Changing science and ensuring our future

Science is not static but dynamic. A key challenge in its development is the reflection and accommodation of weaknesses, rather than just inherent strengths, both in its practices and institutional structures and settings. Pivotal to this are a range of issues including uncertainty, contextual issues, broader societal involvement, interdisciplinarity, and the enablement of reflexivity. These are not unrelated, autonomous concerns but intrinsically interdependent ones. For example extended characterisation and representation of uncertainty can facilitate integration between what have been regarded as separate: the technical and the contextual. This will require reflexive practices, often involving dialogue between scientists and the broader community. Much of this correlates with recent developments in social theory, such as conceptions of the risk society, and has significant implications for the relationship between the natural and the social sciences. This paper will identify, examine and describe these emergent changes to science and discuss their broader implications.     

湖北省赤壁市农地流转市场中的政府行为

基于赤壁市实地调研,总结农地流转的基本情况,发现在农地流转市场中政府缺位以及越位,政府定位不明使农地流转市场的建立障碍重重。经分析,相关法律缺失、农地产权关系不明晰、市场与政府之间关系不清、中央和地方委托代理关系中目标不一致是政府行为失范的原因。提出政府应转变为服务型政府并做好农地流转市场服务工作,建立农地流转市场价格体系并加强对农地流转市场交易价格的管理,适当借鉴城镇土地市场建设和城镇土地有偿使用制度改革的经验并努力培育农地流转市场。     

宁波市民营企业产权结构分析

本文以浙江省宁波市296家民营企业的调查数据为依据,用多个计量模型来检验家族企业中产权结构和企业绩效之间的关系。我们发现,企业绩效与管理层及最大股东的股份额密切相关,却与包括单个最大股东和其家庭成员在内的家庭股份份额无显著相关性。本文结果说明,即使是在市场机制尚不成熟的环境下,内生产权理论的结论也基本适用。但家庭股份份额却对企业绩效没有显著影响这一结果说明,需要对家族企业的产权结构的变化做进一步的研究。     

The Effects of Foreign Trade Liberalisation and Financial Flows between Slovenia and the EU after Accession

The new version of the CGE model of the Slovenian economy based on the 1998 SAM was used for simulations of the consequences of further foreign trade liberalisation after 1998 as the outcome of implementation of Free Trade Agreements and the European Agreement, adaptation of the Customs Tariff to the for manufacturing products, adoption of the EU Common External Tariff after the accession of Slovenia to the EU, and estimated transfers between the two budgets. Results obtained show a positive net outcome of Slovenian accession to the EU in the long run. On the other hand, rational behaviour by the government will certainly moderate possible short-run negative effects and improve favourable long-run effects.     

民营快递企业营销组合策略分析

首先分析了民营快递企业市场环境,对比了民营快递行业、中国邮政快递、以国际快递巨头为代表的外资及合资企业这三个主体的竞争优势和劣势.在此基础上从产品、价格、促销和渠道等四个方面提出了适合民营快递企业发展的营销组合策略.     

Survivorship bias in performance studies

Recent evidence suggests that past mutual fund performance predictsfuture performance. We analyze the relationship between volatilityand returns in a sample that is truncated by survivorship andshow that this relationship gives rise to the appearance ofpredictability. We present some numerical examples to show thatthis effect can be strong enough to account for the strengthof the evidence favoring return predictability.     

Optimal Growth Strategy under Dynamic Threshold

We consider an economy in which the technology exhibits nonconvexities due to fixed costs associated with production. Taking into account the incentives for investment to decrease fixed costs, we characterize the circumstances under which an underdeveloped economy can catch up with the developing ones. We show that it is optimal to get rid of the fixed costs inherent in production in finite time provided that the initial level of fixed costs are not too high and the technology for reducing fixed costs is sufficiently efficient. Indeed, we obtain that even though the income disparities may be very persistent and can be perceived as poverty traps, economies with not very high initial fixed costs and sufficiently efficient technology for reducing fixed costs would ultimately converge to the same steady state level of per capita income.     

经常项目逆差与金融危机关系分析

文章从经常项目角度对金融危机进行了理论探讨,分析了经常项目逆差产生的原因及导致金融危机的原理,并在此基础上对美国金融危机进行了实证分析,认为美国经常项目仍然是美国金融危机爆发的关键原因。