Multiple attractors and global bifurcations in a Kaldor-type business cycle model

We consider a Kaldor-type discrete-time nonlinear business cycle model in income and capital, where investment is assumed to depend both on the difference between normal and current levels of capital stock, and on the difference between the current income and its normal level, through a nonlinear S-shaped increasing function. As usual in Kaldor business cycle models, one or three steady states exist, and the standard analysis of the local stability and bifurcations suggests that endogenous oscillations occur in the presence of only one unstable equilibrium, whereas the coexistence of three equilibria is characterized by bi-stability, the central equilibrium being on the boundary which separates the basins of the two stable ones. However, a deeper analysis of the global dynamic properties of the model in the parameter ranges where three steady states exist, reveals the existence of an attracting limit cycle surrounding the three steady states, leading to a situation of multistability, with a rich and complex dynamic structure.     

The evolution of the world trade web: a weighted-network analysis

This paper employs a weighted network approach to study the empirical properties of the web of trade relationships among world countries, and its evolution over time. We show that most countries are characterized by weak trade links; yet, there exists a group of countries featuring a large number of strong relationships, thus hinting to a core-periphery structure. Also, better-connected countries tend to trade with poorly-connected ones, but are also involved in highly-interconnected trade clusters. Furthermore, rich countries display more intense trade links and are more clustered. Finally, all network properties are remarkably stable across the years and do not depend on the weighting procedure.     

Compulsory Schooling Laws and the Cure for Child Labour

This paper provides an explanation for the existence of child labour which relies on the imperfect enforcement of compulsory schooling laws. In the presence of complementarities in the production of human capital that justify legislative intervention, mandatory measures ensure that coordination failures are solved so that all parents send their children to school and the socially optimal equilibrium is reached. However, if enforcement of legislation is too low, multiple equilibria emerge. In this case, compulsory schooling laws may have adverse welfare effects on all households.     

Entry Decisions and Adverse Selection: An Empirical Analysis of Local Credit Markets

During the last decades there has been a widespread relaxation of legal entry barriers into the banking industry, with potential benefits for financial integration and competition. Obstacles to banks geographical and business expansion have been removed and branching has been substantially liberalized. This paper analyses the determinants of entry decisions into local credit markets using a unique data set before and after deregulation of the Italian banking industry. We estimate an entry model à la Poisson and find evidence that spreads between loan and deposit rates drive entry only for newly chartered banks, but does not affect the decision to open branches of banks operating in other markets. Branching by outside banks is instead positively correlated with business opportunities in the provision of financial services which do not require the acquisition of substantial proprietary information. Both these results are consistent with the hypothesis that in credit markets incumbents have an informational advantage over new entrants.     

Twenty twenty-five

A brief review of the studies that have brought about awareness of the limits of natural resources is followed by an examination of the prospects of population increases and demand for food, water and energy in the North and South of the world. For physical and thermodynamic reasons the production and consumption of increasing quantities of material goods is accompanied by the depletion and deteriorating quality of the resources left for future generations. Only a decrease in the consumption of goods and energy in the North of the world will enable the South to have sufficient natural resources to free itself from poverty and set out on the path leading to human development.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUPERVISION AND PAY: EVIDENCE FROM THE BRITISH NEW EARNINGS SURVEY†

ABSTRACTS This paper looks at the relationship between supervision and pay using British data, that refer to a different institutional context. The analysis is based on information provided by the British New Earnings Survery over the period 1975–1982. The empirical investigation reveals that the relationship between supervision and pay is likely to be affected in a significant way not only by the estimation technique, as stressed by the existing literature, but also by errors in the measurement of the main variables.     

Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets

This paper uses seemingly unrelated probit techniques to separate the transmission of a crisis due to broadly defined macroeconomic interdependence from contagion due to herding, avoiding some of the caveats of the more traditional cross-correlation approach. We find that pure contagion occurred in a limited number of country pairs generally belonging to the same region. A reduction in speculative pressure can also be identified between countries in different regional blocks. This seems to suggest that after an initial crisis episode, investors tend to discriminate on the basis of location and common macroeconomic weakness or perceived similarity.