Some Unintended Consequences of Parallel Trade in Pharmaceuticals

It is widely argued that international arbitrage, or parallel trade (PT), in patented drugs may increase consumer surplus in the relevant countries but at the expense of R&D investment. We show how the effects of PT depend on the vertical contract (linear pricing or dual pricing) between the manufacturer and the foreign licensee or distributor and on whether and how drug prices are regulated and reimbursed. We find that, contrary to what policy makers generally predict, we should be more concerned with the impact of PT on aggregate consumer surplus than on R&D investment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linear household technologies

This paper discusses, estimates and formally compares the best known procedures for incorporating demographic variables into complete demand systems. In particular, a class of general procedures belonging to Gorman's family of ‘general linear household technologies’ is introduced. Estimation and comparison of different procedures make use of Italian household budget data for the years 1973–1992, incorporating a single demographic variable (family size) into a Generalized Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. In our empirical example, however, even the most general household technologies are unable to fully capture the behavioural heterogeneity shown by the data. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 1990s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles.     

Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk

We study the profitability of Covered Interest Parity (CIP) arbitrage violations and their relationship with market liquidity and credit risk using a novel and unique dataset of tick-by-tick firm quotes for all financial instruments involved in the arbitrage strategy. The empirical analysis shows that positive CIP arbitrage deviations include a compensation for liquidity and credit risk. Once these risk premia are taken into account, small arbitrage profits only accrue to traders who are able to negotiate low trading costs. The results are robust to stale pricing and the nonsynchronous trading occurring in the markets involved in the arbitrage strategy.     

An Anticompetitive Effect of Eliminating Transport Barriers in Network Markets

This paper examines the welfare effects of physically interconnecting two (network) markets that were previously separated. In each market a different set of capacity-constrained firms operate. Firms engage in a supergame and collude whenever it is rational for them to do so.We find that, under certain parametric restrictions, interconnection of the two markets reduces total welfare. The collusive horizon may extend from a single market to the overall integrated market. In such case, interconnection can be viewed as “exporting” collusion, rather than competition.      

Endogenous market structures and the optimal financial structure

Abstract We characterize the optimal financial structure as a strategic device to optimize the value of a firm competing in a market where entry is endogenous. Debt financing is always optimal under quantity competition, and, contrary to the Brander‐Lewis‐Showalter results based on duopolies, we show the optimality of moderate debt financing also under price competition with cost uncertainty (but not with demand uncertainty). We derive the formulas for the optimal financial structure, which does not affect the strategies of the other firms but reduces their number.     

Endogenous market structures and antitrust policy

I revisit the post-Chicago approach to antitrust issues examining markets whose structure is endogenous. The usual analysis of oligopolies with strategic interactions and an exogenous number of firms is extended to the case of endogenous entry, which determines the degree of market power. The role of predation is evaluated within a generalization of the contestability theory to strategic interactions. Endogenous entry requires a revision of our understanding of the role of incumbents in pricing, producing in the presence of network externalities, bundling products, price discriminating, and delegating to retailers through vertical restraints: when entry is endogenous, leaders adopt aggressive strategies typically without exclusionary purposes and without reducing welfare. Endogenous entry has also implications for the analysis of mergers, that take place only if they create enough cost efficiencies and do not harm consumers, beneficial concentration, technology transfers, and cartels. The spirit of the policy recommendations of the Chicago school is broadly supported by our analysis.     

Measuring ‘indirect’ investments in ICT in OECD countries

ABSTRACT

ICT components, such as microprocessors, may be embodied in other capital goods not recorded as ICT in National Accounts. We name ‘indirect ICT investment’ the value of embodied ICT components in non-ICT investment. The paper provides estimates of ‘indirect ICT investment’ based on detailed and unpublished Supply-Use tables (SUT) in 12 OECD countries: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, Israel, Mexico, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Our main finding is that ICT investment appears significantly higher when considering its indirect component, the average increase being about 35%. The inclusion of indirect ICT investment, excluding software (for which firms’ expenditures are difficult to measure), changes significantly the relative position of countries with respect to the ICT intensity of their investments. The inclusion of software further increases indirect ICT investment but the increase is smaller (in percentage) than without this inclusion. A final result, but concerning only three countries, it that the diagnosis of a stabilisation, or even a decrease, of ICT investment in percentage of GDP or of total investment, observed from the beginning of the century, is not modified if we take into account the indirect ICT investment.