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Much research studies US inflation history with a trend‐cycle model with unobserved components, where the trend may be viewed as the Fed's evolving inflation target or long‐horizon expected inflation. We provide a novel way to measure the slowly evolving trend and the cycle (or inflation gap), by combining inflation predictions from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) with realized inflation. The SPF forecasts may be treated either as rational expectations (RE) or updating according to a sticky information (SI) law of motion. We estimate RE and SI state‐space models with stochastic volatility on samples of consumer price index and gross national product/gross domestic product deflator inflation and the associated SPF inflation predictions using a particle Metropolis–Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. The trend converges to 2% and its volatility declines over time—two tendencies largely complete by the late 1990s.     

All eyes on you: The social audience and hedonic adaptation

Marketers have a keen interest in keeping customers happy past the point of product acquisition. However, consumer happiness with products typically declines over time, a process called “hedonic adaptation.” Understanding this process is essential for managing consumers' post-acquisition experiences, and yet marketers have not explored how the ubiquitous social environment influences hedonic adaptation. We explore the effect of a social audience (i.e., the presence of others and the perception that those others are noticing you) on adaptation to positive products using two real-world studies and one lab study. We show that a social audience can slow hedonic adaptation by cuing consumers to believe that others are admiring their product. This perceived admiration, in turn, helps consumers see the product through fresh, unadapted eyes. These findings help clarify the role of the consumption environment in adaptation, help explain why product happiness can vary by consumer over time, and show that the effects of social forces do not always occur at the moment of product acquisition.     

Should I stay or should I go? A latent threshold approach to large‐scale mixture innovation models

We propose a straightforward algorithm to estimate large Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions with mixture innovation components for each coefficient in the system. The computational burden becomes manageable by approximating the mixture indicators driving the time‐variation in the coefficients with a latent threshold process that depends on the absolute size of the shocks. Two applications illustrate the merits of our approach. First, we forecast the US term structure of interest rates and demonstrate forecast gains relative to benchmark models. Second, we apply our approach to US macroeconomic data and find significant evidence for time‐varying effects of a monetary policy tightening.     

INTEREST RATE PASS‐THROUGH: A META‐ANALYSIS OF THE LITERATURE

The interest rate pass‐through describes how changes in a reference rate (the monetary policy, money market or T‐bill rate) transmit to bank lending rates. We review the empirical literature on the interest rate pass‐through and systematize it by means of meta‐analysis and meta‐regressions. Using the pass‐through to corporate lending rates as the baseline, we find systematically lower estimated pass‐through coefficients in studies that focus on the pass‐through to consumer lending rates and rates on long‐term loans. Also studies estimating the pass‐through by averaging all lending rates into one category report a lower pass‐through. Importantly, the interest rate pass‐through is significantly influenced by the country's macro‐financial environment. In economies with deepening stock markets, the estimated pass‐through strengthens significantly. Interestingly, after the global financial crisis, the pass‐through weakened across the board, including because of growing trade openness and supply chain financing, rising volatility and stock market turnovers, as well as declining central bank independence. Inflation targeting frameworks, if in place, helped diminish this pass‐through weakening.     

Union Commitment and Activism in Britain and the United States: Searching for Synthesis and Synergy for Renewal

We propose a fuller synthesis between two relatively disjointed literatures to create synergy. Union commitment research has a long tradition and a relatively rigorous orientation grounded in industrial psychology. Recently, it has been eclipsed by emerging research on union renewal, and specifically that on union organizing. Renewal research has largely ignored union commitment research even though union renewal literature stresses the importance of activism, and this concept is strongly linked to commitment. A critical synthesis of these literatures yields progress in terms of addressing key qualitative and quantitative aspects of the contemporary crisis of labour unionism. A tentative framework is constructed that stipulates the main components and variables, and offers guidance for future research.     

Cross hedging with stochastic correlation

This paper is concerned with the study of quadratic hedging of contingent claims with basis risk. We extend existing results by allowing the correlation between the hedging instrument and the underlying of the contingent claim to be random itself. We assume that the correlation process ρ evolves according to a stochastic differential equation with values between the boundaries −1 and 1. We keep the correlation dynamics general and derive an integrability condition on the correlation process that allows to describe and compute the quadratic hedge by means of a simple hedging formula that can be directly implemented. Furthermore, we show that the conditions on ρ are fulfilled by a large class of dynamics. The theory is exemplified by various explicitly given correlation dynamics.     

Prospective utility study of patients with multiple cardiovascular events

Objectives: The effects of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) events on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and the time dependency of these effects are unknown. This study aimed to characterize health utilities in ACS patients to aid development of future economic models estimating the cost per quality-adjusted life-year impact of ACS events and potential treatments.

Methods: Multi-center, non-interventional, longitudinal evaluation of health utility in patients experiencing ACS or stroke events. EuroQol-5 dimension 3 level (EQ-5D-3L) surveys were sent to patients (≥18 years) from three UK centers, 1 month after hospital discharge for myocardial infarction (MI), unstable angina (UA), or stroke. Patient demographics, lifestyle, and baseline utility score were collected in the first survey. Follow-up surveys were sent at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months to prospectively capture utility and subsequent health events. Two methods of patient identification were adopted—prospective, where the patient’s qualifying events occurred after the study index date, and retrospective, where the patient’s qualifying event occurred prior to the study index date. General healthy population utility values were assumed for pre-event HRQoL.

Results: Between January 2011 and March 2014, 2,103 prospectively (n?=?1,350)/retrospectively (n?=?753) identified patients (mean age?=?68.3 years; 67.9% male) responded: MI?=?55.9% (n?=?1,176), UA?=?42.7% (n?=?898), stroke?=?1.4% (n?=?29); 24% had type 2 diabetes. Post-event utility values were lower than general healthy population values, although significant differences in utility between subsequent 6 (n?=?1,031, change?=?–0.002), 12 (n?=?1,096, change?=?–0.008), 18 (n?=?1,246, change?=?–0.007), and 24 (n?=?1,277, change?=?–0.004) month timepoints were not detected. Through multivariate regression analyses, wheelchair use, current smoking, and secondary mental and joint health events were associated with the greatest statistically significant utility decrements.

Conclusions: This study indicates that health utility decreases following a cardiovascular event and, although some improvement occurs over the subsequent 24 months, general healthy population utility is not necessarily attained.     

Intra‐household allocation of parental leave

We introduce childcare sharing in a collective model of household behaviour to investigate which factors make spouses increase or decrease their share of parental leave. The concern about future consumption motivates parents to invest in their human capital and to limit their leave duration. Using relative income and the age difference between spouses as distribution factors, we cannot reject Pareto efficiency in childcare sharing. Higher relative incomes and larger age differences shift the conditional leave allocation towards the relatively poorer and younger partner, respectively. Households with higher total income purchase more professional childcare.     

Standards issues in data communications

The lack of development in standards and compatibility in the field of data communication and processing requires urgent attention. The author discusses the compatibility issues that arise from the introduction of packet-switching networks, which typify the growing interdependence of computer and communication technologies. Focusing on Canada as a case example, he examines issues relating to the compatibility between the communication services offered by different networks and communication functions used for distributed data processing, and also between the procedures employed to provide these services and functions.