Impact of age on brand awareness sets: a turning point in consumers’ early 60s

Age impacts the brands a consumer knows, i.e., the “awareness set” which critically determines brand consideration and choice. Brands are in between common nouns and proper names but previous psychology research offers contradictory results on the impact of age on knowledge of common nouns versus proper names. Our empirical study on radio stations shows that the direct effect of age on awareness sets is marked by a turning point in consumers’ early 60s, with two contrasted patterns. For long-established brands, age has a direct positive impact up to the turning point but no significant direct impact afterward. For recent brands, there is no direct impact of age before that point but a strongly negative direct impact afterward. Age has also indirect effects through several mediators.     

Estimators of long-memory: Fourier versus wavelets

Semi-parametric estimation methods of the long-memory exponent of a time series have been studied in several papers, some applied, others theoretical, some using Fourier methods, others using a wavelet-based technique. In this paper, we compare the Fourier and wavelet approaches to the local regression method and to the local Whittle method. We provide an overview of these methods, describe what has been done and indicate the available results and the conditions under which they hold. We discuss their relative strengths and weaknesses both from a practical and a theoretical perspective. We also include a simulation-based comparison. The software written to support this work is available on demand and we illustrate its use at the end of the paper.     

The economics of production systems: Segmentation and skill-biased change

In this paper, the concept of production systems is introduced. I assume a standard thick-market externality together with the idea that higher quality goods also require higher skills from workers. Firms face a trade-off between low-quality goods with low skill-requirements for which the potentially abundant labour force generates strong thick-market externalities and higher quality goods with higher skill-requirements. In equilibrium, the economy is partitioned into production systems, i.e., clusters of firms producing the same quality. The distribution of skills determines the boundaries of the production systems, which in turn determine the wages. In this framework an increase in the supply of skilled workers can induce first higher wages for all workers and then higher wages for the skilled but lower wages for the unskilled. This is consistent with the late 20th century evolution of the US labour market.     

Knowledge hierarchies in the labor market

Many workers produce intangible, knowledge-intensive inputs, rather than participating directly in the production process. We develop a model where the labor market organizes itself in a knowledge hierarchy. Skills are segmented into successive clusters. Each cluster buys knowledge from the next one and sells knowledge as a production input to the preceding one. The model is useful to study the impact of improvements in the technology of knowledge transmission on inequality. It is shown that inequality goes up at the top of the income distribution, but not at the bottom.     

An expository note on individual risk without aggregate uncertainty

In economies where agents bear some risk, the analysis would often be facilitated by the assumption that the risks are i.i.d. and disappear in the aggregate. A formal appeal to the law of large numbers requires the consideration of a sequence of finite economies. In an economy with a continuum of agents there are countable families of sets for which it is impossible for a law of large numbers to be valid. With countably many agents and a finitely additive measure, independence is compatible with the law of large numbers.     

Econometric aspects of the variance-bounds tests: a survey

We survey the variance-bounds tests of asset-price volatility,stressing the econometric aspects of these tests. The firstvariance-bounds tests of the present-value relation reportedapparently striking evidence of excess volatility of asset prices.The statistical significance of the results, however, was eithermarginal or, in the case of model-free tests, impossible toassess. Moreover, the tests were soon criticized for a numberof biases. Various other tests of the present-value relationwere later developed, avoiding in different degrees the econometricproblems attending the first-generation tests. The majorityof these second-generation tests also found excess volatility,though sometimes of borderline statistical significance. Thisfinding of excess volatility is robust and is difficult to explainwithin the representative-consumer, frictionless-market model.     

To Trade Or Not To Trade: Economies With A Variable Number Of Tradeables*

We present a general equilibrium model that encompasses the endogenous selection and shadow‐pricing of a set of tradeable commodities, with home‐based and social production activities. In the model, a market system is a set of costly social institutions which embody the trade and production technologies available in the economy. Our equilibrium concept describes the pricing of market institutions, thus pricing the tradeability of a commodity. We obtain the existence and the decentralization of Pareto‐efficient allocations. We discuss an example regarding the transition of a guild‐based economy into a market‐based economy.