Efficiency of the office properties market

This paper reports the results of an efficient markets test of the Dallas-Fort Worth office properties market. ARIMA models using a comprehensive data set did not produce superior forecasts. The results provide further evidence of the efficiency of real estate markets.     

Impacts of alternative degrees of freedom corrections in two and three stage least squares

There is a lack of uniformity concerning the appropriate degrees of freedom to use in estimating simultaneous equations. This issue is examined through a Monte Carlo study comparing estimates and inferences obtained using alternative choices of degrees of freedom in two and three stage least squares. While 2SLS estimates do not depend upon this choice, 3SLS estimates do. However, in the study the choice had little impact on 3SLS estimates. But the results strongly suggest that approximate tests conventionally used are much more accurate for both methods if estimated variances account for lost degrees of freedom.     

Welfare effects of insurance contract non-performance

Non-performance lies at the heart of much of the regulation that insurance companies face. Consumers’ concerns about non-performance of the insurance provider have also been cited as a possible explanation for low demand of microinsurance. We provide a behavioral evaluation of the welfare effects of non-performance risk. We test the hypothesis that the presence of non-performance risk negatively impacts not just take-up of insurance but more importantly the welfare of the insured. We also test if violations of the reduction of compound lotteries axiom could drive this decrease in take-up and welfare. The results show that the compound risk characteristic of non-performance risk does not significantly decrease the welfare of insurance choices made by individuals. This counter-intuitive result is sensitive to the structural modeling of risk preferences. If one assumes the reduction of compound lotteries axiom does characterize behavior towards risk, one finds evidence that non-performance risk reduces welfare for the insured. But if one correctly allows for violations in that axiom in the representation of risk preferences, which is appropriate if one is going to test for the effect of compound risk from non-performance, then the counter-intuitive result is obtained. Take-up is not a reliable proxy for welfare, and the behavioral drivers of take-up are again not the same drivers of welfare. These results provide structural behavioral insight to inform normative policy design with respect to insurance regulation.     

Bananas, Beef, and Biotechnology: Three Contentious U.S.–EU Trade Disputes

Trade disputes between the European Union and the United States over bananas, beef, and biotechnology stem from rent-seeking by special interests, consumers' fears about food safety, and mistrust of government regulation and enforcement. The unwillingness of the European Union to abide by the decisions of the dispute settlement panels threatens the integrity of the World Trade Organization, whose fundamental weakness is its inability to resolve conflicts when the contracting parties disagree with the findings of the dispute settlement body due to overriding domestic political concerns.     

An Economic Analysis of the Returns to Canadian Swine Research: 1974–97

This paper reports a new set of estimates of the returns to swine research in Canada. These estimates are obtained using Agriculture and Agri‐Food Canada's Canadian Regional Agricultural Model (CRAM). Positive Mathematical Programming is incorporated into the model for use in this study. The CRAM allows the effects of supply shifts from technological change in the hog industry to interact with product and factor market conditions in the rest of Canadian agriculture. Extensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the robustness of the return estimates under variations in some of the key assumptions employed in the analysis. The costs of public and private sector swine research are estimated. Public sector research costs are inclusive of the marginal excess burden of taxation. Overall, the estimated benefits from Canadian swine research are high relative to the estimated costs for the time period considered. Previous estimates of the returns to Canadian swine research were obtained by Huot et al. (1989) with a partial equilibrium model that did not allow for intra‐sectoral resource use adjustments. The estimated returns obtained in the present study are generally higher than those obtained by Huot et al. For example, the estimates obtained from the direct application of the econometrically estimated supply function in this study gave an internal rate of return of about 124% and a benefit‐cost ratio of 22.4 to 1. Huot et al reported comparable estimates of about 43% for the internal rate of return and 6–7 to 1 for the benefit‐cost ratio. The differences in returns are not solely attributable to the use of a multi‐market versus a single‐market partial equilibrium approach. There are also differences in the estimates of the marginal excess burden of taxation between the two studies. L'analyse que void présente une nouvelle série d'estimations quant au rendement de la recherche porcine au Canada. Ces estimations dérivent du Modèle d'analyse régionale de l'agriculture du Canada (MARAC) du ministère canadien de l'Agriculture et de l'Agroalimentaire. Aux fins de la présente étude, on avait intégré au modèle une programmation mathématique positive. Le MARAC autorise l'interaction entre les retombées d'une modification de l'offre attribuable au virage technologique de l'industrie porcine et les conditions du marché des produits et des facteurs dans le reste de l'agriculture canadienne. Les auteurs ont effectué une analyse de sensibilité poussée en vue d'établir la robustesse de leurs estimations quand variaient quelques‐unes des principales hypotheses de l'analyse. On a estimé le coût de la recherche sur les pores poursuivie par les secteurs public et privé. Dans le secteur public, le coût de la recherche incluait une charge fiscale légérement excessive. Dans l'ensemble, la recherche sur les porcs entreprise au Canada a rapporté beaucoup comparativement à ce qu'elle a coûté pendant la période à l'étude. Les estimations antérieures, établies par Huot et ses collaborateurs (1989), venaient d'un modèle àéquilibre partiel ne permettant aucun ajustement pour l'utilisation intra‐sectorielle des ressources. Les revenus estimés ici sont généralement plus élevés que ceux de Huot et de ses collaborateurs. Ainsi, une application directe de l'offre estimée par des méthodes économétriques à l'analyse donne un taux de rendement interne d'environ 124 % et un indice de rentabilité de 22,4 pour 1. À titre de comparaison, Huot et ses collaborateurs rapportent des résultats d'environ 43 % pour le taux de rendement interne et de 6 à 7 pour 1 en ce qui concerne l'indice de rentabilité. Pareil écart ne résulte pas uniquement du choix d'un modèle àéquilibre partiel reposant sur plusieurs marchés au lieu d'un seul; on relève aussi des variations dans l'estimation du léger excès de la charge fiscale entre les deux études.     

Technology and Flexibility: Enablers of Collaboration and Time‐Based Logistics Quality

Collaboration has been cited as one of the most important elements in leveraging supply chains to achieve competitive advantage. Literature in the field of collaboration tends to focus on strategic level initiatives; this research examines the benefits of implementing collaborative approaches at the logistics operations level. We find that leading strategic indicators, including technological innovativeness, technological complementarity, and flexibility are positively related to higher levels of collaboration and logistics service quality at the operational level in retail firms.     

THE GROWTH OF INSTITUTIONAL STOCK OWNERSHIP: A PROMISE UNFULFILLED

Despite the substantial growth of institutional ownership of U.S. corporations in the past 20 years, there is little evidence that institutional investors have acquired the kind of concentrated ownership positions required to be able to play a dominant role in the corporate governance process. Institutional ownership remains widely dispersed among firms and institutions in large part because of significant legal obstacles that discourage institutional investors both from taking large block positions and from exercising large ownership positions to control corporate managers. Thus, although much of the growth of institutional ownership since 1980 has been accounted for by the growth of mutual funds and private pension funds, there continue to be strong deterrents to the accumulation and use of large ownership positions to influence corporate managers. Another potentially important factor discouraging concentrated investments are incentive schemes that effectively reward money managers for producing returns that do not vary much from the S&P 500 (or whatever sector the manager is supposed to be representing). Using a very different incentive scheme that offers managers a share of the excess returns (as well as penalties for failure to meet benchmarks), a relatively new class of “hedge funds” has emerged that provides both more concentrated ownership positions and higher risk‐adjusted rates of return. To encourage mutual funds to take a more activist corporate governance role and to behave more like hedge funds, the authors recommend that current legal restrictions on mutual funds be relaxed so that mutual funds have a greater incentive to hold large ownership positions in companies and to use those positions to more effectively monitor corporate managers. In particular, the “five and ten” portfolio rules applicable to mutual funds could be repealed and replaced with a standard of prudence and diligence more in keeping with portfolio theory; mutual funds could be given greater freedom to adopt redemption policies that would be more conducive to holding larger ownership positions; and institutional investors could be permitted to employ a variety of incentive fee structures to encourage fund managers to pursue more pro‐active investment strategies. The prospect of actively involving institutional fund managers in the corporate governance process may be our best hope for improving U.S. corporate governance.     

Millennium Project's draft scenarios for the next 1000 years

In cooperation with The Foundation For the Future, The Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University has collected and rated factors that may influence the long-term (1000 years) future of humanity via the “Millennium 3000 Panel” of 100 advanced thinkers around the world. Their judgements have been organized into six first draft scenario sketches, of which three are presented in this paper.