The effect of reporting errors on the cross-country relationship between inequality and crime

This paper analyzes reporting errors in crime data to see how they impact econometric estimates, particularly of the key relationship between inequality and crime. Criminal victimization surveys of 140,000 respondents in 37 industrial, transition and developing countries are used. Comparing the crimes experienced by these respondents with those reported to the police, non-random and mean-reverting errors are apparent. Time-varying factors affect the propensity of victims to report crimes to the police, undermining the use of country-specific fixed effects as a means of dealing with measurement error in official crime data. These errors substantially attenuate both cross-sectional and panel estimates of the partial correlation between inequality and crime.     

What drives racial segregation? New evidence using Census microdata

Using restricted Census microdata that link households to the Census block in which they live, this paper re-examines the question of whether racial differences in sociodemographic characteristics can explain observed levels of racial segregation. We develop a simple measurement framework designed to make use of the rich joint distribution of individual and neighborhood characteristics that these data provide, analyzing segregation patterns in the San Francisco Bay Area. The results indicate that racial differences in the collective set of characteristics we consider do have the potential to explain a considerable amount of the observed segregation, although more so for Asians and especially Hispanics than whites and blacks. Different sociodemographic factors emerge as potentially important for each race.     

Premia for correlated default risk

Using data on corporate default experience in the U.S. and market rates of CDX index and tranche swaps of various maturities, we estimate reduced-form models of correlated default timing in the CDX High Yield and Investment Grade portfolios under actual and risk-neutral probabilities. The striking contrast between the estimated processes followed by the actual and risk-neutral arrival intensities of defaults, and between the parameters governing the actual and risk-neutral dynamics of the risk-neutral intensities, indicates the presence of substantial default risk premia in CDX swap market rates. The effects of risk premia on swap rates covary strongly across maturities, and depend on general stock market volatility and several measures of credit spreads. Large moves in the effects of these premia on swap rates have natural interpretations in terms of economic and financial market developments during the sample period, April 2004 to October 2007. Our results suggest that a large portion of the movements in CDX swap market rates observed during the sample period may be caused by changing attitudes toward correlated default risk rather than changes in the economic factors affecting the actual risk of clustered defaults, which ultimately governs swap payoffs.     

Inflation targeting and real exchange rates: A bias correction approach

This paper examines whether inflation targeting (IT) influences purchasing power parity (PPP) by a bias correction approach under cross-sectional dependence. The recursive mean adjustment (RMA) method proposed by So and Shin (1999) and Shin and So (2001) is employed to correct a downward bias in half-life estimates of real exchange rates. More importantly, the empirical results show that IT lowers variability of real exchange rates and plays an important role in providing favorable evidence for long-run PPP.     

A day without a search engine: an experimental study of online and offline searches

With the evolution of the Web and development of web-based search engines, online searching has become a common method for obtaining information. Given this popularity, the question arises as to how much time people save by using search engines for their information needs compared to offline sources, as well as how online searching affects both search experiences and search outcomes. Using a random sample of queries from a major search engine and a sample of reference questions from the Internet Public Library (IPL), we conduct a real-effort experiment to compare online and offline search experiences and outcomes. We find that participants are significantly more likely to find an answer on the Web (100 %), compared to offline searching (between 87 % and 90 %). Restricting our analysis to the set of questions in which participants find answers in both treatments, a Web search takes on average 7 (9) minutes, whereas the corresponding offline search takes 22 (19) minutes for a search-engine (IPL) question. Furthermore, while raters judge library sources to be significantly more trustworthy and authoritative than the corresponding Web sources, they judge Web sources as significantly more relevant. Balancing all factors, we find that the overall source quality is not significantly different between the two treatments for the set of search-engine questions. However, for IPL questions, we find that non-Web sources are judged to have significantly higher overall quality than the corresponding Web sources. In comparison, for factual questions, Web search results are significantly more likely to be correct (66 % vs. 43 %). Lastly, post-search questionnaires reveal that participants find online searching more enjoyable than offline searching.     

PARTISAN ADVOCATES

This paper studies the problem of an uninformed decision maker who acquires expert advice prior to making a decision. I show that it is less costly to hire partisan agents than impartial agents, especially under advocacy, and that the decision maker prefers partisan advocacy to other forms of institutions. I also extend the literature, originating with Dewatripont and Tirole ( 1999 ), to a setting with contracts that condition on information provided and not just the decision made.     

Budget impact model in moderate-to-severe psoriasis vulgaris assessing effects of calcipotriene and betamethasone dipropionate foam on per-patient standard of care costs

Aims: To develop a budget impact model (BIM) for estimating the financial impact of formulary adoption and uptake of calcipotriene and betamethasone dipropionate (C/BD) foam (0.005%/0.064%) on the costs of biologics for treating moderate-to-severe psoriasis vulgaris in a hypothetical US healthcare plan with 1 million members.

Methods: This BIM incorporated epidemiologic data, market uptake assumptions, and drug utilization costs, simulating the treatment mix for patients who are candidates for biologics before (Scenario #1) and after (Scenario #2) the introduction of C/BD foam. Predicted outcomes were expressed in terms of the annual cost of treatment (COT) and the COT per member per month (PMPM).

Results: At year 1, C/BD foam had the lowest per-patient cost ($9,913) necessary to achieve a Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI)-75 response compared with etanercept ($73,773), adalimumab ($92,871), infliximab ($34,048), ustekinumab ($83,975), secukinumab ($113,858), apremilast ($47,960), and ixekizumab ($62,707). Following addition of C/BD foam to the formulary, the annual COT for moderate-to-severe psoriasis would decrease by $36,112,572 (17.91%, from $201,621,219 to $165,508,647). The COT PMPM is expected to decrease by $3.00 (17.86%, from $16.80 to $13.80).

Limitations: Drug costs were based on Medi-Span reference pricing (January 21, 2016); differences in treatment costs for drug administration, laboratory monitoring, or adverse events were not accounted for. Potentially confounding were the definition of “moderate-to-severe” and the heterogeneous efficacy data. The per-patient cost for PASI-75 response at year 1 was estimated from short-term efficacy data for C/BD foam and apremilast only.

Conclusions: The introduction of C/BD foam is expected to decrease the annual COT for moderate-to-severe psoriasis treatable with biologics by $36,112,572 for a hypothetical US healthcare plan with 1 million plan members, and to lower the COT PMPM by $3.00.     

The effect of the car-parazzi system on traffic accidents in Korea

In 2001 and 2002, the Korean government rewarded around $3 to civilians who photograph and report violations of traffic rules. This so-called ‘car-parazzi system’ was such a success with well over 4 million cases reported until its abolition. Our empirical results found that the car-parazzi system was much effective in significantly reducing the death tolls by traffic accidents.     

Soviet Household Saving Function

In this paper, the Soviet household saving function is estimated using reconstructed data from the unpublished archival material: the Soviet family budget survey data. In addition, a shortage indicator is developed to capture both household purchasing power in comparison with the availability of consumer goods in the official market and the spillover of the household demand for consumer goods from the official retail market to the secondary one. A long-run solution of the Soviet household saving function, which includes a shortage indicator as one of the independent variables, is estimated using these data. The reliability of the long-run solution is confirmed by the short-run dynamics of the Soviet household saving function, which satisfy super-exogeneity, parameter constancy, and several diagnostic tests. The highly significant coefficient of the shortage indicator suggests that Soviet household saving behaviour was affected by shortages of consumer goods during 1965–1989. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.