Emerging issues in sales forecasting and decision support systems

There are two distinct groups of emerging issues in the area of sales forecasting and decision support systems: methodological issues and implementational issues. This paper discusses each of them. The discussion of implementational issues includes some results of a survey of forecasting practice. The paper serves as a preface to the special section on sales forecasting and decision support systems and introduces the papers included in the special section.     

Dynamics of foreign exchange implied volatility and implied correlation surfaces

The prices of currency options expressed in terms of their implied volatilities and the implied correlations between foreign exchange rates at a given point in time depend on option delta and time to maturity. Implied volatilities and implied correlations likewise may thus be represented as a surface. It is well known that these surfaces exhibit both skew/smile features and term structure effects and their shapes fluctuate substantially over time. Using implied volatilities on three currency pairs as well as historical implied correlation values between them, we study the nature of these fluctuations by applying a Karhunen-Loève decomposition that is a generalization of a principal component analysis. We demonstrate that the largest share in the dynamics of these surfaces' fluctuations may be explained by exactly the same three factors, providing evidence of strong interdependences between implied correlation and implied volatility of global currency pairs.     

(Finding) Pathways out of homelessness: An engaged,trans-disciplinary collaborative in the City of Tshwane

ABSTRACT

Street homelessness in the City of Tshwane was brought to public attention in the winter of 2014. This led to a composite research project involving different constituencies, including homeless people, to reflect on ways of addressing street homelessness in the city. This article serves as a conceptual and epistemological introduction to this collaborative research project entitled Pathways Out of Homelessness. The article argues for the use of a broad working definition of street homelessness that allows for complexities of homelessness to emerge, in order to discern diverse and appropriate alternatives.     

Mean and dispersion modelling for policy claims costs

A model for the statistical analysis of the total amount of insurance paid out on a policy is developed and applied. The model simultaneously deals with the number of claims (zero or more) and the amount of each claim. The number of claims is from a Poisson-based discrete distribution. Individual claim sizes are from a continuous right skewed distribution. The resulting distribution of total claim size is a mixed discrete-continuous model, with positive probability of a zero claim. The means and dispersions of the claim frequency and claim size distribution are modeled in terms of risk factors. The model is applied to a car insurance data set.     

Health Belief Model: Evaluating Marketing Promotion in a Public Vaccination Program

National health objectives are driven to increase participation rates. Individual health decisions are determined by attitudes, behavior, lifestyles, and government policies. This research, therefore, examined not just the development and delivery of a message targeting individual voluntary behavior change, but the intention of changes in social structures that will facilitate individuals reaching their potential; thus the purpose of this article is to shed light on the uptake of the human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization using the health belief model (HBM). Research was conducted with the use of focus groups by drawing on the framework of the HBM. This research approach is conceptual by nature, based on the virtue of marketing promotion and on HBM literature. Though offering the vaccine free to the general public provides additional evidence to certain groups on the intention to act or uptake of the vaccine, awareness levels were found to be poor despite increased efforts by the government trying to promote this vaccine. There was evidence that social capital and trust can produce effective communication message strategies that reinforce social bonds. This article provides an interesting basis for further investigation; however, as implausible as it seems the article also contributes to the concept of perceived benefits and of self-efficacy.     

In search of an institutional framework for anticorruption: Lessons from Scandinavia

Scandinavian countries continue to build strong reputations as the world's least corrupt countries. In this case study, in a search for an institutional framework that other countries and policy makers can learn from, we explore sources of high transparency and anticorruption norms in Scandinavia. The most important lesson from this study is that legislative, normative, and cultural institutional pillars must be aligned to achieve the highest level of transparency and anticorruption. We made three main observations. First, adequate and comprehensive legislation in addition to severe noncompliance consequences contribute to an ethical business environment in Scandinavian countries. Second, a willingness to embrace integrity norms and standards through active participation in international conventions and agreements on anticorruption movements contributing to high transparency and integrity management in the Scandinavian countries. Third, a national culture that emphasizes high governmental and civic trust makes bribery and corruption less sustainable. Residents' high level of trust in public officials and police in addition to high civil and media engagement in antibribery cases results in corruption being “starved of oxygen”. The findings suggest high trust levels, enforced regulative legislation, small country size, and high human development help craft a framework that drives a transparent business environment.