Is a Conservative Central Banker a (Perfect) Substitute for Wage Coordination?

In a monetary union, macroeconomic policies are strongly associated with externalities that imply the need for coordination. However, if coordination is not complete, it might be unable to cope with the externalities. This paper investigates different solutions for internalizing policy externalities. In particular, we compare wage coordination to the conservative central banker solution, which the recent literature has found able to impose wage moderation on labor unions. We also discuss some issues related to labor flexibility reforms as a solution for the unemployment problem.     

Regulating Public Transit Networks: How do Urban‐Intercity Diversification and Speed‐up Measures Affect Firms’ Cost Performance?

Abstract Empirical studies on the cost structure of Public Transit Networks are mainly based on specialized firms providing urban or intercity services. In this study we estimate a translogarithmic variable cost function to assess the behaviour of returns to scale and the impact of network characteristics. The analysis is based on a sample of 45 Italian municipal companies observed from 1996 to 1998 and including both specialized and mixed transit operators. Results confirm previous evidence on the existence of natural monopoly in the industry and support a regulation introducing competitive tenders to access to the market. In addition, we provide insights about the advantages associated with urban‐intercity diversification and with the improvement of network commercial speed. Cost benefits can then be achieved by promoting mergers between neighbouring firms, so as to create new companies operating on integrated local networks and supplying in combination urban and intercity public transport. Implications of such a strategy for the design of tender mechanisms are also underlined, together with the need for a regulatory policy which takes more care of speed‐up measures.     

Expected Future Budget Deficits,the Real Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics in a Finite Horizon Model

This paper uses an optimizing open economy general-equilibrium model to investigate the macroeconomic effects of current and expected future budget deficits. It is shown that current and expected future budget deficits are positively correlated with the current account deficit, the capital stock and the real exchange rate, but negatively correlated with the domestic real interest rate and consumption, along the stable path approaching the steady state. The paper also demonstrates that the world real interest rate is positively correlated with consumption, foreign assets and the domestic real interest rate, but negatively correlated with the capital stock and the real exchange rate. Received April 11, 2001; revised version received October 25, 2001     

Author Index Volume 38 (2004)

Author Index

Author Index Volume 38 (2004)     

Are Euro Area Small Cap Stocks an Asset Class? Evidence from Mean‐Variance Spanning Tests

In this paper we perform regression‐based tests for mean‐variance spanning in order to detect the effect of investing in euro area small capitalisation stocks on the minimum variance frontier, and apply different measures to assess the extent of diversification gains. Empirical analysis shows that euro area small and mid cap stocks, as classified by size quartile and quintile rankings, arise as truly autonomous asset classes. This result is robust to different methodologies used to form size‐based portfolios, and holds relative to both euro area large cap stocks and other international asset classes, US small capitalisation stocks included.     

Does Social Capital Reduce Moral Hazard? A Network Model for Non‐Life Insurance Demand*

We study the effect of social capital in an environment in which formal, marketed insurance contracts coexist with informal agreements. We show that in the absence of peer monitoring and social pressure, non‐marketed contracts crowd out formal ones due to moral hazard. We prove, by means of an equilibrium concept typical of the network literature, that social capital can reduce moral hazard in informal agreements. We then show that under certain conditions, social capital increases the demand for marketed insurance contracts. The theoretical model we outline provides us clear guidance to measure social capital in a provincial‐level data set. The empirical model, which is estimated controlling for panel and spatial structure, supports our claim that social capital increases the demand for non‐life insurance.     

What do firms know? What do they produce? A new look at the relationship between patenting profiles and patterns of product diversification

In this work, we analyze the relationship between the patterns of firm diversification, if any, across product lines and across bodies of innovative knowledge, proxied by the patent classes where the firm is present. Putting it more emphatically, we investigate the relationship between “what a firm does” and “what a firm knows.” Using a newly developed dataset matching information on patents and products at the firm level, we provide evidence concerning firms’ technological and product scope, their relationships, the size-scaling and coherence properties of diversification itself. Our analysis shows that typically firms are much more diversified in terms of products than in terms of technologies, with their main products more related to the exploitation of their innovative knowledge. The scaling properties show that the number of products and technologies increases log-linearly with firm size. And the directions of diversification themselves display coherence between neighboring activities also at relatively high degrees of diversification. These findings are well in tune with a capability-based theory of the firm.     

Reconsidering the role of money for output, prices and interest rates

New Keynesian models of monetary policy downplay the role of monetary aggregates, in the sense that the level of output, prices, and interest rates can be determined without knowledge of the quantity of money. This paper evaluates the empirical validity of this prediction by studying the effects of shocks to monetary aggregates using a vector autoregression (VAR). Shocks to monetary aggregates are identified by the restrictions suggested by New Keynesian monetary models. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, shocks to broad monetary aggregates have substantial and persistent effects on output, prices and interest rates.