A Monte Carlo approach to compute the asymptotic standard errors of dynamic multipliers

A Monte Carlo method to compute asymptotic standard errors of dynamic multipliers is proposed. It is applied to Hein's Model I to find standard error of interim multipliers of taxes on nominal income.     

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY? ICT,INTANGIBLE INVESTMENT,AND BRITAIN'S PRODUCTIVITY RECORD REVISITED

Despite the apparent importance of the "knowledge economy," U.K. macroeconomic performance appears unaffected: investment rates are flat, and productivity has slowed. We investigate whether measurement issues might account for this puzzle. The standard National Accounts treatment of most spending on "knowledge" or "intangible" assets is as intermediate consumption. Thus they do not count as either GDP or investment. We ask how treating such spending as investment affects some key macro variables, namely, market sector gross value added (MGVA), business investment, capital and labor shares, growth in labor and total factor productivity (TFP), and capital deepening. We find: (a) MGVA was understated by about 6 percent in 1970 and 13 percent in 2004; (b) instead of the business investment/MGVA ratio falling since 1970 it has been rising; (c) instead of the labor share being flat since 1970 it has been falling; (d) growth in labor productivity and capital deepening has been understated and growth in TFP overstated; and (e) TFP growth has not slowed since 1990 but has been accelerating.     

Commentary: The corporate structure of financial conglomerates

Commentary: The corporate structure of financial conglomerates     

Dini derivatives in optimization — Part III

This note is a sequel to the analysis of the main properties and applications of Dini derivatives, discussed by the authors in their previous papers [10,11].In particular we show how the generalized convexity of nonsmooth maps could be characterized by the generalized monotonicity of the Dini derivatives.

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Sommario Questa nota è la continuazione di due precedenti lavori degli stessi autori, publicati sulla Rivista di Matematica per le Scienze Economiche e Sociali e riguardanti le principali proprietà ed applicazioni nella teoria dell'ottimizzazione delle derivate direzionali (o numeri derivati) di Dini. Nel presente lavoro tale strumento matematico viene utilizzato al fine di estendere al caso non differenziabile i vari concetti di convessità generalizzata e di monotonia generalizzata proposti soprattutto da Karamardian e Schaible per il caso di funzioni differenziabili.

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Research supported by M.U.R.S.T. and CARIPLO.

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Partially supported by Hungarian National Research Fund (Grant # T 013967).     

The effect of computer use on earnings in Italy

This paper studies the effect of computer use on earnings among a cohort of recent Italian high school graduates. The IV and Heckman techniques are used in order to control for endogeneity of computer use. Results show that the wage premium associated with computer use disappears once selection into computer use is accounted for. On the other hand, using the computer to perform a number of specific tasks leads to higher earnings. It is therefore suggested that not all individuals who use a computer at work receive a wage premium, but only those possessing complementary computer skills such as communication, networking and problem solving abilities.      

Optimal switch from a fossil-fueled to an electric vehicle

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this paper we propose and solve a real options model for the optimal adoption of an electric vehicle. A policymaker promotes the abeyance of fossil-fueled...     

The microfoundations of business cycles: an evolutionary, multi-agent model

This work presents an evolutionary model of output and investment dynamics yielding endogenous business cycles. The model describes an economy composed of firms and consumers/workers. Firms belong to two industries. The first one performs R&D and produces heterogeneous machine tools. Firms in the second industry invest in new machines and produce a homogenous consumption good. Consumers sell their labor and fully consume their income. In line with the empirical literature on investment patterns, we assume that firms’ investment decisions are lumpy and constrained by their financial structure. Simulation results show that the model is able to deliver self-sustaining patterns of growth characterized by the presence of endogenous business cycles. The model can also replicate the most important stylized facts concerning micro- and macro-economic dynamics.     

Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy

Monetary policy and the private sector behaviour of the U.S. economy are modelled as a time varying structural vector autoregression, where the sources of time variation are both the coefficients and the variance covariance matrix of the innovations. The paper develops a new, simple modelling strategy for the law of motion of the variance covariance matrix and proposes an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the model likelihood/posterior numerical evaluation. The main empirical conclusions are: (1) both systematic and non-systematic monetary policy have changed during the last 40 years|in particular, systematic responses of the interest rate to inflation and unemployment exhibit a trend toward a more aggressive behaviour, despite remarkable oscillations; (2) this has had a negligible effect on the rest of the economy. The role played by exogenous non-policy shocks seems more important than interest rate policy in explaining the high inflation and unemployment episodes in recent U.S. economic history.