Finance, governments, and trade

We study how financial transactions may respond to exogenous variation in trade opportunities not only directly, but also through policy channels. In more open economies, governments may find it more difficult to fund and enforce public policies that substitute private financial transactions, and more appealing to deregulate financial markets. We propose a simple theoretical model of such policy-mediated relationships between trade and financial development. Empirically, we document in a country panel dataset that, before the 2007–2008 crisis, financial market volumes were robustly and negatively related to the share of government consumption in GDP in regressions that also include indicators of financial regulation and trade openness, and we seek support for a causal interpretation of this result in instrumental variable specifications.     

Modelling the impact of alternative pricing policies on an urban multimodal traffic corridor

This paper investigates the effects of alternative or joint schemes of road pricing and parking pricing to verify if private behaviour in operating parking facilities, road tolling and transit systems can lead to profitable results in the private sector and for public welfare. The evaluation is carried out using an idealised urban multimodal traffic corridor with some numerical examples that show the effects of different pricing policies. A Deterministic User Equilibrium assignment procedure is used to calculate certain performance indicators such as user travel costs, social costs and private profit. The results show that the system is highly sensitive to pricing policy and that a proper joint pricing of park-and-ride facilities, city centre parking and road tolls can be developed to simultaneously attain good private and social benefits.     

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

The ECB target is set in terms of the year on year growth rate of the euro area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area wide information, allow us to answer two related questions. The first is whether country specific data actually bear any relevance for the future path of area wide price growth, over and above that already contained in area wide data. The second is whether to track ECB monetary policy decisions it is useful to take into account national information and not only area wide statistics. Within our empirical framework we find that once area wide information is properly taken into account the contribution of national idiosyncratic developments is negligible.     

Does trade credit redistribution thwart monetary policy? Evidence from Italy

Italy is an ideal candidate for testing the credit view of the transmission mechanism because of a bank-centred financial structure, a sizeable trade debt, and an economy titled towards small firms. An empirical analysis of trade credit and debt on averaged panel data shows that small firms act as financially constrained and cycle-sensitive, whereas large ones aim at smoothing sales, adopt an integrated management of inventories and receivables and have a higher trade debt to purchases elasticity. On balance, the net trade credit channel does not, as implied by the credit view, shield small firms from a monetary squeeze.     

A dynamic model of R&D competition

This study considers a dynamic model of R&D competition in a situation of no uncertainty with identical firms in a perfect foresight. We are going to find out about the effects of firms' absorptive capacity on R&D strategies in the presence of technological spillovers. The conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a feedback–Nash equilibrium on firms' R&D expense will be also discussed. Numerical simulations will show as the introduction of the absorptive capacity reduces the impact of spillovers degree on firms' R&D strategies.     

Growth and social capital: an evolutionary model

In this paper, we analyze the role of cooperation between firms through a model of growth and social capital. In a growth model à la Solow we incorporate the set of resources that a relational network has at its disposals, as a distinct production factor, and thus examine its dissemination through evolutionary type processes in firm interactions. Dynamic analysis of the model demonstrates that cooperation is able to increase the productivity of factors, fostering a higher rate of growth in the long term. The most significant result is that scarcity of social capital can produce a general collapse of the economic system in areas in which long term growth is usually sustained by the learning by doing and spillover of knowledge phenomena. This conclusion leads to reconsider the role of local development economic policies that should concentrate on activities that promote repeated interaction between firms proven to be cooperative or that encourage the formation of technological consortia.     

Morale hazard

We interpret workers’ confidence in their own skills as their morale, and investigate the implication of worker overconfidence on the firm's optimal wage-setting policies. In our model, wage contracts both provide incentives and affect worker morale, by revealing private information of the firm about worker skills. We provide conditions for the non-differentiation wage policy to be profit-maximizing. In numerical examples, worker overconfidence is a necessary condition for the firm to prefer no wage differentiation, so as to preserve some workers’ morale; the non-differentiation wage policy itself breeds more worker overconfidence; finally, wage compression is more likely when aggregate productivity is low.