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401.
Managing Electricity Risk 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper we propose an algorithm for pricing derivatives written about electricity in an incomplete market setting. A discrete time model for price dynamics which embodies the main features of electricity price revealed by simple time series analysis is considered. We use, jointly, Binomial and Monte Carlo methods for pricing under a risk–neutral measure of which we prove the existence. 相似文献
402.
403.
Abstract. An understanding of the nature of demand is critical for the formulation of a tourism development program. It is also important for developed countries where tourism is an important source of export. Thus, the aim of this paper is two-fold. First, it attempts to estimate an equation of the demand for tourism in order to analyse the different variables that influence the number of nights spent in a given destination. Second, by breaking up the total number of nights according to country of origin, it studies the reaction of tourists to given economic variables according to their origin. 相似文献
404.
Giovanni Facchini 《Journal of economic surveys》2004,18(1):1-32
Abstract. Free trade in goods and factors is efficient. When we move away from economic theory and consider the policies actually followed by governments, we observe distortions being implemented both on goods and factors trades. It is natural then to question the relative merits of the two types of intervention, and the normative literature has provided only partial answers. We ask then why is the international flow of goods and factors not free, and the political economy literature has looked at the two issues only separately. In studying the determination of trade policy, a theoretical paradigm has emerged, focusing on the role of influence driven contributions. This approach has also found strong empirical support. The literature on the political economy of factor mobility, on the other hand, is fragmented. Distortions in labor and capital flows are typically the subject of different studies, and only recently a unified framework has been proposed. More work has to be done in this area as well as in integrating the political economy of trade and factor movements. 相似文献
405.
We investigate a methodology to set up consistent scenarios for stress testing analysis in financial risk control and management. The method, based on the Black and Litterman bayesian approach to portfolio optimization, enables to mix historic and implied or private information, accounting for the co-movement among the markets. By tuning the mean values chosen for the scenarios and the degree of precision attached to them we are able to devise a whole range of mean loss and maximum probable loss, or Value-at-Risk measures. In particular, by setting a very precise scenario the mean and maximum probable loss converge toward similar values, while for very imprecise scenarios the mean loss figure is found to converge to zero, and the maximum probable loss collapses to the standard Value-at-Risk figure computed using historical information. As for options, we show that tuning the precision of the scenarios allows for the effects of changes in volatility on the option value, under each different scenarios. Finally, for more complex positions, such as those involving credit risk exposures, or more generally exposures to different markets, we suggest a tree methodology to report the scenarios and to pinpoint the key sources of risk. 相似文献
406.
While the theory examining the relationship between uncertainty and investment has suggested new research avenues, it has not had strong predictive power. Nevertheless, at the policy level the benefits for investment of a more stable economic climate are being emphasised. These considerations point to the need for empirical work. Accordingly, this paper draws on industry level panel data, obtained by marrying the UK Census of Production with the CBI Industrial Trends Survey, and applies dynamic panel data methods to distinguish between macro and micro sources of uncertainty and to consider the role of financial factors. It is found that both sources of uncertainty exert a considerable negative impact on investment, while financial factors may be important in some industries. 相似文献
407.
408.
Giorgia Callegaro Giovanni B. Di Masi Wolfgang J. Runggaldier 《Asia-Pacific Financial Markets》2006,13(4):373-394
We consider the problem of maximization of expected utility from terminal wealth for log and power utility functions in a
market model that leads to purely discontinuous processes. We study this problem as a stochastic control problem both under
complete as well as incomplete information. Our contribution consists in showing that the optimal strategy can be obtained
by solving a system of equations that in some cases is linear and that a certainty equivalence property holds not only for
log-utility but also for a power utility function. For the case of a power utility under incomplete information we also present
an independent direct approach based on a Zakai-type equation.
相似文献
409.
An introduction to evolutionary theories in economics 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
This paper presents the basic ideas and methodologies of a set of contemporary contributions which are grouped under the general heading of evolutionary economics. Some achievements-especially with regard to the analysis of technological change and economic dynamics-are illustrated, some unresolved issues are discussed and a few promising topics of research are flagged.This article draws on a chapter prepared for the book Market and Organization: The Competitive Firm and its Environment, edited within an EEC/Tempus Programme by LATAPSES, Nice, France, and Iside, Rome. 相似文献
410.
This paper theoretically and experimentally explores a fixed price mechanism in which, if aggregate demand exceeds supply,
bidders are proportionally rationed. If demand is uncertain, in equilibrium bidders overstate their true demand in order to
alleviate the effects of being rationed. This effect is the more intense the lower the price, and bids reach their upper limit
for sufficiently low prices. In the experiment we observe a significant proportion of equilibrium play. However, subjects
tend to overbid the equilibrium strategy when prices are high and underbid when prices are low. We explain the experimental
evidence by a simple model in which the probability of a deviation is decreasing in the expected loss associated with it.
Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献