assumed that the share of consumption purchases paid on credit depends positively on the collaterals available to the agent. In this case, money is no longer superneutral. We find that, under mild inflation rates, a higher money growth rate is welfare-improving and, surprisingly, it makes the occurrence of expectations-driven fluctuations less likely. The shape of credit share in consumption purchases, as outcome of regulatory policies, has an impact on both welfare and stability. In particular, the higher the sensitivity of the credit share to collaterals, the more stable the economy under rational expectations. These analytical findings are complemented by economic interpretations.  相似文献   
58.
Conditions are given for the existence of a pair of continuous real valued functions (u, v) representing an interval order on a topological space (X, ), in the sense that [xy if and only ifu(x)].I am deeply indepted to Professor Alain Chateauneuf for many valuable suggestions.  相似文献   
59.
    
The resort to utility-theoretical issues will permit us to propose a constructive procedure for deriving a homogeneous of degree one continuous function that gives raise to a primitive demand function under suitably mild conditions. This constitutes the first self-contained and elementary proof of a necessary and sufficient condition for an integrability problem to have a solution by continuous (subjective utility) functions.The work of José C. R. Alcantud has been supported by FEDER and Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia under the Research Project SEJ2005-0304/ECON, and by Consejería de Educación (Junta de Castilla y León) under the Research Project SA098A05. Carlos R. Palmero acknowledges financial support by FEDER and Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia under the Research Project SEJ2005-08709/ECON, and by Consejería de Educación (Junta de Castilla y León) under the Research Project VA017B05.  相似文献   
60.
    
Abstract This paper studies the role of the corporate governance system in cooperatives and in investor‐owned enterprises. We abstract from all possible differences between the two systems except the type of majority needed to take decisions: this is one‐head‐one‐vote for cooperatives and proportional to capital invested in investor‐owned firms. We show that the institutional form chosen matters for the initial investment decision of the agents: in particular we find that members of a cooperative invest less than they would in an investor‐owned enterprise.  相似文献   
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