The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle

In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price dynamics and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point detection. Focusing on three countries, the US, UK and Spain, we furthermore provide evidence that although potentially informative from an overall perspective in business cycle modelling, the significance of signals contained in house prices may not be symmetric across the identified high growth and low growth states. In addition, we suggest a possible range of values for house price deflation which may trigger a recession the following period.     

Policy consequences of limited cognitive ability

This paper analyses the welfare effects of price restrictions on private contracting in a world where agents have a limited cognitive ability. We deal with that by assuming that people compute the costs and benefits of entering a transaction with an error. We first discuss an example of an auction that will attract the least efficient buyers, because these are those who have made the largest mistake. We then study the case for government intervention when the government knows the distribution of true costs and benefits as well as that of errors. By imposing constraints on transaction prices, the government eliminates some that are on average inefficient - because the price signals that one of the parties has typically grossly overestimated its benefit from participation. This policy may increase aggregate welfare even though some of the transactions being blocked are actually efficient.JEL Classification: D81, J38, K31Gilles Saint-Paul: This paper is based on my Spanish Economic Review lecture at the Spanish Economic Association meeting, Salamanca, December 2002. I am grateful to the organizers for inviting me, and to participants and especially Juan Dolado for their useful comments.     

French unemployment: a transatlantic perspective

The paper compares the French and US labour markets. It shows that differences in unemployment rates are especially acute for young and old workers, but appear to be negligible for middle-aged workers. All French workers, however, experience job flows that are quite distinct from their American counterparts as they are exposed to long spells of infrequent unemployment, which is the opposite to the US case. Critical differences across ages and skills regarding the patterns of exit from and entry into employment are also displayed. The paper dispels the view that these differences originate from the behaviour of the unemployed (or the set of institutions that guide their decisions), and that this is new to the French labour market.     

Does advertising the green benefits of products contribute to sustainable development goals? A quasi‐experimental test of the dilution effect

Using two studies, we examine the dilution effect for green products, by testing whether advertising green benefits decreases their perceived instrumentality and thus harms sustainable development. We use a between‐subject design and ask participants to evaluate the efficacy of a pen (Study 1) and a dish detergent (Study 2) with and without environmental attributes. Our results are inconsistent with the predictions of the dilution model because the perceived instrumentality of both products does not decrease when environmental benefits are added. Our findings are relevant for eco‐labeling given anecdotal evidence suggesting that adding green information can harm the perceived quality of products.     

Is there still a productivity paradox? two methods for a transatlantic comparison

Economic activity accelerated in the United States, in the second part of the cycle, after 1995, within an environment of decreasing inflation. France has followed a qualitatively similar path since 1997, also clearly suggesting the effects of a positive supply shock. The spread of new information and communication technologies (NICT) partly explains these singular events. On one hand, a calculation of contributions to output growth suggests that they would explain about half of the increase in activity in the United States and one-fifth in France. On the other hand, a trend/cycle decomposition reveals that the structural acceleration in output and productivity gains in the United States are very much restricted to industries producing NICT and there is a rather small break in productivity gains. In France, where differences between sectors are not so clear-cut, the diffusion of NICT has been accompanied by a slowdown in trends in productivity gains. In both cases, there is little room left for the effects of the diffusion of technical progress associated with NICT.     

Friedman and Keynes: divergences and convergences *

Milton Friedman claims to have succeeded the Keynesian revolution with a counter-revolution which, incorporating certain features of Keynes's thought, triumphed at the end of the 1960s. This paper presents a general assessment of the relationship between these thinkers, in the domain of politics, methodology and economics, the emphasis being put on Friedman's reading of Keynes. In many places, Friedman stresses the convergences between his vision and Keynes's, as against the latter's Walrasian disciples. However, despite certain points of agreement at the methodological level, the two authors are radically opposed in terms of political vision and economic analysis.     

Semi-core equivalence

Summary. The main requirements for equivalence of the core of an economy and the Walrasian equilibrium allocations are largeness and the freedom to form almost arbitrary coalitions in the Edgeworthian barter processes. We investigate whether constraints on coalition formation and coalitional barter alter these insights. Our notion of the semi-core imposes a restriction on the collection of formable coalitions that does not affect the fundamental equivalence property. Using our concept of the contract-core we show that additional constraints on coalitional barter can only be alleviated within an environment with sufficiently many formable coalitions: besides a contract-core equivalence theorem we show certain non-equivalence results.Received: December 11, 1995; revised version: September 17, 1996This revised version was published online in February 2005 with corrections to the cover date.     

The adjustment mechanism in the Euro Area

This paper analyses the adjustment mechanism in the euro area prior to the crisis. Results show that the real exchange rate adjusted to redress cyclical divergences and that after monetary unification, real exchange rate dynamics became less reactive to country-specific shocks but also less persistent. Regulations affecting price and wage nominal flexibility and employment protection play a role in the adjustment mechanism. Indicators of product and labour regulations appear to matter for both the reaction of price competitiveness to cyclical divergences and for the inertia of competitiveness indicators.     

EMAC Distinguished Marketing Scholar 2012: Respect the data!

Consumer research suffers from a lack of respect for data. Researchers routinely fail to report full experiments that do not produce expected results and often eliminate alleged “outliers” on the basis of inappropriate rules, leading to biased test reports. Scholars appear to be relying less on non-experimental data, even as the serious limitations of experimental data may create structural discrepancies with the other, non-experimental cases of a phenomenon or process, such that it becomes impossible to study some major consumer phenomena. The lessons from empirical data get accepted only when they can be described as confirming preexisting conceptual frameworks. This article presents an extensive analysis of multiple forms of a lack of respect for the data and proposes some remedies. Overall, data should never play a subordinate part.