Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models

The aim of this paper is to analyze the performance of alternative forecasting methods to predict the index of industrial production in Italy from 1 to 3 months ahead. We use twelve different models, from simple ARIMA to dynamic factor models exploiting the timely information of up to 110 short-term indicators, both qualitative and quantitative. This allows to assess the relevance for the forecasting practice of alternative combinations of types of data (real-time and latest available), estimation methods and periods. Out-of-sample predictive ability tests stress the relevance of more indicators in disaggregate models over sample periods covering a complete business cycle (about 7 years in Italy). Our findings downgrade the emphasis on both the estimation method and data revision issues. In line with the classical “average puzzle”, the use of simple averages of alternative forecasts often improves the predictive ability of their single components, mainly over short horizons. Finally, selected indicators and factor-based models always perform significantly better than ARIMA models, suggesting that the short-run indicator signal always dominates the noise component. On this regard, selected indicators models can further increase the amount of signal extracted to improve up to 30–40% the short-run predictive ability of factor-based models and to forecast-encompass them.     

Partnership,reciprocity and team design

This paper studies the effect of intention-based reciprocity preferences on the free-riding problem arising in partnerships. Our results suggest a tendency of efficient partnerships to consist of members whose sensitivity to reciprocity is – individually or jointly – sufficiently high. Sufficient conditions for the implementation of the efficient strategy profile require a reciprocity-based sharing rule so that each partner gets a fraction of the output, which is a percentage of his own sensitivity to reciprocity with respect to the overall sensitivity in the team. Finally, we introduce the concept of psychological strong Nash equilibrium and show that it allows for the unique and collusion-proof implementation of the efficient strategy profile.     

Assessing excess liquidity in the euro area: the role of sectoral distribution of money

The strong and prolonged deviation of money growth from its reference value since 2001 has caused concern among policy-makers about the upside risks to price stability from monetary developments. In this article we provide evidence that these risks might have been smaller until 2005 than regularly assumed. Three basic findings support this view. First, a sectoral breakdown of money holdings shows that current excess liquidity conditions have been partly related to the acceleration of nonbank financial intermediaries’ money demand, as well as to the accumulation of marketable instruments. Such increases are likely to be associated more to portfolio choices than to transaction motives. Second, evidence from balance sheet data on investment funds points to a general increase in the relative importance of this sector in the economy, rather than to a higher degree of liquidity of their asset positions, thus reflecting, to a large extent, a permanent change in the financial structure of the economy. Third, excess liquidity measures that exclude nonbank financial intermediaries’ money holdings have more predictive power for future inflation at medium-term horizons than those that include them.     

Obsolescence risk in advanced technologies for retailing: A management perspective

In recent years, a great deal of research focused on the introduction of advanced technologies for making traditional stores more appealing and attractive, with several benefits for the retail process. Since the introduction of these innovative systems involves several risks that can have a negative impact on business profitability, this paper aims at investigating to what extent it is possible to reduce these risks by proposing an explorative framework for a successful risk management strategies in retail context. Key results of this research concern the importance of the risk management also for retail sector, with emphasis on the introduction/adoption decision of innovative technologies in the points of sale, with consequences for retail-oriented industries. To achieve this task, the current study synthesizes findings from several fields such as management, marketing, and computer science.     

When Consumers and Products Come From the Same Place: Preferences and WTP for Geographical Indication Differ Across Regional Identity Groups

ABSTRACT

This article contributes to the existing literature on geographical indications by observing consumers’ stated preference for extra-virgin olive oil in two groups differing in their regional identity. In particular, consumers from two groups were asked to rank products in a contingent ranking survey. One group (“insiders,” Sicilian consumers) shared origin with a good product (Sicilian oil); the other group (“outsiders,” Rome and Milan) presented “no association” consumer-product. Results indicate that insiders are willing to pay more for goods originating from the region they identify with compared with a region associated with outsiders. Identity seems to give a bias by which a local product is not necessarily perceived as superior in absolute terms, but in relative terms: outside products are never considered better than inside options but are either inferior or equal in perceived value.     

An investment-function-based measure of capacity utilisation.: Potential output and utilised capacity in the Bank of Italy's quarterly model

Measures of potential output and the output gap are increasingly being developed and used to concisely quantify and monitor the risk of price accelerations stemming from rises in aggregate demand that are not met by a corresponding increase in supply. They often play a prominent role in the price determination mechanisms of macroeconometric models. In this paper we build a measure of potential private-sector value added for the Italian economy that is consistent with the capital accumulation process in the Banca d'Italia's Quarterly Model — and more generally with the rest of the supply-side block of that model. More specifically, we exploit the fact that the investment function can be thought of as a relationship transforming desired gross additions to capacity output into capital accumulation by means of a conversion factor (the optimal capital/output ratio). Thus, if one removes the component of investment decisions that stems from changes in the relative price of the production factors, (i.e. in the optimal capital/output ratio), then a measure of the desired gross addition to capacity may be constructed. The results draw a cyclical picture of the degree of capacity utilisation for the period 1970–1997 that is roughly in line with those produced by the Wharton and Hodrick–Prescott filter approaches, as well as with the pictures resulting from the ISAE, IMF, European Commission and OECD measures of the output gap. Our investment-function-based measure appears to be a promising indicator of the pressure exerted on prices by demand accelerations. Its empirical properties are, on the whole, acceptable and plausible.     

Glocalization of accounting standards: Observations on neo-institutionalism of IPSAS

This paper defines and then observes processes of glocalization surrounding the adoption of International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) for public sector financial reporting. Glocalization can be best understood using sociological institutionalism, because this theory focuses on the retention of identity, and processes of legitimacy, during adaptation (diffusion) of standards. The paper discusses the history of standard-setting for the public sector in New Zealand to explain why this theory has value.

IMPACT

This paper defines and describes the utility of the concept of glocalization in analysing the implementation of IPSAS, with a New Zealand focus. The value of the paper is in its combination of a jurisdiction-specific experience with an understanding of the broader issues of ‘global versus local’ and processes of sociological institutionalism. Such studies of IPSAS adoption can offer distinctive perspectives on global processes of isomorphism within neo-institutional theory. This paper explains the advantages of flexible strategies to standard-setters.     

The relationships between CEO characteristics and strategic risk-taking in family firms

Abstract

We examine the influences of chief executive officer (CEO) personal characteristics on family firms’ strategic risk-taking. Building on upper echelons theory, we investigate the influences of CEO family relationships, the CEO professional education, other career experiences, tenure, and career horizon have on the risk level a company takes. By analyzing a sample of 107 Italian family firms listed on the Milan Stock Exchange, we find that company’s risk-taking significantly and negatively relates to CEO family relationship and professional education, but positively to CEO career horizon. This provides support to the argument that such CEO personal characteristics are key factors in explaining differences in risk-taking among family firms. Further, our analysis of control variables shows that family firms’ risk-taking relates positively to board size and negatively to company size. These results suggest that company and board characteristics also significantly influence the risk levels taken by a company.     

The supply of education quality in a spatial model with asymmetric moving costs

The paper analyses the characteristics of the supply of higher education in different geographical macroareas using a strategic interaction framework. It focuses on universities operating in centralised funding system that autonomously set the quality of education showing that in equilibrium it is inversely related to students’ moving costs across areas. We show that in the presence of asymmetric information about workers’ ability and asymmetric costs of moving, the only PBE consistent with forward induction involves that only high ability workers acquire education and the quality of education is lower in macroareas where the moving costs are higher. Our model predicts that in economies with centralised university funding, educational policies must be regulated according to the specific socioeconomic characteristics of the area. Direct subsidies to universities may be ineffective in improving the quality of education in the less developed areas. When regional disparities are not too big, efficiency gains may be obtained by reducing moving costs.